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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Report: Nintendo Denies OLED Profit and Any More Iterations

 

What do you think?

OLED overpriced and Switch Pro incoming 5 10.87%
 
OLED overpriced, no Switch Pro coming 14 30.43%
 
OLED fairly priced, Switch Pro incoming 6 13.04%
 
OLED fairly priced, no Switch Pro coming 12 26.09%
 
Can everyone shut up 7 15.22%
 
About Switch Pro 0 0%
 
And please look 0 0%
 
forward to 0 0%
 
Switch 2!!!!! 2 4.35%
 
Total:46
Dulfite said:

Regardless of what you think is dumb, they have historically done roughly 6 year windows (sometimes less like Wii U -- Switch, sometimes more). They obviously think its smart. You have to plan out generational leaps years in advance, it can't be a reactive thing, otherwise they will have a bunch of their teams making new engines/games exclusive for Switch 2 and suddenly tell those teams to wait a year or two to release it from when they normally would. Switch had to come early because of Wii U's failures, which is why it was so dependant on Wii U ports early on. Nintendo will want the return on those games as soon as possible and there is no way, 4+ years into Switch's life, that Nintendo isn't working games for their future device. When they started Switch's life they probably mapped out all the games they wanted to make from their teams for this device before moving on to the next device's games.

And Nintendo doesn't want a year where they only sell 10-15m units. That stretches out the lifetime sales of Switch, which seems great to us that care about lifetime numbers, but they are much more concerned with profits each year (not generational profits). If they think they will sell a lot more units by having Switch 2 out then they will absolutely do that. Why sell 10-15 mil Switch 1's in 2023 when they could sell 15-20 mil Switch 2's + 5 mil Switchs (discounted) in 2023?

People always fixate on generational numbers on this website, but that's not how businesses work. Nintendo does't care about last year's financial report, shareholders don't either. It's all about the present year's financial outlook.

Furukawa has repeatedly stated that the historical 5-6 year cycle isn't smart, that's why Nintendo is looking to give Switch a longer lifecycle than previous consoles, because when the market allows it, why shouldn't Nintendo follow that. So far their actions have backed up these words, be it pricing of the console itself or game announcements which in the past used to wind down from year 5 onwards, but that isn't the case this time around.

Whenever the situation allows it (meaning good hardware momentum), Nintendo times releases to maximize profitability. So your idea that games are supposed to release as soon as they are completed fails to take into account that Nintendo isn't selling only software. Likewise, it's easy to reschedule work on games that are currently in development, so in case there would already be games in development for a Switch successor, their production timeline would get stretched out or put on hold due to higher priority for Switch games in the nearer future.

The reason why selling only 10-15m Switch units in a year would still be fine is because the userbase would still be very active and buy a ton of games. There's much more profit to be made from software than from hardware, hence why rushing out a successor doesn't make sense. Aside from that, Switch's sales momentum is too good to fall to only 10-15m in 2023.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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Price drop $300 OLED confirmed



Still, hoping for switch's successor in 2023 when you have a pretty strong lineup with major titles in 2022 remains quiete unreasonable to me honestly.
In addition, we have to remind every time that Furukawa said that switch just entered its second half of existance, and they are willing to make switch have longer lifecycle than usual. This will give switch an average of 8 years lifetime. March 2025 will be appropriate because cutting switch's legs right now is the dubest thing that Nintendo can do.



I always thought that rumor sounded fishy. I'm no expert or anything, but I figure better screen, better speakers, and more hard drive space costs a little more than 10 bucks.



I'm fine with this. If they have to release any different model, I want it to be a successor console. And I want the Switch to last as much as possible.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

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heavenmercenary01 said:

Still, hoping for switch's successor in 2023 when you have a pretty strong lineup with major titles in 2022 remains quiete unreasonable to me honestly.
In addition, we have to remind every time that Furukawa said that switch just entered its second half of existance, and they are willing to make switch have longer lifecycle than usual. This will give switch an average of 8 years lifetime. March 2025 will be appropriate because cutting switch's legs right now is the dubest thing that Nintendo can do.

