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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

tsogud on 14 November 2022
RolStoppable said:

2017: 14.86m/14.86m LTD
2018: 17.41m/32.47m
2019: 20.22m/52.49m
2020: 27.38m/79.87m
2021: 23.67m/103.54m

2022: 20.00m/123.54m
2023: 18.00m/141.54m
2024: 12.00m/153.54m
2025: 5.00m/158.54m
2026: 1.50m/160.04m

So let's see how it holds up:

After Nintendo's downward revision for the current fiscal year, Switch is on pace to hit ~124m shipped by the end of December 2022, so in line with the modest expectations above.

Breath of the Wild slipped into 2023 as expected, but 2022's holiday game doesn't come from EAD Tokyo; it's the next generation of Pokémon which I assumed to release in late 2023. Doesn't really matter though, because at the moment it's just two games of similar caliber swapping places. There's still no reason to anticipate a Switch successor in 2023, rather there is more reason to expect 2024 or later due to the Mario Kart 8 DLC that got announced after the above post had been written; said DLC runs through the whole of 2023. In short: While some people are back to doubting 160m+ after Nintendo's latest financial report, I am not flustered by the lower numbers, because I didn't calculate with everything playing out in the best way possible to begin with.

Of course the next Switch revision will be key to keep 2023 at a high level, but it would be pretty insane of Nintendo to bungle Switch's late life after they squeezed everything out of the 3DS just one generation before. There were six 3DS models, Switch is at only three as of now and Switch is much more successful than the 3DS ever was. One important thing that I had said in the original post of this thread is that a Switch Pro would turn most doubters into believers. I don't know if Nintendo will go for such a substantial upgrade, but Switch's final revision being 2021's OLED model would be just sad, so there has to be at least something else.

What I do know is that price cuts are off the table after this year of record inflation in the USA and Europe, so that's something we definitely won't see in 2023. But value-added bundles would work: Same hardware prices, but with a pack-in game.

As for 2023's software lineup, we don't know anything beyond May, but what has been confirmed is solid. Fire Emblem, Octopath Traveller 2, Kirby, Tears of the Kingdom. That's not shabby for the first few months of the year and there's of course a bunch of third party titles too. Ideally, a Switch revision should launch with Tears of the Kingdom because it just makes sense.

Ah okay yeah I somewhat remember your logic now. When I read your op back when you first posted I believe I ended up agreeing with your points and conclusion. After seeing the latest report and with inflation pretty much guaranteeing no price cuts, which I personally believed was gonna happen. I'm not so sure it'll even pass PS2 sales now. About 155m is my guess. I could see it going to 160m+ but that largely depends on 2 factors, a new Switch sku (Switch pro or something similar) and the successors launch date. 

Best case scenario if Switch is to have a chance at passing 160m, is if a new Switch sku releases Spring of next year to coincide with Zelda's release. Then the Switch 2 releases Holiday 2024. I would say Spring 2025 for Switch 2 if they really want to milk it but even in the best case scenario that won't happen. So that gives Switch all of 2023 and a good chunk of 2024 being Nintendo's only premier console on the market.

Realistically speaking though we don't know if a new Switch sku is even in the cards atp. Coupled with the big possibility that Switch 2 is launching Spring 2024, and I just don't see 160m+ happening.

With that in mind my prediction as of now:

2022:~20m/~124m LTD

2023:~17m/~141m

2024:~9m/~150m

2025 and beyond: ~5m/~155m

I think Switch sales are going to plummet without a price cut, no new Switch sku and Switch 2 releasing Spring 2024. I thought maybe Nintendo could pick it up and sell more in Europe but it seems they're the hardest region for Nintendo atm.



 

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javi741 on 08 January 2023

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2.

Also, I consider the Switch to be the most truly successful gaming platform because it was able to sell so many units without needing any sort of price cut despite the expensive 300$ price point. The PS2 and DS needed to be impulse buy cheap at around ~99$ for much of its life to sell as much as they did, by the time the PS2 and DS reached 120M they were already priced at around 99$(~140$ In 2023). The Switch is approaching 120M sold STILL at its same launch price at 300$ with the 300-350$ models of the switch being by far the most appealing, that really goes to show you just how much of a strong appeal there is with the Switch for such a large consumer base since there is still such a large market for the Switch despite already selling 120M and still being priced at 300-350$.

