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SanAndreasX on 18 April 2025
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SvennoJ said:
EricHiggin said:

Here's something to chew on as to our Federal polls and a comparison between Canada vs the USA as to recent elections:

-Trumps rallies start early to try and make him more popular with Americans.

-Pierre's rallies start early to try and make him popular with Canadians.

-Early to mid election (USA is long) polls show Trump is even more popular and is going to be a considerable contender vs Biden.

-Prior to the election (CAN is short) polls show Pierre is extremely popular and is going to be a considerable contender vs Trudeau.

-Dems and the USA MSM realize this and turn on Biden.

-Libs and the CAN MSM realize this and turn on Trudeau.

-Biden steps down and is replaced with Kamala.

-Trudeau steps down and is replaced with Carney.

-The polls change drastically in short time and show Trump and Kamala are neck and neck right up until the election.

-The polls change drastically in short time and show Pierre and Carney are neck and neck right up until the election.

-Trump somehow, someway, easily wins, proving the polls to be very inaccurate.

-CAN outcome TBD.

Now there's a few key differences to point out. Like how the Dems installed Kamala last minute, and the USA polls showing a tie.

Here's my take on that:

-The CAN Libs learned from the Dems mistake and made sure to get Trudeau out early so they could hold an 'unquestionable' vote to replace him with someone 'worthy' of voting for. Gotta make sure there is no question to the democracy.

-The CAN pollsters learned that neck and neck wasn't enough to sway independents, and not enough to get Dem voters out to the ballot box, which is why Carney has led the polls by 'just enough'. Gotta give the Libs enough hope, while also taking the wind out of the sails of the Cons massive lead, completely erased.

If I'm right, the polls are way off and Pierre is going to win an easy minority if not majority. If I'm wrong, I'm just a conspiracy theorist. We'll see.

I'm kinda thinking the same thing, I do not trust the polls. The provincial elections in Ontario less than 2 months ago has the conservatives dominating.

Ford might have called early elections to get re-elected before the 'Trump effect' hurt the conservatives.
Feb 28th: 42.97% PCP (+2.17% 2022), 18.55% NDP (-5.15%), 29.95% Lib (+6.15%), Green 4.83% (-1.17%), Turnout 45% (+2%)
Libs might have a bit more growth than PCP but it's all coming from NDP and Green losing votes.

And with the first past the post system it translates into PCP 80 seats (64.5%), NDP 27 seats (21.8%), Lib 14 seats (11.3%)
PCP gains 21.5% vs the popular vote, NDP +3,25%, Lib -18.7%.
The provincial government is not representative of the vote.

Polls measuring popular vote are useless even if accurate. That's why I don't trust them since the popular vote was pretty accurate for February 28th.
CPC 42%, LPC 28% polled on March 9th.

338 goes into more detail
https://338canada.com/ontario.htm

However with all the Liberal positive outlook (80 LPC vs 38 CPC), my riding 35032 has CPC likely (as well as Brantford that was in my old riding)
So my vote really won't seem to matter at all. I'll vote of course, but will be as effective as shouting in the wind.



I don't agree with a lot of what PP says but at least he seems to want an independent Canada. However more ties with Europe are a good thing with a neighbor like Trump. I don't believe Trump will ever invade Canada, but will be more disruptive to trade.

Carney should at least know a lot about the economy. He previously served as the eighth governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the 120th governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. In 2020, he began serving as the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance — helping rally the world to build stronger economies as we fight climate change.

We have Carney with an incredible track record vs Pollievre with a lot of promises for free market and less government. I'm putting my trust in actual real life experience, steering the economy through the 2008 financial crisis in Canada and Brexit in the UK. Carney's ties with the UN, Europe, climate action are all important to me in where we are in the world right now.


Anyway 10 more days to find out.

I'm really pulling for Carney this time. Pierre Poilievre will be a Trump puppet, plus he's backed by an organization of Elon Musk wannabes that seem to be the same sort of techbro edgelords that make up DOGE.