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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 47, 2021 - (15th Nov - 21st Nov)

TheBraveGallade said:
Otter said:

How can one determine the native demand for PS5 based off software sales if the global shortage is drawing consoles from the country? People do not buy software for platforms they don't own, but how many people want to own the platform? 

mostly casue the very low attach ratio in japan specifically, where there is a high phisical attatch ratio AND the cheapest place to buy the console, means that its very likely that a LOT of the consoles sold in japan are actually resold overseas.

plus, we are still in year 1, meaning its still early adopter boom stage so far.

But your attach ratio numbers are incredibly inaccurate.

You first do not know how many PS5s are being used by players vs being scalped.

You then ignore factors that could potentially change attach ratio from 50-100% (PS4 software, F2P software popularity, digital software).

How can anyone take these attach ratio estimates seriously when they have a potential upside error bound of 100-200% lol



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RolStoppable said:
Otter said:

How can one determine the native demand for PS5 based off software sales if the global shortage is drawing consoles from the country? People do not buy software for platforms they don't own, but how many people want to own the platform? 

We can derive from first year sales of the Vita and the PS4 that less than a million Japanese gamers would have wanted a PS5 during year 1, based on the PS5 lineup not being any more appealing than its predecessor's. If Japanese gamers were truly interested in the PS5, then there would be more effort from their side to get one and more effort from retailers to sell to Japanese gamers, because that way the retailers could sell games too.

We know that PS5's bought in Japan are exported afterwards, so it should go without saying that numbers from lotteries are inflated too.

curl-6 said:

I'm not sure I've ever bought into the notion that low supply increases sales. That one was often used against the Wii back in like 2007/2008 I recall, and even the Switch.

And I'm pretty sure several tech companies have said the chip shortage will persist into 2023 anyway.

You misunderstood my post. Too low supply in countries with actually high demand for the PS5 has resulted in PS5 consoles being bought in Japan for the sole purpose of being exported into countries where people want to own them (primarily mainland Asia and South America). This is why PS5 hardware and PS5 software sales in Japan are so out of sync with each other.

The situation is going to come to an end by either global demand being met or Sony stopping to ship more PS5s to Japan than there's demand for them among Japanese gamers. Due to the chip shortages the latter is more likely to happen sooner.

Okay, so if overshipping is driving PS5 hardware sales in Japan, and they're largely being exported by buyers from other countries, then what is Sony's motivation to stop sending so much to Japan?

Why should they care where it's sold to as long as they get their money and it goes to a consumer who'll go on to continue spending on it?

If they have no reason to change, what's to stop PS5 sales in Japan continuing at this rate?

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 December 2021