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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Why don't you guys just use an avatar?



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@Farsala,
Yes, I agree. Japan is singlehandedly boosting Switch sales in 2023. For comparison:
Japan from January-end of October 2023 Nintendo sold approximately 3.25 million Switch units.
While the US has sold approximately 3.57 million Switch units
Europe (from Jan-end of Sept 2023) sold 2.52 million Switch units.


As of Sept 30,2023 Japan has sold 31.77 million Nintendo Switch units. That's ~25% of the population, but around 64% of those that would buy a Switch (10-30 years of age). So in Japan 1 in 4 people own a Nintendo Switch (and 1 in 2 children & young adults own a Switch). Those are some insane numbers.

In the US it has sold 51.03 million Nintendo Switch units. That's 15% of the population, but around 33% of those who would buy a Switch (10-30 years of age).

Im surprised how many are sold in Japan and I believe that Japan will become the sole booster for holiday 2023, most likely selling around 2 million more in these two months. People in the US I guess are just struggling to live and enjoy luxuries like video games.

Ok so according to what you wrote with the YoY Q3, we should see this for the Q3 of this year:

Japan: 2.09 > 1.88 (-10%)
Americas: 3.07 > 2.45 (-20%)
Europe: 2.42 > 1.69 (-30%)
Others: 0.65 > 0.32 (-50%)
Total: 8.22 > 6.35 (-23%)

That's not looking good.

I still want to stand strong on my 7.3 million remark regarding the Q3 this year.
And thanks for giving me some more insight as to the scenario the Switch is in.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

IcaroRibeiro said:

Why don't you guys just use an avatar?

I dont know how to. plz help
When I go to Avatar settings, there isnt anything, its blank.

(i just figured out how to quote, yay)

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 16 November 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Why don't you guys just use an avatar?

I dont know how to. plz help
When I go to Avatar settings, there isnt anything, its blank.

(i just figured out how to quote, yay)

I'm not sure if this will help, but this is how I've done it.  

On the top left hover over your profile square till this pops up and select the Settings on the bottom right.

Then on this screen click on the green box with the white lines.  (circled)

Then select Avatar Settings 

This will be there somewhere, select Upload New Avatar

You will then get this screen where you can drop a file or an image in to.  It will appear in the bottom square once you put it the top white rectangle section.  

You can move your pic around and adjust the size of the square on the bottom.  Once you like how it looks , save New Avatar.

I'm also in dark mode, so the colors may look different to you if you are in light mode.  

Last edited by DroidKnight - on 16 November 2023

...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

DroidKnight said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I dont know how to. plz help
When I go to Avatar settings, there isnt anything, its blank.

(i just figured out how to quote, yay)

I'm not sure if this will help, but this is how I've done it.  

On the top left hover over your profile square till this pops up and select the Settings on the bottom right.

Then on this screen click on the green box with the white lines.  (circled)

Then select Avatar Settings 

This will be there somewhere, select Upload New Avatar

You will then get this screen where you can drop a file or an image in to.  It will appear in the bottom square once you put it the top white rectangle section.  

I'm also in dark mode, so the colors may look different to you if you are in light mode.  

Thank you! I found it. I hope you have an excellent day!



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Torpoleon said:

@ShadowLink93 7.5 million seems pretty optimistic in my opinion. I personally don't even think they will sell 7 million Switch units this holiday. I'm thinking it will be around 6.75 million (and then they'll sell probably 2 million or close to it in Jan-Mar 2024 and reach their 15 million target). I just see holiday sales dropping by over 1 million this holiday compared to last holiday, even with all the bundles this time around. I mean the system has already sold over 130 million. With that in mind, I do see holiday 2023 being the lowest selling holiday for the Switch up to this point (obviously future holidays will be lower).

Agree that 7.5 million is very optimistic, I'd be happy with 6.75 million though. For me if Switch is below 6.5 million then that would be disappointing.



Personally, I think people are underestimating Switch's holiday season. Sure, I don't think it will be above 8M, but I do believe that 7.25-7.5M is highly likely.

