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Forums - Sony - PlayStation Hardware Future Roadmap Prediction

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, so let's see in a couple of years... but atm I think PS4/XB1 were kind of an anomaly. I don't see a current generation of "Pro" consoles as likely to be released as previous gen, for different reasons.

1. The OG PS4 and Xbox One had a "relatively" weak hardware for the time, they were built with a lower price point in mind and to be profitable (almost) right from the start (Xbox One even had corners cut to bundle Kinect). This is not the case anymore with PS5/Series X as they both have a more expensive and future-proof design. This time offering a "pro upgrade" with sensible advantages for the end-user would require a greater effort and an higher price tag.

2.  There is not a tech opportunity window for mid-gen refreshes. PS4 Pro and One X came with the arrival of 4K and HDR displays, PS5 and Serie X added HDMI 2.1 capabilities support. I don't see any imminent tech upgrade for the living room that could justify console upgrades.

3. There is less incentive on both parts for an upgrade. MS was evidently lagging in 2016-2017, they needed an opportunity to catch-up with new hardware. Sony on the other hand was interested to maintain their tech leadership for 3rd party games, so they've released their own 4k hardware proposal in advance, rather than running the risk of having to cut the price (and profits) of their vanilla console.
This time MS is much better positioned with a very competent console, new 1st party studios and Gamepass. Looking at acquisitions from both sides it seems like the competition is shifting from tech leadership to exclusive content leadership. Sony is likely interested to give a stronger push to their VR proposition (as it would give them the opportunity to offer even more exclusive content). If they released a "pro" upgrade it would most likely cannibalize thier own PSVR2 sales. MS already supports both and hi-end and a low-end SKU, adding another platform to support on top of that would over complicate things.

4. As others have stated, hardware shortages will slow things even more and will give even more incentives to Sony/MS to build "slim" versions with smaller dies, rather "pro" versions with large dies.

As for the PS5 roadmap I'm expecting.

- A slim version earlier than usual but with the same price tag (made to cut down costs and improve availability).

- Further down the line a "bigger" launch for the PSVR2, maybe alongside with the first price-cut of the vanilla console and the release of an alternate SKU with a larger SSD.

Last edited by freebs2 - on 20 December 2021

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Pemalite said:
Wman1996 said:

Sony has already halted almost all PS4 production in the last year due to supply constraints and to focus on the PS5. It seems like they kind of already have discontinued the PS4, but I think they actually will in 2022. If it wasn't for supply chain issues, I think they would've held out until 2023.

With shortages ranging from Ram to SoC's.. It makes sense that Gen 8 will be rapidly phased out to free up capacity.

Wman1996 said:

The PS3 and PS4 got Slim revisions about 3 years into their lifespans (it was longer for the PS1/PSOne gap and the PS2/PS2 Slim), and I think it will happen again with the PS5. Though I can see why many would think it won't happen until 2024 due to the current supply constraints and manufacturing costs. Sony would love to release the Slim as a digital-only device, but it seems even in 2021 the demand for optical drives is still high. I think Sony would make a lot of people mad if the PS5 Slim was digital-only. 

We will get a SLIM when it makes sense to do so... The reasons for a Slim console are many...

Consolidated components, shrunken chips, less components and a more optimized platform from a manufacturing standpoint makes them cheaper and easier to mass produce... So if the manufacturing aligns with everything, then I wouldn't be surprised if we get a Slim in the 2nd year of the consoles life.

Wman1996 said:

The All-Digital will be $350 and the Standard Slim will be $400. The All-Digital Slim will be roughly the size of a PS4 Pro, and the version with an optical drive will be slightly bigger. There will be later SKUS of the Slim that have 1.65 TB of included storage instead of 825 GB. Limited Edition Premium SKUs will have 2.475 TB of included storage. 


Storage doesn't need to be multiples of 825GB.
As long as the storage can equal the PS5's bandwidth, iops, latency etc', there will not be any issues.

512GB, 1TB, 2TB, 3TB are all possible.

Wman1996 said:

November 2027: PlayStation 6 launches

Had COVID-19 not happened, I would've expected Sony to go for a shorter generation and launch the PS6 in 2025 or 2026. But considering all the supply chain issues right now, I think they'll wait the 7 years they normally have waited for a while now. The PS6 will be digital-only. The most I could see Sony doing is offering an add-on accessory optical drive for watching movies, playing physical PS5 games and limited-run physical PS6 discs.

