*Yawn* July.

The hierarchy is fully evident in July.

XBox 360 will be #2 overall but there's no stopping the Wii. They haven't even begun yet to show what they're gonna do on the sales charts.

And Halo is big, yes, but it ain't got nothing on Brawl. And dare I say Galaxy.  And dare I say even Wii Health and Music.

XBox 360 is doing very good in USA and that is their stronghold. It will be the American alternative to #1 Wii which will give a rich tapestry of game choices to choose from. Elsewhere as PS2 finally dies Wii takes all the spots with at best cameo appearances from the competitors.

People love the suspense. I'll try not to ruin the fun for you but the race for me has been decided since September 16, 2005. No suspense for me where this thing is going. Guess everybody will be slow to catch on until it happens dead in their faces. But I guess the need for suspense keep the discussion alive. Foregone conclusion as far as I'm concerned.

John Lucas 

my wiew,

japan ==> wii or PS3
america ==> wii or Xbox360
europe ==> share or wii

Wii sells easly cause of her price and her innovating concept.
but during the end of the year and when big game will come on PS3/Xbox360, we will see if Wii will resist or lose market share.
In fact, i don't know at which point Wii and Xbox360/PS3 are competing for the same place (this is The question)
IF the PS3/Xbox360 succeed to significatively improve their sales durring the Xmas period (to survive in fact), then Xbox360 dominating USA market (see how she is far in front compared to PS3), PS3 dominating in japan (cause nobody like Xbox360 except some hardcore gamers and cause more PS3 games seems targeted for japan (FFXIII, eye of judgement), and in Europe, one of the biggest market, I don't know, i think european people are still waiting, saving their money for price cut and games ....it is the most complicated market to predict i think

John, if the battle is already over, how come I dont see you in the top 5 every week for the predicton league in major Nintendo territories (Japan)? Or even the US.

Weren't you also the same one that said that by June, the Wii was going to overtake the 360 worldwide?

johnlucas said: And Halo is big, yes, but it ain't got nothing on Brawl. And dare I say Galaxy. And dare I say even Wii Health and Music.

 

Halo 3 will outsell those games in the US. Wii Health and Wii Music? Unless they bundle more Wiimotes with them that's not even gonna be close at all.

 

mrstickball said: John, if the battle is already over, how come I dont see you in the top 5 every week for the predicton league in major Nintendo territories (Japan)? Or even the US. Weren't you also the same one that said that by June, the Wii was going to overtake the 360 worldwide?

I make predictions that matter. I'm looking at big picture not small picture.

I've entered my year end predictions already.

And why don't you type "john lucas" in the forum search engine.

From the moment I set foot in this place last March I said *July* for Wii worldwide. That was my very first post! And I repeat myself frequently on the board like in this case here now.

I never wavered once and I will not waver.

You know I said July and I know you know I said July, you're just playing games.

But I'll play along. Here's the link to the thread with my very first and second post along with a full reprint of what I said there. Me from March 14, 2007:

"Worldwide Wii sales are now only 4 million behind Xbox 360 - closing the gap"

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=672

=================================================

I'm laughing at all the posts that say Wii can't beat XBox 360 this year.
LAUGHING!

Have you people been paying attention to these charts?
If VGCharts.org's figures are correct, Wii is gonna pass XBox 360 within the SUMMER!

YES! They will surpass XBox 360 by the summer.
XBox 360 has been at that 9 million mark for a while now while Wii seems to move a million a month!

In the Americas figures alone Wii is between the 1/3 & 1/2 mark of all XBox 360 sales.
Practically 40% of XBox 360's sales right NOW. Do the math:
40% of 5.82 = 2.328 or 5.82 X .40 = 2.328 ~> 2.33 (rounded off)

40% of 5.82 million is roughly 2.33 million

Wii has 2.29 million. Do you see how close that is?
Wii is on its way to not only SHIPPING 6 million worldwide by March but SELLING 6 million by March according to the charts VGCharts.org put together.
April, May, June at a million a month and Wii will be breathing down the neck of Microsoft's Green & White baby.

Within that summer whatever worldwide amount XBox 360 has sold (not shipped; as sold is the only thing that really matters) will be SURPASSED!
And that will probably be in the 10 million range.
And the sad thing is that it would have taken the 360 about a year & a half (18 months) to sell in the 10 million range while it took the Wii 8 months to do the same. A little less than HALF the time.
And all this with a STILL low supply in the stores. All these months and we're STILL at practically launch fever??? Can you imagine when supply finally picks up and people are more easily able to pick a machine up? Wii's sales are limited to availability because demand is insane!

People are buying this machine for their offices for God's sake! I just talked to a friend online who said that where she worked they are about to install a Wii. Sports bars adding Wiis & all this kind of stuff. More than just homes are buying Wiis now.

The old system sellers are gonna be outclassed. Nintendo has redefined system sellers. Wii Sports, Wii Play & the rest of games like that move systems now. Halo 3 & MGS4 & FF XIII will sell but they are not the lynchpins they once were. And that is because the audience who would play those games vs. the audience who will play those Wii type games will be vastly different & that there is more audience for the Wii types.
I have a 43-year old cousin who had no interest whatsoever in videogames since the beginning now actually wanting a Wii. Wii Sports interests him especially Wii Bowling since he's a bowler & when I told him Wii Play had billiards or pool his interest perked up even more. People are seriously underestimating this type of audience bringing in the numbers for Wii.

