Probably not. It's not impossible (yet), and I would be pleasantly surprised if it did, but I doubt it will happen.

Nintendo is going to have to break with over two decades of past behavior and actually give serious, meaningful software support to the Switch for at least the next three years. And I'm not talking about just mid-level titles, spin-offs, and remakes/remasters. I'm talking new, original mega-blockbuster franchise titles. 2022 & 2023 are going to need to be as strong as 2017-2019 were in terms of software lineup. If we see things start to slow down next year, that could be a sign that Nintendo is drawing down support for the Switch in preparation for their next console, which isn't implausible considering their track record.

There's been plenty of multiplayer-heavy titles released later in a system's life that were supported into the next generation. They weren't indicators that the generation they belonged to was going to be extended. Splatoon 3 coming out early next year doesn't necessarily rule out a Switch successor in 2023/early 2024. I really don't see the Switch lasting longer than 7 years (for reference, the DS lasted about 6-½ years), which may not be enough time to catch up with the DS & PS2. As I said, Nintendo is going to have to throw everything they have at it for it to be the new #1. But given their track record I don't think they'll do that, and they probably don't consider the bragging rights that would come with dethroning the PS2 to be as big of a deal as people on the internet do. Neither they nor their shareholders certainly won't lose any sleep if they "only" end up as the new #3.

Also, I'd consider the Switch Lite to be a fairly significant refresh. It's a form-factor change that's more significant than the changes between the original DS and DS Lite. Proportionally, they had about the same size reduction. The Switch Lite is more portable than the undocked base model: it's only two inches longer side-to-side than a New 3DS XL, and about the same height as one. It's also considerably less expensive than the hybrid, though it's arguably a case of "you get what you pay for." While it isn't as popular as the hybrid model, it did boost sales quite a lot in Japan, though it had a more modest impact on sales in the U.S.

 There's also an issue of piracy in those markets which made certain systems really attractive like the PSP. Not sure how the Switch stacks up in terms of anti-piracy, but if Nintendo has successful measures, that would decrease the success it will have there. 

If piracy is a pro in developing countries (I know it is) then the Switch will do just fine, because it is plagued with piracy in those countries. 

Probably not. It's not impossible (yet), and I would be pleasantly surprised if it did, but I doubt it will happen. Personally, I'm thinking it'll end up somewhere in the 130-140M range.

On a regional basis, while the Switch is going to beat the PS2 by a very comfortable margin in Japan, and has a decent shot of beating the PS2 in the U.S., it's not going to get anywhere close to the PS2 in Europe. That European deficit will seriously hurt the Switch's chances of being the new #1 system globally, and I think it will likely completely prevent it from doing so.

Regarding Nintendo trying to extend the generation to maximize Switch sales, they can try, but another hardware revision alone won't cut it. Trying to grow sales through price cuts and/or hardware revisions is an effort that yields diminishing returns over time, regardless of the platform. With systems that have had multiple hardware revisions, the revisions released later on have never had a significant long-term effect, though they do often produce good short-term gains. This will likely be the case with the "Switch Pro," especially if it's a higher-priced, higher-end model (like the PS4 Pro or One X).

Nintendo is going to have to break with over two decades of past behavior and actually give serious, meaningful software support to the Switch for at least the next three years. And I'm not talking about just mid-level titles, spin-offs, and remakes/remasters. I'm talking new, original mega-blockbuster franchise titles. 2022 & 2023 are going to need to be as strong as 2017-2019 were in terms of software lineup. If we see things start to slow down next year, that could be a sign that Nintendo is drawing down support for the Switch in preparation for their next console, which isn't implausible considering their track record.

How does it compare to piracy on the PSP/PS2?

Probably not. It's not impossible (yet), and I would be pleasantly surprised if it did, but I doubt it will happen. Personally, I'm thinking it'll end up somewhere in the 130-140M range.

First off, the PS2 & DS sold about the same globally, with the DS coming up just short of the PS2 (mainly because of Europe and RoW favoring the PS2; the DS came out on top in the U.S. & Japan). If the Switch can't beat the DS globally, it can't beat the PS2. The Switch is trailing the DS in the U.S., Japan, and especially Europe. The only reason it isn't even deeper in the hole against the DS is because of the pandemic (and a temporary assist from Animal Crossing, which may or may not have also benefited from the pandemic). However, it is exceeding the PS2 in Japan, and will likely pass the PS2 before this year is out. In the U.S., the Switch recently pulled just slightly ahead of the PS2, if we exclude the PS2's launch holiday, but it's also worth pointing out that the PS2 continued to sell very well into the later years of its life (19.4M units from 2005 to 2011), which could limit or, further down the road, potentially eliminate whatever lead the Switch gains over it. However, in Europe the Switch isn't selling anywhere close to what the PS2 sold, and is even trailing the PS4 by a significant margin.

On a regional basis, while the Switch is going to beat the PS2 by a very comfortable margin in Japan, and has a decent shot of beating the PS2 in the U.S., it's not going to get anywhere close to the PS2 in Europe. That European deficit will seriously hurt the Switch's chances of being the new #1 system globally, and I think it will likely completely prevent it from doing so.

Regarding Nintendo trying to extend the generation to maximize Switch sales, they can try, but another hardware revision alone won't cut it. Trying to grow sales through price cuts and/or hardware revisions is an effort that yields diminishing returns over time, regardless of the platform. With systems that have had multiple hardware revisions, the revisions released later on have never had a significant long-term effect, though they do often produce good short-term gains. This will likely be the case with the "Switch Pro," especially if it's a higher-priced, higher-end model (like the PS4 Pro or One X).

Nintendo is going to have to break with over two decades of past behavior and actually give serious, meaningful software support to the Switch for at least the next three years. And I'm not talking about just mid-level titles, spin-offs, and remakes/remasters. I'm talking new, original mega-blockbuster franchise titles. 2022 & 2023 are going to need to be as strong as 2017-2019 were in terms of software lineup. If we see things start to slow down next year, that could be a sign that Nintendo is drawing down support for the Switch in preparation for their next console, which isn't implausible considering their track record.

Since 140 million is probably the minimum at this point it has a pretty decent shot right now.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

Even with this projection I'd say is really pessimistic it still gets to 140 so it just needs to do fairly better than that to beat the PS2 which isn't a massive ask.