| Shadow1980 said: Probably not. It's not impossible (yet), and I would be pleasantly surprised if it did, but I doubt it will happen. Personally, I'm thinking it'll end up somewhere in the 130-140M range. First off, the PS2 & DS sold about the same globally, with the DS coming up just short of the PS2 (mainly because of Europe and RoW favoring the PS2; the DS came out on top in the U.S. & Japan). If the Switch can't beat the DS globally, it can't beat the PS2. The Switch is trailing the DS in the U.S., Japan, and especially Europe. The only reason it isn't even deeper in the hole against the DS is because of the pandemic (and a temporary assist from Animal Crossing, which may or may not have also benefited from the pandemic). However, it is exceeding the PS2 in Japan, and will likely pass the PS2 before this year is out. In the U.S., the Switch recently pulled just slightly ahead of the PS2, if we exclude the PS2's launch holiday, but it's also worth pointing out that the PS2 continued to sell very well into the later years of its life (19.4M units from 2005 to 2011), which could limit or, further down the road, potentially eliminate whatever lead the Switch gains over it. However, in Europe the Switch isn't selling anywhere close to what the PS2 sold, and is even trailing the PS4 by a significant margin. On a regional basis, while the Switch is going to beat the PS2 by a very comfortable margin in Japan, and has a decent shot of beating the PS2 in the U.S., it's not going to get anywhere close to the PS2 in Europe. That European deficit will seriously hurt the Switch's chances of being the new #1 system globally, and I think it will likely completely prevent it from doing so. Regarding Nintendo trying to extend the generation to maximize Switch sales, they can try, but another hardware revision alone won't cut it. Trying to grow sales through price cuts and/or hardware revisions is an effort that yields diminishing returns over time, regardless of the platform. With systems that have had multiple hardware revisions, the revisions released later on have never had a significant long-term effect, though they do often produce good short-term gains. This will likely be the case with the "Switch Pro," especially if it's a higher-priced, higher-end model (like the PS4 Pro or One X). Nintendo is going to have to break with over two decades of past behavior and actually give serious, meaningful software support to the Switch for at least the next three years. And I'm not talking about just mid-level titles, spin-offs, and remakes/remasters. I'm talking new, original mega-blockbuster franchise titles. 2022 & 2023 are going to need to be as strong as 2017-2019 were in terms of software lineup. If we see things start to slow down next year, that could be a sign that Nintendo is drawing down support for the Switch in preparation for their next console, which isn't implausible considering their track record. |
This comment is a bit disingenuous as this year (2021), the switch is outselling the best year of the DS so far. It has sold at least 29mil in the fiscal year 2020-21 as well. That's close to the best year of the DS but less. And if does the same in 2021-22, it has a decent shot at having better legs than the DS. It's neck and neck with the DS, but you are making it seem like the switch currently seems to have no chance of outselling the DS.
And the pandemic is only one factor, the appeal of the switch is there with or without the pandemic. 25mil+ was pretty much always a possibility without the pandemic, maybe even 27mil+. It's hard to judge how much the pandemic helped because on the other hand, people had less discretionary spending as well. There was certainly a net positive effect in terms of sales, but it's not as clear cut and due to that reason alone. Simple fact is it's legs. 2021 is looking like another strong year, maybe even the best console year ever and certainly the top 3. 2022-24 will tell the actual story. It has a much higher chance than your post suggests.
Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also