The Switch also sold this much at this high of a price without needing to rely on an essential non-gaming feature like the PS2 where a good portion of consumers purchased the PS2 with the main intent of using it as a DVD player, didn't need to rely on multiple completely different and cheap iterations like what we saw with the DS,DS Lite,DSi, and the Switch is viewed as more of a home console by consumers rather than a handheld as proven by the much higher sales of the Switch & Switch Oled despite the much higher price, which also shows that Switch sales are nowhere near as inflated as the DS since the Switch isn't purchased as much per person and is purchased more per household since many players are electing to pay extra get the TV version of the Switch, which is the version that's far more likely to be shared amongst the household than a DS. When it comes to the shear amount of users who purchase and utilize a gaming platform with the main intent of playing games, Switch could be considered #1 despite being #3 in the console sales ranking

Last edited by javi741 - on 09 January 2023

znake on 08 January 2023

They need new Mario this year and 160m will come after 2024 holidays



DaAndy on 08 January 2023
javi741 said:

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles never had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2. [...]

You got any source or further information for that? Would be very, very interesting to see a comparison. :)

Switch climbing up to 160 Million is still not out of reach. There are still many stories to be told.

Lets first wait how 2023 is doing in terms of sales numbers and if there will be any official announcement of "Switch 2" (working name^^) in 2023.



Norion on 08 January 2023

At this point I'm thinking it'll get close but fall just short of this. With a 2024 holiday launch I expect that it'd be close to 150m by the end of that year but assuming the successor is backwards compatible I doubt it'll sell over 10m after it launches so even if it's that far off still I imagine it'll get pretty close to becoming number 1 but not quite reach it. With a 2025 launch it'd for sure do it though but I doubt Nintendo will wait that long.

2022: 121m

2023: 136m

2024: 146m

2025+: 155m 

This is a reasonable scenario of where it'll end up so overtaking the DS is in play but overtaking the PS2 seems unlikely.

Last edited by Norion - on 08 January 2023

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Kakadu18 on 08 January 2023
DaAndy said:
javi741 said:

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles never had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2. [...]

You got any source or further information for that? Would be very, very interesting to see a comparison. :)

The green bars are net income, so profit.



Slownenberg on 08 January 2023
javi741 said:

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles never had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2.

Also, I consider the Switch to be the most truly successful gaming platform because it was able to sell so many units without needing any sort of price cut despite being at a premium price of 300$. The PS2 and DS needed to be impulse buy cheap at around ~99$ for much of its life to sell as much as they did, by the time the PS2 and DS reached 120M they were already priced at around 99$(~140$ In 2023). The Switch is approaching 120M sold STILL at its same launch price at 300$ with the 300-350$ models of the switch being by far the most appealing, that really goes to show you just how much of a strong appeal there is with the Switch for such a large consumer base since there is still such a large market for the Switch despite already selling 120M and still being priced at 300-350$.

The Switch also sold this much at this high of a price without needing to rely on an essential non-gaming feature like the PS2 where a good portion of consumers purchased the PS2 with the main intent of using it as a DVD player, didn't need to rely on multiple completely different and cheap iterations like what we saw with the DS,DS Lite,DSi, and the Switch is viewed as more of a home console by consumers rather than a handheld as proven by the much higher sales of the Switch & Switch Oled despite the much higher price, which also shows that Switch sales are nowhere near as inflated as the DS since the Switch isn't purchased as much per person and is purchased more per household since many players are electing to pay extra get the TV version of the Switch, which is the version that's far more likely to be shared amongst the household than a DS. When it comes to the shear amount of users who purchase and utilize a gaming platform with the main intent of playing games, Switch could be considered #1 despite being #3 in the console sales ranking

I think you pretty much nailed it.

For sure DS and PS2 needed that super low $100 price tag to get up to 150+ million, and PS2 kept selling a long time after PS3 came out and it probably helped that Sony royally screwed up with the PS3 at $600 I'm sure that helped PS2 keep selling well into its post-life, and it helped that plenty of PS2's broke (though not nearly as bad as PS1, PS2 was still a fairly poorly put together system and many people needed to buy a replacement) so people had to buy a second one for that, and of course lots of people bought PS2 because to use as a DVD player because somehow it was cheap even just for a DVD player.

