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Rise launched at 2 million, its over 2.75 million already with digital. The comparison with Monster Hunter 4 on the 3DS is the best one I can think off but the thing to keep in mind again is that this title will have unusually long legs for a game in the franchise. So by end of year it will be competing for the Top Spot of all time in Japan. 

Next few weeks are the most important, if Rise can keep itself above 100K physical through out Golden Week, it will be on pace to overtake MH4's lifetime sales fairly quickly. Monster Hunter 4 shipments are around 4.1 million something I think Rise can surpass this year in Japan. 

Famitsu Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 111.230 / 2.817.937 <80-100%> (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 97.336 / 2.915.273 <80-100%> (-12%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 60.206 / 2.975.479 <80-100%> (-38%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 47.393 / 3.022.872 <80-100%> (-21%)