Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, so let's see in a couple of years... but atm I think PS4/XB1 were kind of an anomaly. I don't see a current generation of "Pro" consoles as likely to be released as previous gen, for different reasons.
1. The OG PS4 and Xbox One had a "relatively" weak hardware for the time, they were built with a lower price point in mind and to be profitable (almost) right from the start (Xbox One even had corners cut to bundle Kinect). This is not the case anymore with PS5/Series X as they both have a more expensive and future-proof design. This time offering a "pro upgrade" with sensible advantages for the end-user would require a greater effort and an higher price tag.
2. There is not a tech opportunity window for mid-gen refreshes. PS4 Pro and One X came with the arrival of 4K and HDR displays, PS5 and Serie X added HDMI 2.1 capabilities support. I don't see any imminent tech upgrade for the living room that could justify console upgrades.
3. There is less incentive on both parts for an upgrade. MS was evidently lagging in 2016-2017, they needed an opportunity to catch-up with new hardware. Sony on the other hand was interested to maintain their tech leadership for 3rd party games, so they've released their own 4k hardware proposal in advance, rather than running the risk of having to cut the price (and profits) of their vanilla console.
This time MS is much better positioned with a very competent console, new 1st party studios and Gamepass. Looking at acquisitions from both sides it seems like the competition is shifting from tech leadership to exclusive content leadership. Sony is likely interested to give a stronger push to their VR proposition (as it would give them the opportunity to offer even more exclusive content). If they released a "pro" upgrade it would most likely cannibalize thier own PSVR2 sales. MS already supports both and hi-end and a low-end SKU, adding another platform to support on top of that would over complicate things.
4. As others have stated, hardware shortages will slow things even more and will give even more incentives to Sony/MS to build "slim" versions with smaller dies, rather "pro" versions with large dies.
As for the PS5 roadmap I'm expecting.
- A slim version earlier than usual but with the same price tag (made to cut down costs and improve availability).
- Further down the line a "bigger" launch for the PSVR2, maybe alongside with the first price-cut of the vanilla console and the release of an alternate SKU with a larger SSD.
Last edited by freebs2 - on 20 December 2021
