You are doing the wrong business model

Gamepass gives games for free. Third parties, retailers, all need money from games sales, so Xbox has to pay them out. Gamepass also discourages game sales

(increased MTX + sub count) - (third party cut - retailer cut - decreased software sales - first party dev budget - hardware budget)

PS makes $8.73B on software sales. They take a 30% cut so total revenue of game sales is approx $29B. We'll assume software ties are similar so Xbox makes $4.35B and total game rev is $14.5B

This is what Gamepass needs to eventually replace if it wants to have third parties put all their games day 1 and tank software sales.

At $120 for Xbox to have everything under GP that's 120M subs. For Playstation, which is twice the size of in many aspects, that's 240M subs.

Disagree. Netflix launched as a total oddity first of its kind trying to take on the big cable monopoly and it had somewhat lacking content compared to cable but it was offering the commodity. Everything was a gamble to Netflix and people where and should have been hesitant.

Xbox gamepass on the other hand launched in the xbox ecosystem and was offering the exact type of content that audience consumes at a lower price, if you dont mind not owning your games. Gamepass never asked or needed xbox gamers to switch ecosystem of drop any existing content they owned. Yet when it launched to its like 30 to 35m userbase they where all hesitant. now its almost 60m and the whole pc and cellphone market and people are still hesitant to jump on something that other streaming services already layed the foundation off. 

And the reason is simple. subs dont work for games like they work for media because of the time investment each title requires. People can watch a full season a day on netflix, or multiple shows and only take a few hours of investment. the same cant be said for gaming. And another factor is that the majority of gamers are not school kids that play games all day, its actually adults. with less time that if you say here are 500 games for $180 a year they would say "why?". People like myself can only play on a good month a single game. If its a multy player game they can be there for a long time. Thats something I just dont believe off all the gamepass fanatics where they say they played hundreds of games they never played before. I would call that a big lie as not even kids who play from after school to sleep time would play that many games. People who have jobs and or family's will choose their time wisely and pick only a few games they know they will enjoy. 

There are more than 1 billion windows computers in the world (2017 data) over 2 billion computers in the world in 2019.
Plus now 15 billion cell phones in 2021 (why do people have multiple cellphones???)

Anyway GP is still very much tied to generational boost. I wonder how it will play out during this gen.

Xbox revenue YoY is up in the double digits. I don’t care much about your sources, I’m sure you’re spinning that, it’s more how horribly organized and ugly the graphs are.

Not to mention how in the world can you tell what the normalized growth of GamePass is when you have no idea how many subscribers there are, what they are paying, and what MS spends to acquire content.

If you took a look at what Netflix was spending early on to get the streaming service off the ground you would have thought they’d be out of business quickly.

Again, which console warrior forum did you find this at? Please tell me you got it off GameFAQS and didn’t make it yourself.

Lol what? It took 6 years for Netflix to reach the same sub numbers Game Pass was at in 4 years and it took year 8 for it to reach similar growth that it took for Game Pass in 4 years, so twice as long. Game Pass is still limited to Xbox consoles, PC, mobile, and tablets, compared to the number of platforms Netflix is available on now. Xcloud launched last week in Japan, Mexico, Australia, and Brazil with high demand in those regions. The number of regions will continue to grow and the amount of platforms will as well. 

Look, I found an graph that's readable. Take note. 

Microsoft is currently trading short term revenue for higher growth and higher long term revenue. They have literal billions earmarked just for Gamepass 3rd party deals according to a recent statement by an insider. And the strategy of focusing on lower short term revenue for increased growth seems to be working, if the recent 30m statement from Strauss Zelnick was accurate, MS has roughly tripled their sub count in less than 2 years. If it is at around 30m now as Zelnick claimed, growth is on pace to hit 40m subs within the next year, maybe even the next 9 months. PS+ had 47.6m subscribers at last official update, while PS Now had 3.2m at last official update. In other words, Gamepass is on pace to become the biggest gaming subscription service in less than 2 years most likely.

Besides, as I told someone else in this thread, you are never going to get an accurate comparison to tv/movie or music streaming services because it is an entirely different market. Just because Gamepass isn't growing as fast as certain other subscription services doesn't mean that it's not growing. It has potentially tripled subscription numbers in less than 2 years, Netflix has never even managed to double subscription numbers in 2 years. Disney+ tripled in 1 year meanwhile, but it's freaking Disney, the biggest movie studio on the planet with a huge catalog of exclusive content. 

I like how he scoffs at me pointing out that Xbox growth is double digits, as if it should be obvious, when he is the one who said Xbox YoY growth is at single digits.

Again bro, please explain how you can possibly calculate normalized growth when you have zero knowledge of the financials.

A bad analysis.

Netflix pioneered streaming content ten years before Gamepass. Streaming models are more common in 2020 and customers are quicker to adopt said services thanks to Netflix.

Disney+ has 100M+ subs in less than two years.

Also please look at revenue, subs each have different pricing options. Spotify has 300M+ subs but many are free tier. Revenue is what makes the business.

This is why I showed YoY growth throughout the years

Notice, subs start with big growth usually 50%+ and then the successful ones still maintain 20-30% growth despite making billions and having 100M+ users.

Xbox is hardly moving the needle and growth is sub 20%

This shows the difference even clearer. Notice the exponential increase in revenue from everything but Xbox.