Two weeks have passed since my last post in this thread. Since then we've been blessed with a Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct (game looks promising), plus today's announcement of value-added Switch bundles for North America and Europe.
North America will get Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for free with a standard Switch, Europe will get Nintendo Switch Sports with a standard Switch. Both continents will get Switch Lites in two colors with a free copy of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. All of these SKUs will be made available in October. Additionally, there's the global special edition of a red Mario-themed OLED model.
So Nintendo isn't sitting there doing nothing and watching Switch fade away. All the above things make it feasible to ship ~7m units of hardware during the holiday quarter and with the exception of the Mario OLED SKU, there doesn't seem to be a limit on the availability. This makes it possible to carry over the good momentum into 2024. Although one has to wonder why Nintendo doesn't offer MK8D and NSS as bundles in both North America and Europe. Oh well, they can still start to do that next year.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.