In fact Wii has been underestimated on every level & THAT will be the mistake that will haunt the competition & the naysayers. It was played that way on purpose and we are seeing the results on the sales charts.

I mean once Super Mario Galaxy comes out this holiday season & Nintendo unveils their full online playable titles we will be seeing NEW shortages & sellouts that will make Wii's representation on the charts baffling dumbfounding to disbelief!

I predict by end of year we'll be seeing Wii be on its way to that 20 million mark probably even passed that. That is not hyperbole. Half a year they sell 10 million so why do you think the other half they can't sell 10 million? You know holiday sales give a little more oomph than rest of year, right?
It's just 4 measly months and Wii is about to sell 6 million. Nobody in their right mind can look at this figure and see the Wii falling off. If so it's just blind hope & irrational disbelief in the legitmacy of the Wii console.
Nintendo counts on being counted out. That's where they hurt you the most. But in the end sooner or later people are gonna recognize Wii as a force to be reckoned with.
The Revolution they promised with this system is happening before your very eyes ready or not.

The WiiDS Phenomenon
http://www.popzart.com/viewtopic.php?topic=514

John Lucas

===================================================

Well that's what I'm proposing. I see Wii besting the 360 within the month of July. By August We will see Wii pulling ahead. You gotta remember Wii sales are slowed because of demand keeping these things out of the stores for any decent period of time. It's only recently that I started seeing Wiis in stores and basically one or two at best. And these don't last long. When I got my copy of Wii Play it was the only one LEFT! I had to visit different stores to find it! The first time I was looking for it just came home empty handed. People are STILL having stories here in mid-March about not being able to find Wiis & waiting in lines to get one. The best source for this kind of info is talking to store clerks in the electronic depts. at Wal-Marts & stores like that. Folks who don't really care about games and are exasperated at the work put on them by these game system buyers.

I've had mine since December the 6th after foolishly thinking I could just waltz in on launch day and get in line for a Wii at the last minute. FOOLISH! I never bought a system a launch before & basically lucked out getting that Wii because I work a night job & could get to the store in the early morning hours. My friend who went with me that launch day & wants a Wii still hasn't gotten one yet.

Wii's sales are only held back by supply. That's all. Shipped DOES equal Sold (to customers not Sold to Retailers) when it comes to Wii because they are virtually sold out within minutes or hours upon reaching the stores. There are no Wii pyramids on the storeroom floor. Some people don't even know what the Wii box looks like.

I'm not saying 360 can't sell & that Halo 3 won't move units. That's a given. I actually see Guitar Hero II on XBox 360 being a bigger system seller & seeing them put that against PS3's launch shows me Microsoft means business.
Guitar Hero II on XBox 360: The Ramifications
http://www.popzart.com/viewtopic.php?topic=340

But I guarantee you that we won't have to wait 'til fall to see Wii catching the 360. It will be the worldwide leader this summer I guarantee you. By holiday season will be start of its domination period which will carry it all the way through this generation as top system. By then it's not just gonna outsell the competition it's gonna overshadow the competition.

You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii.
We'll just have to see if I'm right.
I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing.
I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions.

John Lucas

there´s no way to know if the Wii will remain the top system,sales wise,through the rest of this gen,john...a lot can happen in 4/5 years >_>

albhum said: a.l.e.x59 said: North America is the richest continent in the world, so I guess more people can afford the consoles. Not really, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

How many people live in the EU? Over half a billion or thereabouts? Considering that the GDP of the entire EU is marginally larger than the US with nearly double the population isn't refuting alex's comments. 

rocketpig said: albhum said: a.l.e.x59 said: North America is the richest continent in the world, so I guess more people can afford the consoles. Not really, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29   How many people live in the EU? Over half a billion or thereabouts? Considering that the GDP of the entire EU is marginally larger than the US with nearly double the population isn't refuting alex's comments.

This I believe shows Europe to be slightly richer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_per_capitaHowever its kind of pointless as both continents clearly are very rich. 

 

How are you measuring how rich people are in a country by measuring the GDP? You measure the GDP per capita...

The richest people are in Luxemburg, Ireland, Norway, USA, Iceland and so on...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita

That's the list you should check not the GDP of the countries.

RolStoppable said: I love to read your posts, johnlucas. Wii passing 360 worldwide within the month of july, that's still possible. Wii passing 360 in the USA within the month of july is out of reach though. My Wii vs. 360 in the USA predictions are in my signature. I hope they become true.

Your signature prediction is kinda outrageous.  You're expecting the 360 to only sell 2 million from May - Dec in the US dispite the fact that there are so many very big games coming out this year for the 360 compared to last year where it sold far more than you're expecting now?  Last Nov-Dec it sold over 1.6 million consoles largely based on just Gears of War, and this year there will be at least 2 titles of that magnitude (Halo 3, GTAIV) and several  likely million sellers or more (Mass Effect, Bioshock, Assassin's Creed, Too Human, Call of Duty 4, Unreal Tournament 3, etc).  Does your number also take into account a possible price drop?