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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Two weeks have passed since my last post in this thread. Since then we've been blessed with a Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct (game looks promising), plus today's announcement of value-added Switch bundles for North America and Europe.

North America will get Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for free with a standard Switch, Europe will get Nintendo Switch Sports with a standard Switch. Both continents will get Switch Lites in two colors with a free copy of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. All of these SKUs will be made available in October. Additionally, there's the global special edition of a red Mario-themed OLED model.

So Nintendo isn't sitting there doing nothing and watching Switch fade away. All the above things make it feasible to ship ~7m units of hardware during the holiday quarter and with the exception of the Mario OLED SKU, there doesn't seem to be a limit on the availability. This makes it possible to carry over the good momentum into 2024. Although one has to wonder why Nintendo doesn't offer MK8D and NSS as bundles in both North America and Europe. Oh well, they can still start to do that next year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.



KLXVER said:

This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.

Nintendo wouldn't push the Switch family past 160m for the sake of bragging rights, but because it's the sound business choice to keep a highly profitable platform going for as long as it brings in a good amount of money. Becoming the best-selling system of all time would merely happen along the way.

The expectations towards Nintendo aren't going to change regardless of hitting 150m, 160m or 170m. Gamers want to play great games on a competently made system, shareholders want a highly profitable platform.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
KLXVER said:

This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.

Nintendo wouldn't push the Switch family past 160m for the sake of bragging rights, but because it's the sound business choice to keep a highly profitable platform going for as long as it brings in a good amount of money. Becoming the best-selling system of all time would merely happen along the way.

The expectations towards Nintendo aren't going to change regardless of hitting 150m, 160m or 170m. Gamers want to play great games on a competently made system, shareholders want a highly profitable platform.

Thats fair. I mean they could easily become the best selling console of all time. Pretty much anyone can, but it would probably not please investors.



KLXVER said:

Thats fair. I mean they could easily become the best selling console of all time. Pretty much anyone can, but it would probably not please investors.

Huh?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
KLXVER said:

Thats fair. I mean they could easily become the best selling console of all time. Pretty much anyone can, but it would probably not please investors.

Huh?

Nintendo could just sell the Switch for manufacture costs. They dont lose money and they would reach 160 million. But investors dont gain anything either.



KLXVER said:

This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.

Nintendo's ego would be more pleased by Switch as the most profitable console of all-time (it already is) than surpassing PS2's hardware units and making less profit. 

There's still a chance without price cuts before the successor that Switch's final units sold end up surpassing PS2. But it's not likely anymore. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
KLXVER said:

This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.

Nintendo's ego would be more pleased by Switch as the most profitable console of all-time (it already is) than surpassing PS2's hardware units and making less profit. 

There's still a chance without price cuts before the successor that Switch's final units sold end up surpassing PS2. But it's not likely anymore. 

Yeah, I think thats the smart move. Im sure they will give it a go in that kind of low effort Nintendo way, but its going to be tough.



KLXVER said:

This is a very interesting topic, but do you guys think Nintendo cares at all about the Switch becoming the best selling system of all time? Im sure it would be something they could brag about, but it also kinda sets them up to alot of expectations going forward.

From a business perspective they would appreciate the PR boost and being able to advertise the Switch 2 as the successor to the best selling console of all time but that's about it.



RolStoppable said:

Two weeks have passed since my last post in this thread. Since then we've been blessed with a Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct (game looks promising), plus today's announcement of value-added Switch bundles for North America and Europe.

North America will get Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for free with a standard Switch, Europe will get Nintendo Switch Sports with a standard Switch. Both continents will get Switch Lites in two colors with a free copy of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. All of these SKUs will be made available in October. Additionally, there's the global special edition of a red Mario-themed OLED model.

So Nintendo isn't sitting there doing nothing and watching Switch fade away. All the above things make it feasible to ship ~7m units of hardware during the holiday quarter and with the exception of the Mario OLED SKU, there doesn't seem to be a limit on the availability. This makes it possible to carry over the good momentum into 2024. Although one has to wonder why Nintendo doesn't offer MK8D and NSS as bundles in both North America and Europe. Oh well, they can still start to do that next year.

In previous years both regions got the MK8D bundle for Black Friday. This would be the first time Europe doesn't get it assuming it doesn't come later in November.