Over the past few weeks this point has become painfully clear to me. It appears as though Nintendo has realized that the war in Japan is over (at least until the release of FFXIII roles around in 2008) and that a slightly weaker Sony brandname has leveled the playing field in Europe considerably. Nintendo is now engaged in an all-out war to regain the respect it has lost in the Americas, and to do so they must defeat Microsoft. The increased production of Wiis has not been evenly distributed across the world as Nintendo scrambles to gain leverage (and close on the lead Microsoft has) in the Americas  either before the "hype" fades, or, more likely, before an increasingly strong software lineup for X360 makes their struggle futile (Halo 3, Bioshock, GTA IV and new popular titles like GoW getting sequels). Threads like "why the wii will never catch up to 360 in america" seem to reinforce this point. If the Wii can not gain enough ground in the Americas to ever outsell the 360, then it will never become a runaway success like the PS1/2. Yes, it will still sell phenomenally (particullarly in Japan), but it will never reach those levels (especially with its short lifespan-- probably 5 years max before the Wii 2/HD hits stores).

 Sales for the past 5 weeks with "increased production":

 Japan                    Americas                   

72,933                       88,846

90,511                     134,631

90,982                     130,989

55,217                     125,928

56,605                     121,277

*Post golden week Nintendo has refocused on the Americas (diverting supplies from that region) in an effort to gain valuable ground on the 360. If they can catch up to and outsell the 360 there (especially after the chaos that will be this holiday season), it might follow a PS2-esque path until it is discontinued (thus stopping it far short from the 100+million club) 

360* in America vs Wii 

38,465                             88,846

56,465                           134,631

64,537                           130,989

63,778                           125,928

58,825                           121,277

*Note: numbers are slightly skewed due to the release of the Elite 

VG Totals as of last week:

Wii: 3,061,173

360: 6,224,514

Will they be able to do it and maintain the lead in the face of upcoming incredible 360 software? Does the Wii really need to win in America to become a runaway success, or am I on crack?

----

P.S: I apologize that there are no bells and whistles (i.e. graphs, etc.) to go along with this... but I hope I managed to come across coherently. 

I tend to think so. I really believe NA is key for the Wii to win. It doesnt necessarily have outsell the 360, but, at least, match them.

wii doesnt have to do well in america to win, even if the 360 sold ps2 levels in the US , if it flops in europe and japan the wii could still sell most. Wii is king in japan, no other console is king anywhere else for the moment, so it will be interesting to see.

Well, I would say that Nintendo is King. It took a while to take the title back from Sony, but the DS started the dominace, and the Wii wil continue it.

North America, the key for the Wii to win? Ha, ha, ha! The Xbox 360 is doing absurdly horrible in Japan, and the same for the Playstation 3. Wii is doing tremendously well in Japan. Also, you have to remember that Japan is much smaller than North America. The Wii is doing extremely well, everywhere. The Playstation 3, and Xbox 360 aren't doing too well, everywhere.

Your 100% spot on. The issue is that Japan + Europe = NA, or very close, for most major systems. For the N64 and GC, 66% of Nintendo's sales came in America. The thing I've noticed with Nintendo, as you've stated, is that they are really trying to win the US by shipping more and more consoles to the US versus the already-won Japan (which isnt ultra-bright, as you might as well try to totally kill the PS3 while your at it). The major selling point of the US is the software tier ratios. They are about 50% better than Japan's, and the software is more accessable. In Japan, 3rd party games are doing good at 50k, in the US, they're doing good at 500k. Also, the US enjoys a tier ratio nearing 4.0 units per system versus Japan's 2.1 or so (yes, the 4 includes Wii Sports, but even w/o, it's still 50% higher). Not only this, but the US Dollar is weakening vs. the Yen, therefore, shipping the units to the US becomes a cheaper venture, which can afford Nintendo better advantages in dominating the market.

The question is, mrstickball (AKA only 360 supporter on the site), do you believe it will out do THE BOX? Just your opinion.

I think Nintendo has a good chance of countering the release of Halo 3 and GTA4 (not exclusive) and Bioshock? (never heard of this game), with Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros for the holiday season... With sonic and MArio in the olimpics targeted to the same audience of wii sports... I see it a a big title for this holiday. If they can up production even more (they are at 1.5 millionish right now), it will be only matter of months until they get to 360 levels in the US.

 You are forgetting, the upcoming incredible Wii software and also the upcoming incredible PS3 software...

If the 360 was from any other American company besides Microsoft, I would probably be interested in it, but personally I think it will end up in last place.  (at least in terms of my chance of getting one...  although it probably does have a better chance then PS3 at this point, but too soon to say unil Dec/Jan)

Jeez sometimes I think people don't even read the threads.

What he is saying is if the 360 held a 50 percent market level in the U.S. the wii could NEVER gain the dominance that the PS2 did.

Now as for the other guy saying that the other consoles have incredible software- they do but, the 360 is putting all its big guns out this holiday season and its putting out bigger names then the other companies.