I really think that Nintendo will ship more than 5.5m units in Q2. It's tracking significantly ahead of 2019 and, unlike 2020, should have had the first week or so shipments of a new iteration launch (the OLED). I'm going to guess 5.75M hardware shipped.

Mario Golf will likely be around 3M sold. Skyward Sword will be around 4.5M. I don't think Game Builder Garage will sell over 1M copies. Animal Crossing and Mario Kart will have added another million or so.

5.5m could happen but we still have to remember 5m consoles sold in a non holiday quarter is very rare, only three consoles have ever done it . 9 times DS done it, 2 from Wii and 2 from Switch, this could be the third from Switch.

Really curious what Paper Mario The Origami King is doing. I wanna know if it had what it takes to beat out Super Paper Mario for best selling in the series.

Super Paper Mario - 4.23 mil

Latest Sales Updates for ToK
3,120,000 06th May 2021
3,050,000 01st Feb 2021
2,820,000 05th Nov 2020

Went up 70k last quarter, I don't know if this quarter is typically the weakest or not that we are about to get information on? I'd imagine next quarter and the one after are the two strongest (Q3/Q4)) but I could be wrong.

Regardless, it needs 1.1 mil more from May 2021 through probably March 2023 (if Switch 2 comes out 6 years later). Any sales after Switch 2 comes will probably be very small, unless they remaster it for the next system (which I highly doubt they will).

It helps more to see as of what date these sales updates are and not when they were published. The last one is as of March 31st 2021. End of the fiscal year. The next time we'll get an update should be in August 2022 or around then with the CESA games white paper, that btw wasn't published this year.

Considering how fast it lost momentum I'm not sure wether it'll surpass Super Paper Mario.

Sure, it's rare, but seeing how close the Switch was in 2019 (just 200k shy or so), the fact that the OLED launch seems to have been bigger than the Lite launch (though this is offset by the fact that the Lite had a week and a half actually on the market of course), and that, based on VGChartz estimates, Switch in 2021 has sold around 40% (very rough estimate) more than 2019 in the same time period...just feels wrong for it to be only 500k units more shipped. Which is why I'm expecting about 1M more than 2019. 

I think we'll get an update for NSMBUDX and hopefully Luigi's Mansion 3.
Also Mario Golf: Super Rush will have passed the original Mario Golf to become the best selling Mario Golf game and Miitopia definitely surpassed the original 3DS version.

I think there's a good chance that SS HD already outsold the original as of September 30th but it's not guaranteed.

Hardware: 5mil+
Software: 50mil ± 5mil

WarioWare launched rather late in the quarter and didn't set the charts on fire, so it's likely that it will have passed the million mark in the holiday quarter.

BotW likely sold over 1mil again after selling 830k and 920k in the last two quarters because of the sequel's trailer at E3 and the eshop discount.
Same goes for Super Mario Party, which sold 970k and 930k the previous two quarters and then got the online update.

So in addition to RFA, MK8, ACNH, SS HD and of course Super Mario 3D World, there should be more million sellers in a non holiday quarter than usual.

My comment aged like milk. Didn't even beat 2019s Q2. Damn.

Well I was pretty wrong with alot of stuff, especially the last paragraph. RFA and ACNH especially surprised me by selling below 1mil.

Animal Crossings legs are worse than expected, it sold the same as SSBU this quarter which is surprising. Hopefully the new DLC can give it a boost in Q3.