RolStoppable said:
So let's see how it holds up: After Nintendo's downward revision for the current fiscal year, Switch is on pace to hit ~124m shipped by the end of December 2022, so in line with the modest expectations above. Breath of the Wild slipped into 2023 as expected, but 2022's holiday game doesn't come from EAD Tokyo; it's the next generation of Pokémon which I assumed to release in late 2023. Doesn't really matter though, because at the moment it's just two games of similar caliber swapping places. There's still no reason to anticipate a Switch successor in 2023, rather there is more reason to expect 2024 or later due to the Mario Kart 8 DLC that got announced after the above post had been written; said DLC runs through the whole of 2023. In short: While some people are back to doubting 160m+ after Nintendo's latest financial report, I am not flustered by the lower numbers, because I didn't calculate with everything playing out in the best way possible to begin with. Of course the next Switch revision will be key to keep 2023 at a high level, but it would be pretty insane of Nintendo to bungle Switch's late life after they squeezed everything out of the 3DS just one generation before. There were six 3DS models, Switch is at only three as of now and Switch is much more successful than the 3DS ever was. One important thing that I had said in the original post of this thread is that a Switch Pro would turn most doubters into believers. I don't know if Nintendo will go for such a substantial upgrade, but Switch's final revision being 2021's OLED model would be just sad, so there has to be at least something else. What I do know is that price cuts are off the table after this year of record inflation in the USA and Europe, so that's something we definitely won't see in 2023. But value-added bundles would work: Same hardware prices, but with a pack-in game. As for 2023's software lineup, we don't know anything beyond May, but what has been confirmed is solid. Fire Emblem, Octopath Traveller 2, Kirby, Tears of the Kingdom. That's not shabby for the first few months of the year and there's of course a bunch of third party titles too. Ideally, a Switch revision should launch with Tears of the Kingdom because it just makes sense. |
Ah okay yeah I somewhat remember your logic now. When I read your op back when you first posted I believe I ended up agreeing with your points and conclusion. After seeing the latest report and with inflation pretty much guaranteeing no price cuts, which I personally believed was gonna happen. I'm not so sure it'll even pass PS2 sales now. About 155m is my guess. I could see it going to 160m+ but that largely depends on 2 factors, a new Switch sku (Switch pro or something similar) and the successors launch date.
Best case scenario if Switch is to have a chance at passing 160m, is if a new Switch sku releases Spring of next year to coincide with Zelda's release. Then the Switch 2 releases Holiday 2024. I would say Spring 2025 for Switch 2 if they really want to milk it but even in the best case scenario that won't happen. So that gives Switch all of 2023 and a good chunk of 2024 being Nintendo's only premier console on the market.
Realistically speaking though we don't know if a new Switch sku is even in the cards atp. Coupled with the big possibility that Switch 2 is launching Spring 2024, and I just don't see 160m+ happening.
With that in mind my prediction as of now:
2022:~20m/~124m LTD
2023:~17m/~141m
2024:~9m/~150m
2025 and beyond: ~5m/~155m
I think Switch sales are going to plummet without a price cut, no new Switch sku and Switch 2 releasing Spring 2024. I thought maybe Nintendo could pick it up and sell more in Europe but it seems they're the hardest region for Nintendo atm.