He said that a year ago, actually slightly more than a year ago. I believe it was June 2020. That was 3 years and 2 months after Switch release, so of course that is entering its second half. Now, over a year later, we are in its last two thirds.

Why would we want to keep using Switch hardware, which is just slightly better than Wii U, which was 360/ps3 level until 2025? Why tolerate that? I love the Switch, and I loved the Wii U, but why should we just be content with a device lasting until 2025? That's a crazy long time to wait for an upgrade. 8 years on a 360/ps3 (slightly better) device is ridiculous.



Darwinianevolution said:

I'm fine with this. If they have to release any different model, I want it to be a successor console. And I want the Switch to last as much as possible.

Yep. Solution is keep Switch 1 going after Switch 2 comes out. Have games continue to be made for Switch 1, but also come out on Switch 2. Have games be made exclusively for Switch 2. 1 sales will go down over time but still sell a lot, 2 will grow over time. Still one unified development team and they can maximize profits.



RolStoppable said:

Furukawa has repeatedly stated that the historical 5-6 year cycle isn't smart, that's why Nintendo is looking to give Switch a longer lifecycle than previous consoles, because when the market allows it, why shouldn't Nintendo follow that. So far their actions have backed up these words, be it pricing of the console itself or game announcements which in the past used to wind down from year 5 onwards, but that isn't the case this time around.

Whenever the situation allows it (meaning good hardware momentum), Nintendo times releases to maximize profitability. So your idea that games are supposed to release as soon as they are completed fails to take into account that Nintendo isn't selling only software. Likewise, it's easy to reschedule work on games that are currently in development, so in case there would already be games in development for a Switch successor, their production timeline would get stretched out or put on hold due to higher priority for Switch games in the nearer future.

The reason why selling only 10-15m Switch units in a year would still be fine is because the userbase would still be very active and buy a ton of games. There's much more profit to be made from software than from hardware, hence why rushing out a successor doesn't make sense. Aside from that, Switch's sales momentum is too good to fall to only 10-15m in 2023.

@bolded:  People really need to take note of this.  Super Mario Bros 3 released five years after the NES launched and went on to become the console's biggest selling stand-alone game of all time - by far.  Unlike with the Wii, Nintendo seems to be doing right by the Switch and its potential to keep selling tons of software by not rushing out a successor.  Still plenty of games to be made for the Switch; especially when the console will still be shipping close to 20m units in 2023 with all of the options Nintendo still has left to make sure that happens.



Dulfite said:
heavenmercenary01 said:

Still, hoping for switch's successor in 2023 when you have a pretty strong lineup with major titles in 2022 remains quiete unreasonable to me honestly.
In addition, we have to remind every time that Furukawa said that switch just entered its second half of existance, and they are willing to make switch have longer lifecycle than usual. This will give switch an average of 8 years lifetime. March 2025 will be appropriate because cutting switch's legs right now is the dubest thing that Nintendo can do.

He said that a year ago, actually slightly more than a year ago. I believe it was June 2020. That was 3 years and 2 months after Switch release, so of course that is entering its second half. Now, over a year later, we are in its last two thirds.

Why would we want to keep using Switch hardware, which is just slightly better than Wii U, which was 360/ps3 level until 2025? Why tolerate that? I love the Switch, and I loved the Wii U, but why should we just be content with a device lasting until 2025? That's a crazy long time to wait for an upgrade. 8 years on a 360/ps3 (slightly better) device is ridiculous.

Pretty sure Furukawa said it entered the middle of it's life last year, not directly the second half. Longer than usual is 7+ years. He wouldn't say anything like that if he meant 6 years, because that is not longer at all. Splatoon 3 in 2022 to me is still a big indicator of the Switch successor not launching in 2023.



RolStoppable said:

Switch 2 in 2023 would be one of the dumbest things Nintendo could do. The ideal timing for a Switch successor is a launch during the fiscal year where the current Switch platform can be expected to fall below 10m units in shipments and that's not anytime soon.

That's a bit sad on one hand, man. No Nintendo console that is at least comparable to a PS4 until 2024-2025? Well, damn. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.