Switch has a little bit of the DS handheld extra sales for sure in which there are multiple models and different graphics on models so some people buy more than one just to collect, and no doubt some parents buy multiple Lite's for their children or maybe have a hybrid model for the family and then a Lite(s) specifically for children. But once Switch gets over 140m I'd say, given the points you pointed out, that'll be more impressive than both DS and PS2's numbers. Though it sure would be nice for Switch to top PS2 and leave no argument at all that it is the most successful system ever, especially since it without a doubt will end up selling the most software ever.

Like, imagine if instead of launching Switch 2 in 2024 Nintendo dropped the Lite to $140, the original to $200 and the OLED to $250, or something like that at the beginning of 2024. And on top of that dropped a ton of first party games to $30. And then launched Switch 2 in 2025 but kept making the Switch for a few years and did another small price cut after the Switch 2 launch. That's the sort of aggressive competitive moves that would put it close to on par with the type of stuff DS and PS2 did, and Switch would probably end up selling like >170m doing that stuff.

Anyway, at this point I doubt Switch will hit 160m, but 150m is definitely doable. I think it'll likely just barely pass 150m and fall shy of the DS. If Switch 2 launches holiday 2024 I bet Switch could be in the 146-148m range by end of 2024 and maybe just pass 150m. Only question is, since Switch is unlikely to get a price cut, and Switch 2 will presumably probably come out at OLED's price point, will Nintendo just completely shut down Switch production (except for maybe the lower priced Lite) when Switch 2 launches? Or will they actually do a price cut on all the Switch models so that they can keep selling Switch HW for a while to the very late comers who are looking for cheap gaming?



Groundking on 20 January 2023
javi741 said:

Tbh even if the Switch doesn't end up becoming the greatest-selling console of all time. I still easily consider it the most truly successful gaming platform of all time. It is by far the most profitable console of all time, even the DS and Wii combined couldn't attain Switch-like profits. None of Sony's consoles had profits as high as the Switch right now, even the PS2.

Also, I consider the Switch to be the most truly successful gaming platform because it was able to sell so many units without needing any sort of price cut despite the expensive 300$ price point. The PS2 and DS needed to be impulse buy cheap at around ~99$ for much of its life to sell as much as they did, by the time the PS2 and DS reached 120M they were already priced at around 99$(~140$ In 2023). The Switch is approaching 120M sold STILL at its same launch price at 300$ with the 300-350$ models of the switch being by far the most appealing, that really goes to show you just how much of a strong appeal there is with the Switch for such a large consumer base since there is still such a large market for the Switch despite already selling 120M and still being priced at 300-350$.

The Switch also sold this much at this high of a price without needing to rely on an essential non-gaming feature like the PS2 where a good portion of consumers purchased the PS2 with the main intent of using it as a DVD player, didn't need to rely on multiple completely different and cheap iterations like what we saw with the DS,DS Lite,DSi, and the Switch is viewed as more of a home console by consumers rather than a handheld as proven by the much higher sales of the Switch & Switch Oled despite the much higher price, which also shows that Switch sales are nowhere near as inflated as the DS since the Switch isn't purchased as much per person and is purchased more per household since many players are electing to pay extra get the TV version of the Switch, which is the version that's far more likely to be shared amongst the household than a DS. When it comes to the shear amount of users who purchase and utilize a gaming platform with the main intent of playing games, Switch could be considered #1 despite being #3 in the console sales ranking

Doing this kind of comparison to PS2 and DS is uncharitable to those platforms, the population was a lot smaller back then and $299 back in 2001 was a LOT more than $299 is today. This isn't to take away from how amazing the Switch has sold.



nintendocentral on 20 January 2023

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/456049/nintendo-reportedly-planning-to-increase-switch-production/. If this is true, we should be seeing the Switch make up some crazy ground over the DS launch aligned over the next year or 2 even. I was starting to doubt if the Switch could pull it off (I thought it might pass the DS but fall just short of the PS2) but this looks promising. Next thing you know, we’ll be hearing the Switch outsold the PS4 in Europe. Wow.



rapsuperstar31 on 20 January 2023

I feel like it's going to end up selling right around 150 million all time, especially if a new system is coming by the end of 2024/early 2025. It will be close but I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch beats the PS2 by a million or just misses by a million unites.