Over 600 million dollars spend for that....

The best part is this all led to just finding out that the PPC, who was basically ignored, is way more popular than most would've imagined.

The Cons would've been neck and neck with the Libs if those PPC votes had gone to the Cons as they likely would've in the past.

But ya, 600 milski's down the drain, to keep the Country floating down the drain. O Canada...

In 18 months, or later, regardless, the next election is going to actually be interesting.

Maybe we Canadians also need local votes separated from PM votes, or perhaps a popular vote winner instead? lol

Lots of heat getting thrown at the Alberta Con Premier now, for covid reasons, apparently. Though this has been a focus of the media just prior to the election coincidentally, yet was disregarded for the most part by everyone else. Odds are pretty good it's just the Cons playing the blame game due to the loss and the Libs and media taking advantage of it. Alberta damn near went solid blue (Con) in the election so it's pretty unlikely the people there are too worried about the Premiers actions. An easy target that will likely have it bounce off him like DJT so no harm done overall.

Also got the Ontario Con Premier now changing his tone again about vax pass. Just a minor temporary thing and not a full out rollout everywhere like some were suggesting. Which isn't surprising because Con voters are mostly against vax pass here and they are who got him elected, so since next to nothing changed in Ontario as well, he might as well stay his past course for the June 22 election. Unless of course he wants to run for PM in 23 or later, because he would have a much better chance than the last two Cons did. His best bet would be to pass on the next Ontario Provincial election, become CPC Federal party leader, then run for PM in 23.

Yeah there wasn't much point in holding this election and the population clearly opposed doing so in the first place. That I think is the bottom-line message here when you look at how low the turnout was and also how similar the outcome was to that of 2019. To that end, one has to really dig for anything of interest here. Nevertheless, if you look hard enough, you can manage to find some interesting little details. I'll highlight some of them below:

1) Prime Minister Trudeau was more popular before he called an election. Here's how the Liberals were doing before Prime Minister Trudeau called this election. As you can see here, the Liberals were averaging support in the upper 30s, benefiting from an effective vaccination campaign, among other things. But once the Liberal leader opted to politicize the matter, support dropped by several percentage points and never recovered. The people have wanted the Covid crisis to be a moment of unity wherein parties rise above politics and put their countries first.

2) All Conservative pick-ups were in the east, while all their losses were in the western provinces (namely British Columbia and Alberta). See what I mean? This logically resembles a something of a long-term trend that's been happening here in the U.S. over the course of decades wherein Democratic Party strength is increasing slowly but primarily in the western part of the country.

3) The People's Party vote didn't collapse like it did two years ago. The 5% vote share they got was lower than where they were polling, but that's typical of minor party support. The major parties are the Liberals, the Conservatives, and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois. People want their votes to count and to that end more on-the-fence voters who indicate preference for minor parties often wind up actually voting for one of those three in the end. The result is that the major parties typically fare a little better once the votes are actually counted than they did in the polling, while minor parties typically fare a little worse in the actual vote than the had in the polling. But in 2019, People's Party support just straight-up collapsed when it came time to vote. Their final polling average had been 6.5%, but they actually wound up with just 1.6% of the vote, as their supporters reverted to their previous home in the Conservative Party. No such thing happened this time around: their polling average was similar here in 2021, but actual voter support fell only to a flat 5% in the end this time, indicating more disillusionment with the Conservatives on the right. This share of the vote may indeed have been the difference between the ability of the Conservatives to form a government and not, possibly. Nonetheless, PPC support was so thinly spread that the party once again failed to win any seats, so their campaign was just simply a drag on the conservative movement in practice. It may signal a need of the Tories to shift a bit rightward going forward in order to win back some of these voters, but not so far to the right as to alienate their more moderate branch in the process.

4) Speaking of minor parties, Green Party support collapsed. In the 2019 election, Elizabeth May's Green Party had gotten a party record 6.55% of the vote and tripled their parliamentary representation from 1 to 3 seats amidst the ascendancy of the global Sunrise movement that benefited environmentalist parties the world over. The Sunrise movement has stalled though after the coronavirus outbreak and the new, social justice-oriented leadership of Annamie "my jaw dropped" Paul has added internal strife within the Canadian Greens to this mix. The result was a net loss of one seat in the federal parliament and their lowest vote share in 21 years: just 2.3%. Notably, Jenica Atwin, who was elected for the Greens in 2019 and defected to the Liberals earlier this year over the former's new position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was re-elected for her new party, and former Green Party leader Elizabeth May won election to a fourth term in her riding as well. By contrast, current Green leader Annamie Paul failed in her third attempt to reach parliament, this time falling from second place in a by-election for the same riding last year to a distant fourth for the same seat. Of all parties, the Greens lost the most in terms of vote share, even falling by about half compared to 2019 in the hypothetical student vote. It goes to show that Paul is no Elizabeth May and to which end it is time for new leadership.

5) The New Democrats can't unseat Liberals. As you can see at the link in point 2 above, the NDP picked up seats only where the incumbent was a Conservative and there was no serious competition from the Liberals. By contrast, Liberal candidates managed to unseat two NDP incumbents. This reveals an underlying weakness in the NDP; that they're dependent on extraordinary circumstances for advancement. In fact, their tie-breaking pick-up was a seat held by Green Party, showing really Canadian the left parasitizing itself. The NDP's marginally increased vote share, in fact, in this sense is directly attributable to a parallel, but steeper, drop in support for the Greens.

6) The Bloc Quebecois had the only clean pick-up. The Bloc held onto every seat they'd won in 2019 and added one more, bringing them just one seat below the Liberals in Quebec; the only place they contest for obvious ideological reasons. All other parties with representation in the parliament won some new seats and also lost some. The BQ's support is the most stable, perhaps owing to their clearer message and cause.