Here is why I feel this way: Mario Wonder had the highest initial sales for a Mario game, but the user base for the Switch is extremely high right now and software sales are still very high too...yet Mario Wonder really wasn't as performant it seems like it should have been based on this information. Marios popularity hasn't declined given the fact that the Mario movie is the highest grossing movie based on a videogame and, I believe, the second highest grossing animated film ever made. In addition, other Mario games have sold significantly more due to their evergreen status. But having an evergreen trajectory is a lot more difficult at the end of a consoles life as sales slow down. Which leads me to one conclusion, there are a lot of people waiting to purchase the game with the best bet being parents waiting to purchase it for the family or their children with a new Switch console.

Personally, I think we are going to see continued strong sales this holiday period with a sharper decline starting next year, particularly Q4 or Q1 as we hear continued rumbling and even possible announcements related to Switch 2



Shtinamin_ said:

@Farsala,
Yes, I agree. Japan is singlehandedly boosting Switch sales in 2023. For comparison:
Japan from January-end of October 2023 Nintendo sold approximately 3.25 million Switch units.
While the US has sold approximately 3.57 million Switch units
Europe (from Jan-end of Sept 2023) sold 2.52 million Switch units.


As of Sept 30,2023 Japan has sold 31.77 million Nintendo Switch units. That's ~25% of the population, but around 64% of those that would buy a Switch (10-30 years of age). So in Japan 1 in 4 people own a Nintendo Switch (and 1 in 2 children & young adults own a Switch). Those are some insane numbers.

In the US it has sold 51.03 million Nintendo Switch units. That's 15% of the population, but around 33% of those who would buy a Switch (10-30 years of age).

Im surprised how many are sold in Japan and I believe that Japan will become the sole booster for holiday 2023, most likely selling around 2 million more in these two months. People in the US I guess are just struggling to live and enjoy luxuries like video games.

Ok so according to what you wrote with the YoY Q3, we should see this for the Q3 of this year:

Japan: 2.09 > 1.88 (-10%)
Americas: 3.07 > 2.45 (-20%)
Europe: 2.42 > 1.69 (-30%)
Others: 0.65 > 0.32 (-50%)
Total: 8.22 > 6.35 (-23%)

That's not looking good.

I still want to stand strong on my 7.3 million remark regarding the Q3 this year.
And thanks for giving me some more insight as to the scenario the Switch is in.

Keep in mind also that many people share one console for the entire household, so the reach of people the Switch is reaching is higher than what individual unit sales numbers suggests.

With 51 Million Switches sold in the U.S that would mean that the Switch would be in 39% of U.S Households, so about 4/10 Americans own a Switch.

In Japan a whopping 57% of Households own a Switch with 32 Million Switches sold.

Also, Nintendo recently confirmed that there are 330 Million Nintendo accounts worldwide so the reach of the Switch is insanely huge.



Gonna be interesting to see when the Switch reaches the 155 Million mark and what will be considered the Switch becoming #1 all time in sales. Would it need to outsell PS2's last reported number of 155M units or would it need to outsell the estimated 159M unit figure to be considered #1?

I guess factually speaking the Switch would need to just outsell the 155M mark to be considered #1 cause if we use the estimated 159M fugure then it falls into the realm of speculation when debating if it is #1 which wouldn't be as credible for am argument that deals with hard confirmed facts.

However at the same time it is highly evident the PS2 sold more than 155M and it wouldn't be as honest to assume that Switch would just need to outsell the 155M number to be considered #1.

Gonna be interesting to see how it's debated and I think answering it will be big cause the gap between 155M to 159M could be huge in determining whether or not the Switch outsold the PS2.

Last edited by javi741 - on 17 November 2023

Shtinamin_ said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Why don't you guys just use an avatar?

I dont know how to. plz help
When I go to Avatar settings, there isnt anything, its blank.

(i just figured out how to quote, yay)

 Thanks for adding one. It was getting hard do keep up the conversation