Sooner the better... The PS5 and Xbox Series X hardware is already coming up short in games... If there are no enhanced Pro devices, then I hope for a super short console generation so things dont stagnate.

 Surely the only thing that would stagnate would be console resolution and the 60fps target. 



Dulfite said:

PS7 vs. 4witch vs. Xbox Series XXX vs. Apple OP vs. Google Staydia is going to be epic in 2034.

*Apple OP is literally called that, their loyalists refer to it as overpowered to troll the others. The rest of us call it the Apple Overpriced.

*Google launches the Staydia, which has access to all Stadia games and is named the way it is because it stays in your home as a console.

I know, so true, I'll wait to 2034 before I play games.

I don't wanna play anything below 16k, full ray-traced at 240 fps.

I'm so happy to wait 13 years for those life's changing features.



Due to shortages and delays, I can actually see the PS6 not launching until 2028, so basically an eight year generation which would be 7 years if not for covid.

I do agree that we will see slim versions in a few years and I do think a pro might be unnecessary.

I hope this generation is not short.



Holiday 2022 - PS5 Slim
Holiday 2023 - Sony is working on PSVR2 and I expect a PS5 Pro to release along side of it. PS5 Pro to target 8k and flawless 4k 60 fps.

With the current chip shortage, I wouldn't be surprise to see a one year delay for PS5 Slim to 2023 and PS5 Pro to 2024.



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Kristof81 said:

While I believe that the PRO-like revision will happen, it's not going to be released as quickly as it was in the PS4 case (in less than 3 years since launch), for a few reasons.

-the 9th gen hardware isn't so anaemic, compared to today's PCs as the 8th gen was to 2013 PCs
-PS5 is in higher demand than the PS4 was
-the chip shortage and ridiculous GPU prices will affect graphics/hardware requirements progression in new games, meaning that your og PS5 will be more than enough for modern games for longer.

So many people claim that the Xbox One and PS4 were too weak for their time. But it's just because of 2013 PCs, right? Because Xbox One and PS4 were very clear generational leaps in performance from their predecessors, just as generational leaps had been before then. 

Maybe it wouldn't seem so apparent if we got Xbox One and PS4 in 2011 or 2012 with the same specs they ended up with.

I'll also mention that I completely forgot PSVR 2. The only prediction I'll make is the vague window of 2023-2024. There's little chance PSVR 2 launches in 2022, since we still know so little.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Sogreblute said:

They said that in mid 2017 just half a year after the Pro model launched. Also they said it was 1 out 5 PS4 models sold were Pros since it's launch not throughout the entire PS4's life. You also have to consider that over time that the ratio definitely decreased. So in 2018 it could be 1 Pro model out of 10 PS4s sold or worse. If I had to predict a number I would say they shipped less than 10m Pros throughout it's life.

Even assuming that PS4 Slim to PS4 Pro dropped off in favour of Slim model later down the gen, I still personally find it hard to believe that PS4 Pro didn't reach 10m lifetime sales. Just two facts that we have: PS4 sold around 60m consoles in the period from Slim/Pro launch until the end of 2019 - the period of time when PS4 reached it's peak. Just remember how great 2017 and 2018 has been for this console. And the more important fact - we have the data from Famitsu, the last I found, that PS4 Pro sold 1.5m+ in Japan alone. If it can sell that much in it's weakest market by far, it can sell way more in NA and especially Europe. Attaching the reference for Famitsu data from the article that I found via Google just in case to back up my words https://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2021/01/07/ps4-outsells-ps5-in-japan/



 

jenpol said:
Dulfite said:

PS7 vs. 4witch vs. Xbox Series XXX vs. Apple OP vs. Google Staydia is going to be epic in 2034.

*Apple OP is literally called that, their loyalists refer to it as overpowered to troll the others. The rest of us call it the Apple Overpriced.

*Google launches the Staydia, which has access to all Stadia games and is named the way it is because it stays in your home as a console.

I know, so true, I'll wait to 2034 before I play games.

I don't wanna play anything below 16k, full ray-traced at 240 fps.

I'm so happy to wait 13 years for those life's changing features.

Yeah, and it better be on a TV that is so thin you literally can't see it from the side. Also, I expect wifi 10, at least 4 petabytes of hard drive, foldable controllers, house-wide motion tracking, and fully integrated metaverse. If they don't have that stuff, they are a joke.



I expect this generation to be slightly longer than the last, a potential PS6 launch in 2028/2029, because of COVID hitting development + the semiconductor shortage.