SvennoJ said:
I don't agree with a lot of what PP says but at least he seems to want an independent Canada. However more ties with Europe are a good thing with a neighbor like Trump. I don't believe Trump will ever invade Canada, but will be more disruptive to trade.
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Here's my take on what Trumps plan has been:
Trump wants to isolate the USA as much as reasonably possible from any nation that's a threat, in any way. This of course includes China, because of it's growing economy and world influence. Trump, and the rest of America, including Dems, don't want China getting too big and powerful. It's why Biden left most of the tariffs alone or raised them or added more, and why Trumps just taking that even further now again.
For this plan to work, the USA cannot go it alone. Not only that, but they'd like this more isolationist plan to be as local and efficient as possible. This would mean the USA and Canada having an even closer relationship than ever before. (Would also include Mexico and maybe Greenland, as well as the EU to some degree). That wasn't going to happen under Trudeau, and it's not going to happen under Carney either, he's made that clear. This is why Trump wants PP and the Cons in power. A big part of this plan is energy, and the USA would desperately need our oil sands, at least in the long run, but it would not just be to their benefit, but to ours as well. Pipelines from coast to coast means energy security and shipping worldwide.
The reason for the trade war Trumps started with us, was to hopefully lure the Libs into 'taking the bait', and instead of focusing on Canada's needs, (like Trump did during the USA election while Kamala focused on him), they'd instead focus on Trump and make their campaign revolve around him. The reason why this would work, is because after a while, Trump could pull the rug out from under Carney by backing off on the tariffs, being silent. What were the Libs going to do, if Trump seemingly backed off and faded away? Canadian elections are short, so there would be little time for Carney to pivot and try to make his campaign about Canada's needs, especially when that's been PP's main focus this whole time and wasn't ever going to change.
Now yes, this did bring Pierre's polls way down, but personally I think they were also wrong then, showing much too favorably for PP. I don't think his lead was quite that big. Those high polling numbers for PP made it easier for Trudeau to step down. So this plan was supposed to leave PP with enough of a lead to still win a minority, worst case, but to make sure Carney couldn't pull off a win. The question is are the polls now right or wrong with PP slightly behind, because that will prove whether the plan was successful or not. There's no guarantee PP would've gotten a majority anyway, if Carney and the Libs had focused solely on Canada's needs from the get go.
Now as for what it would mean if PP and the Cons win? PP isn't going to bend over and take it from Trump, because that's not what Trump actually wants. The 51st state, Governor stuff is mainly Trump going after Trudeau. Attempting to force the election sooner than later. Trump knows American Manifest Destiny isn't going to happen. Trump see's the potential Canada has, and wants us to take full advantage of that, benefitting both of our nations. PP and Trump will negotiate and make deals, while both being on the same page, wanting to work together as closely as possible so Canada feeds off America and America feeds off Canada (eventually including Mexico, maybe Greenland, and to a lesser extent, the EU). Now by doing this, Canada will to a degree, be operating somewhat like a USA State economically, while still remaining our own Country politically. Both of our nations will get to increase the size of the pie and directly benefit from it while remaining mostly separate of each others politics.
Just to be crystal clear. Trump and the USA don't want to totally ditch China or the EU, etc. They just want to become even more independent. They want to have enough control over what's needed at home, by mining it and making it at home, if possible, while getting the rest elsewhere, so it's not too expensive. This will take years to get sorted, and a decade to really be seeing clear benefits, but from there it will be mostly downhill.
Maybe I'm partially wrong, maybe I'm totally wrong, who knows, but that's how I see it.
I personally don't see this project and it's completion date, later this year, to be a mistake, or that of coincidence.



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