you are from the small number of people here I can say I like and respect

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022

What ? Don't put words in my mouth please. First of all the topic is my prediction that the switch will make not more than 140M and will begin to drop starting next year and my prediction is also that it will do something around 15M for next year. Anything other than this is just conversation or replies to other people's comments.

The topic is not about what % is being used as a handheld. And also I have never said that switch is no different than PS4 sales.

I just gave an example with PS4 how it dropped in it's last 2 years and that switch will have similar drops. Not just because of PS4, the same were also happening to DS and to Wii. But those were just examples. Also the drop will begin with 2022, it won't be after that.

If switch sells below 140M I will be right and all of you wrong. Cuz when I made my prediction of 140M and that it will start to go down from next year then all of you attacked me. It has nothing to do with the percentage of handheld. Don't shift the goalpost. If that was the point of everyone here then they wouldn't say anything to my original post which was that switch will start going down from 2022. Don't shift the topic in a way you wanted or understand to be. That is your problem.

Yes however drops in sales on consoles become bigger in the last 10 years than they were in 2010 or 2011.

So the drop that Wii had back then or DS in 2011 now will result in something around 15M units sold for the switch next year.

Just like PS4 drop is bigger than PS3. Or the XB1 drop is bigger than 360. Or just like 360 and PS3 dropes were bigger than previous consoles like PS2 or even PS1. Deaths on consoles are more brutal and fast now then they were before 10 or 15 years ago. With the times more and more people learn to jump from one tech to another. Those are the times we are living in.

As I said the thing that can prevent this from happening is 100$ price cut next year for switch or releasing Pro model. This will help steeping the decline.

Yes however drops in sales on consoles become bigger in the last 10 years than they were in 2010 or 2011.

So the drop that Wii had back then or DS in 2011 now will result in something around 15M units sold for the switch next year.

Just like PS4 drop is bigger than PS3. Or the XB1 drop is bigger than 360. Or just like 360 and PS3 dropes were bigger than previous consoles like PS2 or even PS1. Deaths on consoles are more brutal and fast now then they were before 10 or 15 years ago. With the times more and more people learn to jump from one tech to another. Those are the times we are living in.

As I said the thing that can prevent this from happening is 100$ price cut next year for switch or releasing Pro model. This will help steeping the decline.

For the tie ratio, okay, then the switch players are just playing more on it outside. It is not needed to be always in home to buy new games for your console.

Also I don't need to be active for 15 years here to have good knowledge on different type of things or sales. And my track record on this site is more than just making PS4 predictions in the past. I've been reading many articles charts comparisons and topics since 2011 here, and also have sometimes commented on things related to XBOX as well. Also recently I began different comparison like yours for year on year, console vs console. And I will continue doing it and making it better and more interesting for the future, maybe adding new comparisons or consoles, different combinations.

But really I don't know why everyone has to have some track record that you like here for him to have the right to express his opinion or prediction/thoughts about some consoles, or it's sales projection or whatever it is. Everyone can make his own prediction or thoughts and no one is required to give his reasons. 

My statement for the % of home and handheld use of switch is totally different thing than my prediction, and it does not have to be connected. I am giving my prediction and that's it. If it happen I will be right and all of you wrong. No and or buts. If it doesn't happen I will come out and say that I've been wrong.

I am not requiring anyone to take my prediction heavily. Do as you like. Everyone has brain and it have to have the ability to think. This is just saying my opinion and giving my prediction like everyone else. Mine is different big deal. Others are different too, just are higher numbers than what I am giving.

The reason PS4 didn't reach what I was going to sell was because of Sony not emerging markets or anything like that. And even then I've told in the past also that if they don't do price cut and stop all the support then PS4 won't reach 140M, even 130M, I was giving 120M as the bare minimum, and it looks like I've been only 2-3M off. The things happened in the way they happened because Sony just didn't care and didn't do anything about, not even giving full stock for the system.