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Because this time, it wasn't just obvious to those paying attention last time that we needed change (2021), it was finally obvious to everyone that we desperately needed one now (2025). Plus it was coming later this year regardless, and thank god it's happening asap.

Trudeau ran on election reform, but didn't do squat. Carney definitely won't, he loves the system as it is, and while Pierre looks to be willing to shake things up a bit, I wouldn't bet on him doing anything about it either. Most likely way that ever happens is another Trucker Convoy movement, targeted at election reform, or the majority refusing to vote until the system is changed/upgraded. Good luck getting either to happen.

I've been skeptical of the massive poll shift ever since Carney took over. Way too similar to what happened in the US not that long ago. Now Trumps tariffs are an outlier and explains some of the shift, that can't be ignored, but if there's enough Canadians truly clueless enough, not to realize that the biggest reason the tariffs are a problem is because of how weak we are, due to the last decade of the Libs in Federal power, then we're going to be in serious trouble going forward, far more then we already are, which is bad enough.

A strong, independent enough Canada, would laugh off Trumps tariffs and simply retaliate in a politically correct manner, not throw a fit and use terms like "elbows up". Trump may have said some 'mean' things like, we should be the "51st state", but again, if enough Canadians are truly that clueless, that they think Trumps going to take Canada by military or even just economic force, then they're out of their minds. Mind you, heading in the direction we have been, we've been making that possibility more and more likely as we continue down this path, so instead of continuing, how about maybe making a change and heading in a direction that makes us stronger and more independent? Pierre wants that, where as Carney seems less worried about being independent, and more interested in making deals with the EU and China. We need to stop being so reliant on others, that couldn't be more obvious.

I should also point out, I'm not so sure that those who think Pierre has the election in the bag, simply due to his huge rallies, are taking everything into consideration. That same mindset was applied to the 2020 election in the USA, and Biden still won, with a massive popular vote victory. I still think the polls are quite a bit off, and would guess it's at the very least, the opposite of what they've been showing, which would mean Pierre has a bit of a lead.

Here's something to chew on as to our Federal polls and a comparison between Canada vs the USA as to recent elections:

-Trumps rallies start early to try and make him more popular with Americans.

-Pierre's rallies start early to try and make him popular with Canadians.

-Early to mid election (USA is long) polls show Trump is even more popular and is going to be a considerable contender vs Biden.

-Prior to the election (CAN is short) polls show Pierre is extremely popular and is going to be a considerable contender vs Trudeau.

-Dems and the USA MSM realize this and turn on Biden.

-Libs and the CAN MSM realize this and turn on Trudeau.

-Biden steps down and is replaced with Kamala.

-Trudeau steps down and is replaced with Carney.

-The polls change drastically in short time and show Trump and Kamala are neck and neck right up until the election.

-The polls change drastically in short time and show Pierre and Carney are neck and neck right up until the election.

-Trump somehow, someway, easily wins, proving the polls to be very inaccurate.

-CAN outcome TBD.

Now there's a few key differences to point out. Like how the Dems installed Kamala last minute, and the USA polls showing a tie.

Here's my take on that:

-The CAN Libs learned from the Dems mistake and made sure to get Trudeau out early so they could hold an 'unquestionable' vote to replace him with someone 'worthy' of voting for. Gotta make sure there is no question to the democracy.

-The CAN pollsters learned that neck and neck wasn't enough to sway independents, and not enough to get Dem voters out to the ballot box, which is why Carney has led the polls by 'just enough'. Gotta give the Libs enough hope, while also taking the wind out of the sails of the Cons massive lead, completely erased.

If I'm right, the polls are way off and Pierre is going to win an easy minority if not majority. If I'm wrong, I'm just a conspiracy theorist. We'll see.

I'm kinda thinking the same thing, I do not trust the polls. The provincial elections in Ontario less than 2 months ago has the conservatives dominating.

Ford might have called early elections to get re-elected before the 'Trump effect' hurt the conservatives.
Feb 28th: 42.97% PCP (+2.17% 2022), 18.55% NDP (-5.15%), 29.95% Lib (+6.15%), Green 4.83% (-1.17%), Turnout 45% (+2%)
Libs might have a bit more growth than PCP but it's all coming from NDP and Green losing votes.

And with the first past the post system it translates into PCP 80 seats (64.5%), NDP 27 seats (21.8%), Lib 14 seats (11.3%)
PCP gains 21.5% vs the popular vote, NDP +3,25%, Lib -18.7%.
The provincial government is not representative of the vote.

Polls measuring popular vote are useless even if accurate. That's why I don't trust them since the popular vote was pretty accurate for February 28th.
CPC 42%, LPC 28% polled on March 9th.

338 goes into more detail
https://338canada.com/ontario.htm

However with all the Liberal positive outlook (80 LPC vs 38 CPC), my riding 35032 has CPC likely (as well as Brantford that was in my old riding)
So my vote really won't seem to matter at all. I'll vote of course, but will be as effective as shouting in the wind.



I don't agree with a lot of what PP says but at least he seems to want an independent Canada. However more ties with Europe are a good thing with a neighbor like Trump. I don't believe Trump will ever invade Canada, but will be more disruptive to trade.

Carney should at least know a lot about the economy. He previously served as the eighth governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the 120th governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. In 2020, he began serving as the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance — helping rally the world to build stronger economies as we fight climate change.

We have Carney with an incredible track record vs Pollievre with a lot of promises for free market and less government. I'm putting my trust in actual real life experience, steering the economy through the 2008 financial crisis in Canada and Brexit in the UK. Carney's ties with the UN, Europe, climate action are all important to me in where we are in the world right now.


Anyway 10 more days to find out.