Yea the OG Switch model is in low supply. Apparently next week will be a little better, but they are probably saving stock for Golden week.

Rise launched at 2 million, its over 2.75 million already with digital. The comparison with Monster Hunter 4 on the 3DS is the best one I can think off but the thing to keep in mind again is that this title will have unusually long legs for a game in the franchise. So by end of year it will be competing for the Top Spot of all time in Japan. 

Next few weeks are the most important, if Rise can keep itself above 100K physical through out Golden Week, it will be on pace to overtake MH4's lifetime sales fairly quickly. Monster Hunter 4 shipments are around 4.1 million something I think Rise can surpass this year in Japan. 

Famitsu Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 111.230 / 2.817.937 <80-100%> (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 97.336 / 2.915.273 <80-100%> (-12%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 60.206 / 2.975.479 <80-100%> (-38%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 47.393 / 3.022.872 <80-100%> (-21%)

yeah lotta year left but seems very likely 2021 will beat 2020 in Japan for the Switch. Wonder if it could go as high as 6.5 million. Would that put it right around 3DS shipments at end of this year?

Also it's crazy just like casually being like yeah 2021 definitely looks likely to beat 2020, considering that as last year was happening the sales seemed so insane ;p

Good hold for MHR
Switch is again supply limited, especially the base model. But at least it's nowhere near as extreme as last year after Animal Crossing released

Crazy so many switch games will be in Japan's best selling games of all time list. The switch should have more than 10 in the top 50 with a least 3 in the top 10 by the end of the year. 

Only a 30% drop for MH Rise. The game looks like it's going to have some legs.

Monster Hunter is the star of the show here obviously, but Momotaro is really something special, hanging in there at #3 after several months even against Nintendo's biggest games.

Top 30: https://www.gematsu.com/2021/04/famitsu-sales-4-5-21-4-11-21

1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom, 03/26/21) – 194,327 (1,774,063)
2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury (Nintendo, 02/12/21) – 21,590 (642,106)
3. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 12,920 (2,101,505)
4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 10,439 (3,774,112)
5. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 10,154 (2,501,449)
6. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 9,408 (1,892,400)
7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 7,835 (4,236,044)
8. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 7,406 (6,727,920)
9. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 4,783 (3,836,779)
10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 4,634 (4,023,912)
11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 4,161 (677,068)
12. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 3,545 (1,858,412)
13. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous, 02/25/21) – 2,915 (269,842)
14. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco, 02/10/21) – 2,695 (62,297)
15. [NSW] Apex Legends Champion Edition (Electronic Arts, 03/18/21) – 2,354 (21,082)
16. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 2,199 (1,804,987)
17. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,087 (1,084,206)
18. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,056 (137,185)
19. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous, 11/12/20) – 1,880 (150,434)
20. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo, 01/11/19) – 1,729 (1,051,241)
21. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo, 10/27/17) – 1,712 (2,224,385)
22. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise (Imagineer, 12/03/20) – 1,652 (88,062)
23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition (New Price Version) (Square Enix, 12/04/20) – 1,614 (87,682)
24. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix, 02/26/21) – 1,507 (134,858)
25. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 1,454 (759,593)
26. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo, 10/30/21) – 1,406 (556,022)
27. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,388 (585,212)
28. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix, 04/01/21) – 1,370 (7,966)
29. [NSW] Ace Angler: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 1,352 (578,474)
30. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 (Konami, 07/09/20) – 1,324 (295,797)

29 for Switch, including the top 27 spots, only 1 for anything else.

Anything coming out in next week's numbers?

The PS4 and Switch version of Winning Post 9 will definitively show up.