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Forums - Politics Discussion - german election on sunday

Early indications show in multiple provinces a higher than usual participation. Which usually is a bad sign for the governing party, because activated earlier non-voters aren't often in support of the current government. Especially since they felt the need to vote this time. When in Baden-Württemberg 2011 five million people voted instead of four million, it lead to historic bad results for the CDU and the Greens taking over government.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021

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Mnementh said:

Early indications show in multiple provinces a higher than usual participation. Which usually is a bad sign for the governing party, because activated earlier non-voters aren't often in support of the current government. Especially since they felt the need to vote this time. When in Baden-Württemberg 2011 five million people voted instead of four million, it lead to historic bad results for the CDU and the Greens taking over government.

I actually expected a lower voter turnout.

The turnout already rose by about 5% between 2013 and 2017 which is likely to be attributed to the AfD (for both votes in favour of AfD and against them). There's no new party that could get into Bundestag this time around, whereas in 2017 both the FDP and AfD joined after failing in 2013 by a hair.

Also the candidates don't seem better than last time. Laschet clearly can't mobilize as many voters as Merkel, while Scholz (just as Laschet) is regarded as the guy wanting to continue the great coalition's politics.



Barozi said:
Mnementh said:

Early indications show in multiple provinces a higher than usual participation. Which usually is a bad sign for the governing party, because activated earlier non-voters aren't often in support of the current government. Especially since they felt the need to vote this time. When in Baden-Württemberg 2011 five million people voted instead of four million, it lead to historic bad results for the CDU and the Greens taking over government.

I actually expected a lower voter turnout.

The turnout already rose by about 5% between 2013 and 2017 which is likely to be attributed to the AfD (for both votes in favour of AfD and against them). There's no new party that could get into Bundestag this time around, whereas in 2017 both the FDP and AfD joined after failing in 2013 by a hair.

Also the candidates don't seem better than last time. Laschet clearly can't mobilize as many voters as Merkel, while Scholz (just as Laschet) is regarded as the guy wanting to continue the great coalition's politics.

Well:

https://www.rnd.de/politik/bundestagswahl-2021-in-deutschland-zeichnet-sich-eine-hohe-wahlbeteiligung-ab-ALU54HOJYNHOBE47IVF7Z5EXUA.html

It's not the same everywhere, but some provinces have a higher turnout. But reading into it a bit deeper, that might also because of a higher amount of mail-in votes. So maybe that statement from me was a bit early. We'll see.

On the other hand, for the first time since I vote I was waiting in a line. But maybe that's just me. Or they reorganized stuff and have fewer voting places.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021

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Wow the election forecast is crazy all around.

CDU/CSU a bit better than expected. Everyone else pretty much exactly as the surveys told us.
The Left might not even make it into the Bundestag with 5%.
Everything else is so close that some coalitions aren't possible any more depending on which forecast you look (like red-green-red).


On a federal state level: Huge wins for the Greens in Berlin. Infact they're the biggest party now, so the future mayor might be from the Green party. AfD with huge losses.



As a closer look what Barozi is talking about, here are the current forecasts for the outcome of the election:

Uhrzeit Institut CDU/CSU SPD AfD FDP LIN GRÜ FW SSW Son CDU/CSU SPD AfD FDP LIN GRÜ SSW Gesamt
  32,9 % 20,5 % 12,6 % 10,7 % 9,2 % 8,9 % 1,0 % 4,0 % 246 153 94 80 69 67 709
18:00 Infratest 25,0 % 25,0 % 11,0 % 11,0 % 5,0 % 15,0 % 8,0 % 200 197 87 87 39 119 1 730
18:00 Fgr. Wahlen 24,0 % 26,0 % 10,0 % 12,0 % 5,0 % 14,5 % 8,5 % 198 215 83 99 41 120 721
18:00 Fgr. Wahlen 200 217 83 100 121 721
18:43 Infratest 24,7 % 24,9 % 11,3 % 11,2 % 5,0 % 14,8 % 8,1 % 198 197 89 88 40 117 1 730
18:45 Fgr. Wahlen 24,2 % 25,8 % 10,1 % 11,8 % 5,0 % 14,7 % 8,4 % 200 213 83 98 41 121 756
19:00 Fgr. Wahlen 24,4 % 25,6 % 10,3 % 11,6 % 5,0 % 14,7 % 8,4 % 202 211 85 96 41 121 756
19:14 Infratest 24,7 % 24,9 % 11,1 % 11,7 % 5,0 % 14,6 % 8,0 % 198 197 88 92 39 115 1 730
19:31 Fgr. Wahlen 24,6 % 25,7 % 10,7 % 11,7 % 5,0 % 14,4 % 7,9 % 198 206 86 94 40 116 740

https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2021/bundestagswahl-2021.html#prognosen-hochrechnungen

As an explanation, the percentages are the vote shares, the second part are the projected seats in the parliament. The topmost row is the last election. Ah yes, and SSW is a party representing a minority, which is why they may be excluded from the 5% barrier and can have a seat once they arrive at enough votes for one.

CDU/CSU was expected to be around 20%, so they are actually stronger than expected. Which also means that the current government coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD might be able to continue to govern, but with that result with the SPD as the leading party. That is, if they want to do that.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021

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Kinda disappointed that we won't see SPD, Grüne and Linke in the government. Either FDP or CDU/CSU will make it in some form, in the worst case both of them. So for the moment I hope that Die Grünen won't form a coalition with those two parties.

As for me, I voted the party Die PARTEI, as always.



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OdinHades said:

Kinda disappointed that we won't see SPD, Grüne and Linke in the government. Either FDP or CDU/CSU will make it in some form, in the worst case both of them. So for the moment I hope that Die Grünen won't form a coalition with those two parties.

As for me, I voted the party Die PARTEI, as always.

CDU/CSU ended up stronger than polls indicated. Which is disappointing. We cannot go into the future with parties stuck in the last century.



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Germans reinforced the notion that they are stupid. Now they'll get another Groko.



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RolStoppable said:

Germans reinforced the notion that they are stupid. Now they'll get another Groko.

Not sure the CDU want that, if they don't get to be chancellor.



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