Also almost no one would've give PS4 lifetime sales projection of only 118M like it's what will finish like. So everyone have been wrong about the PS4. Because even the worst predictions here were for around 120-125M. So from your logic no one here have to receive the benefit of the doubt and everyone here things wrong because no one could've predicted the fast death and the big drops of PS4. No one. Not even the haters or the worse prediction were giving PS4 8M in 2020 and 2M for this year. So you can see by that that my prediction was normal and okay based on the situation at the moment. There were many more peoples like me back then that were prediction 130-140M and even decent number of people also giving the possibility of PS4 passing 140M. So here you are not only telling how wrong have I been but also everyone who made predictions about the PS4 as well and making it like because of wrong prediction that no one could've predicted right, those people are not valuable or relevant to have the right of making new predictions and be taken serious or what ?

So my reasons and predictions were fully true and valid if Sony were to give the PS4 full stock at all times like it have to be along with 100$ like it was done for the consoles before last 2 generations. However they didn't.

So no, I have not been wrong before, I clearly said that if they don't do the normal things that every manufacturer should and most of them have done in the past PS4 wouldn't go much after 120M. I was just doubting they will abandon the system like they really did.

For smartphones I am not saying that it is connected directly, but I am just giving an example, because of tech like smartphones and not only smartphones, people in general have learned in the last 10 years to change and to upgrade much faster than they've done before.

I am the one who will lean back and wait for 2022, and to see what most of switch defenders will tell then, and what reason will they make up for the dropping under 20M for the year. The only thing that can stop that from happening is price cut.

no I don't agree, however this is whole different topic that I have no interest in continue arguing about. Cuz for this we don't have official information.

If Nintendo comes out and say official statistics then I will be interested. And for that if I am wrong okay. But I doubt it. It may not be exactly 90-10, I was speaking roughtly, it may be 80-20 or 85-15, however something like this. If it is 50-50 then again, I have no problem to say I have been wrong.

Yes, well.. not insane numbers coming from every console, only from one at a time.

Switch making 15M next year is very good number, just not insane.

PS4 and switch in 2017-2018, PS4 was making the best out of it's years, and switch was doing just mediocre numbers compared to now.

DS WII were the consoles that were making the insane numbers, PS3 360 and PSP at that time were making just Okay numbers, not insane, and 360 and PS3 not their strongest. They did their strongest numbers when DS and Wii began to drop. PSP was making mediocre numbers all life.

GBA wasn't doing insane numbers, just okay ones. NES SNES also weren't doing insane. Gameboy was doing OKAY.

This is what I am trying to see. Not that the systems sell bad with other one selling great, just not showing their full potential at the same time.

There is no point in time where the one system was doing insane at it's peak, and the other ones too.

Wii and DS only, and that's because one is purely handheld other one is purely home console. And even the Wii was selling not more like traditional home console for home hardcore gaming but more of a casual system to play mom and dads and grandpa with children.

Your example with the cars and motorbikes is not relevant here because there are hundreds of models and manufacturers of cars and motorbikes, and only 3 manufacturers of consoles releasing 1 console per 6-7 years.

No, I mean just okay in comparison to 30M for a year that switch is making or the 30M or 25M that DS and WII did. I am talking for insane numbers like those.

And also yes, 80M lifetime it is good, okay sales. Nothing more. But I was talking primary for sales per year in comparison with what other consoles are making.

And PSP haven't done 20M a year. And leave the numbers alone, there were not point in time where all the consoles selling very good and doing similar number.

For any of the examples always the one console is way way up than the others. That is what I am trying to tell. There have not been a case yet where all 3 or 4 present consoles have been all with very good numbers selling at the same time making numbers on one level. Always for the one to be on top others have to be way down. Never the peak periods of the consoles meat let's say it in this way, because always if the one is in it's peak the other will be in not it's best form. (no weak sales performing consoles included.)

PSP, GBA , GAMEBOY did very good sales overall. I am just talking purely about reaching high year sales. And they did their best years. Okay forget that example if you want, it wasn't the best one. Here is another one.

Just imagine some pie. If the one console get's bigger slice the other consoles get's smaller. It can still be okay sized one, but it is way smaller than the bigger slice.

Wii and DS were the only example 2 consoles have sold best at the same time. And that was because one was handheld other one was home and they both hit their peak years back in 2007/2008. Switch had already hit it's peak years, and PS5 and XB are now rising. Everytime when some console comes out and start to rise the other that is/was on top goes down at some medium level. It can't happen for next year the switch to be 25M PS5 to be 20M and XBOX to be 15M. It's too much.