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killer7 on 16 February 2025
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Jumpin said:

160 million is a given at this point. It's now a question of when rather than if. The only way it doesn't happen is if Nintendo changes their mind and decides to cancel the Switch 1 relatively soon. The Switch has a lot more going for it now than the Wii did at the top of 2012, it also sold a couple million more in 2024 than the Wii in 2011 (and it was more or less dead after that point), and the zombie Wii went on to sell nearly 7 million more units in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

I think the question now is whether or not the Switch will breach the 160 million line by the end of the 2025 calendar year. Only 9.14 million sales needs to happen. That is something that could conceivably happen organically on the current course; and if they miss, then it's most likely 2026 that they pass. But there are a few shortcuts that Nintendo could do to guarantee it:
1. A permanent price cut - they still haven't played this card even once, this year is the best time if they're going to do it.
2. A cheap and well marketed family-aimed bundle that comes with 4 of Switch's main games (Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8, Mario Odyssey, and Animal Crossing NH) and a free voucher for two more games of the player's choice. Similar to the NES bundles of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
3. A new "entry level Switch 1" model - kind of like the mini-white PS1 released around the time of the PS2 to replace the old grey PSX. It could use hybrid Switch 1/2 tech, like magnetic joy cons that work on both consoles.
4. Switch TV for 175 USD.

Any one of those could boost sales by 3-7 million more units than the organic number for this year - so if the organic number is 8 million, then 11-15 million.

I like your optimism but what makes you so sure? Ok by going from Nintendo's selling handhelds in the past after their sucessor came out we can say 7- 10 million should be in the box, because depending on the launch date i just can't see Switch under 153- 154 million before Switch 2 even LAUNCHES!! Expect Nintendo does something incredibly stupid by cutting Switch off before their sucessor even arrives wich we can basically 100% exclude Switch should take the crown in the end but i don't see it before march 2027.

I do not say that 160 millon+ is a given like you but if that year somehow turns out to be at least average i am really starting to think revising my LTD minimum up to 160 million+ but i am not quite there yet. Anyway i carefully upped my 155 million+ LTD by march 2027 to 157 million+ by march 2027 for now.

Last edited by killer7 - on 16 February 2025