A lot of good points, in the end if Switch 2 production doesn't heavly affect Switch 1 production, Switch will do 161m+, if Lite get a discount I can see 163m+

Has there ever been a video game console that did not get a price cut at all during its lifetime? It's insane that the Switch has never gotten a price cut. I know, I know people will talk about inflation and how the Switch Lite is kinda of a price cut, but I mean real price cut

160 million is a given at this point. It's now a question of when rather than if. The only way it doesn't happen is if Nintendo changes their mind and decides to cancel the Switch 1 relatively soon. The Switch has a lot more going for it now than the Wii did at the top of 2012, it also sold a couple million more in 2024 than the Wii in 2011 (and it was more or less dead after that point), and the zombie Wii went on to sell nearly 7 million more units in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

I think the question now is whether or not the Switch will breach the 160 million line by the end of the 2025 calendar year. Only 9.14 million sales needs to happen. That is something that could conceivably happen organically on the current course; and if they miss, then it's most likely 2026 that they pass. But there are a few shortcuts that Nintendo could do to guarantee it:
1. A permanent price cut - they still haven't played this card even once, this year is the best time if they're going to do it.
2. A cheap and well marketed family-aimed bundle that comes with 4 of Switch's main games (Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8, Mario Odyssey, and Animal Crossing NH) and a free voucher for two more games of the player's choice. Similar to the NES bundles of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
3. A new "entry level Switch 1" model - kind of like the mini-white PS1 released around the time of the PS2 to replace the old grey PSX. It could use hybrid Switch 1/2 tech, like magnetic joy cons that work on both consoles.
4. Switch TV for 175 USD.

Any one of those could boost sales by 3-7 million more units than the organic number for this year - so if the organic number is 8 million, then 11-15 million.

Yes, I think so too. It will now happen organically. The only thing Nintendo needs to do is continue producing the Switch. I'm very confident that Nintendo can sell 5.5 million units in the fiscal year 2026. If they manage to maintain the projected 11 million for this fiscal year, the total will already reach 157.82 million by the end of March 2026. From there, surpassing 160 million is practically guaranteed.

The only thing that can stop the SW1 from surpassing the PS2 is the SW2.

That launch price and what follows is going to make or break its legs.
If SW2 is $450-500, it's going to stumble a bit out of the gate, which will benefit SW1 because consumers will mostly stick with that system, which is going to make its post-SW2 launch legs even stronger and it should sell past the PS2 relatively smoothly.

If SW2 is $400 like the vast majority of rumors are predicting, then it's obviously going to be a lot tougher because $400 is widely considered to be "the sweet spot" or "just right" as far as what the market believes SW2's launch price should be. But it still has a reasonable shot at getting it done, genuinely 50/50 - assuming they don't give the SW1 models a price cut.

If SW2 is $350, (unlikely but there's always a chance), then that would significantly cripple SW1's legs to the point where I don't think it catches the PS2. Even with price cuts, it would be very difficult. No price cuts? Not a chance.

It will be #1 by end of this year or early 2026!!!

The only thing we can say for sure is that production will last at least till the end of march 2027. If sales go worse and it does not catch the PS2, first i do not see the Switch under 152 million by march! In the worst case scenario, Switch would do another 4 million this year, despite Switch 2. That woud put it at 156 million for march 2026. I just cannot see Switch selling under 1 million in FY 2026/27 reachting a total minimum of 157 million units! Imagine if anyone told you in october 2016 that the 3DS sucessor would sell 157 million LTD MINUMUM?!
In the other case- 152 million by march is basically guaranteed- i see 5- 6 million this year (7 seems a bit high but who knows) bringing Switch's total to 157- 158 million by march 2026 . Then 2- 3 million would be the floor for next year alone bringing the Switch to 159- 160 million. With its remaining shipments it should pass this number setting in for 160- 160,8 million LTD passing the PS2. Clearly there will be some deluded fanboys around the internet claiming all of these alleged 160,6 produced million had sold through, but media will crown the Switch as Nr.1.
Anyway we all agree that the DS will fall. I am putting my head under the guillotineblade for this fact!

The Switch did get a price cut, it went from $299.99 to $259.99 in the US. €330 to €300 in Europe and £280 to £260 in the UK. I’m not sure about Japan but it should be noted the Switch launch price converts to just under $200 in Japan, and at one point the currency conversion was around $180.

Even the OLED version appears to have had a stealth price cut as I can see it on Amazon right with an rrp of £279.99(launched at £309.99) and available at £265.49. The Switch lite is available for £170 too, and these are the official Nintendo store on Amazon prices, so they’re just sold at these prices all year round by Nintendo it appears.

I like your optimism but what makes you so sure? Ok by going from Nintendo's selling handhelds in the past after their sucessor came out we can say 7- 10 million should be in the box, because depending on the launch date i just can't see Switch under 153- 154 million before Switch 2 even LAUNCHES!! Expect Nintendo does something incredibly stupid by cutting Switch off before their sucessor even arrives wich we can basically 100% exclude Switch should take the crown in the end but i don't see it before march 2027.

I do not say that 160 millon+ is a given like you but if that year somehow turns out to be at least average i am really starting to think revising my LTD minimum up to 160 million+ but i am not quite there yet. Anyway i carefully upped my 155 million+ LTD by march 2027 to 157 million+ by march 2027 for now.

Where are you seeing a Switch price cut in US to $259.99? In my area (west coast) it has been $299 since launch and has never budged from that price. OLED is $349.