TBH, I still can't believe that the Switch is currently outpacing the Wii and going neck and neck with the DS. After the Wii U gen I never thought another Nintendo system and let alone the Switch would sell not only over 100 Million units, but potentially even come close to the PS2 and DS in sales.

The reason why I never thought a Nintendo console or the Switch would see 100 Million is because I thought most of the casuals Nintendo appealed to with the Wii and DS completely moved on to smartphone games and I didn't think there would be a gimmick as impressive as the Wii and DS to bring them back. And Nintendo never really showed the willingness to compete with PlayStation and Xbox to get the 3rd party support to bring the console gamers back.

And looking at the Switch, while the hybrid concept is impressive and one of the things I love about the Switch. I didn't think the gimmick was anywhere near as impressive as let's say the Wii or DS where motion controls and touch screen gaming was pretty new and novel technology unlike a lot of what people haven't seen before. While the hybrid concept is cool, it isn't anything that the consumer likely hasn't seen before where we've seen the Nvidia shield tablet able to connect to the TV while playing portably or other portable devices able to connect to a TV.

Also, who do you think is mostly buying the Switch. The more dedicated console gamers from PS and Xbox or casuals who maybe only played the Wii coming back to Nintendo or going to Nintendo for the first time?

In my opinion: Nintendo are always trying to do something different. While you can choose between PS5 or Xbox, the Switch has a separate world of games

Also, Nintendo really have the younger audience totally sown up. Microsoft and Sony don't even bother with family friendly.

Nintendo woke up one day and said, hey you know the Wii U and Vita? Let's do that but good this time.

(ftr I love Vita)

It's Nintendo. They have the first party games that have the widest audience. Once they have a console concept that works well enough it's pretty much a done deal.

The part of the market that wants TV only high end graphics and all the AAA games might be large, but I don't think it will ever be larger than the Family market.

Also, families will easily buy multiple hybrid/portables for each member of the family, but hardly any of them are going to buy more than one PS or XBOX.

Plus _some_ of the stuff Rol said.

Portable plus combining the scope/scale of big ticket Nintendo console experiences (something couldn't be previously done) has been the a successful combo for Nintendo.

Home console market in a traditional sense has been a rough go for them since the SNES because people want in part a home console to be like a DVD/VCR/television appliance and they always have. They want wide variety of content, they don't want to be told "well you can't have this game or that channel" ... the responsibility of the "big box console" even the NES/SNES was to provide the widest breadth of content and then let the consumer decide what they want. It's the same way no one would want a speciality TV that only showed a few channels even if one of the channels being shown was fantastic in quality. So Sony took over that aspect of the market, but Nintendo defended the portable side of their market well until smartphones became a problem about 10 years ago.

Switch addresses the rise of mobile gaming eating away at the traditional handheld market by going upmarket, you can't really play games of the scope/scale of Breath of the Wild or even really Mario Kart 8 on mobile, no one would give away games like that for free. And Nintendo looks like they are continuing to ensure they'll have a good gap here as mobile games improve and consoles are getting better, Nintendo looks to be upgrading the current Switch significantly to be able to display 4K games and likely better fidelity, which keeps the product unique. There is nothing on the mobile market that's going to have 4K games like BOTW2 going forward. Very astute of Furukawa to go this route, gotta keep your hardware fresh and not rest on your laurels. 

For this past year, also COVID no doubt has had a monstrous impact, it's the biggest global event since World War II and it set up for Nintendo's purposes in an unplanned way pretty much perfectly ... the world went into lock down basically around March 2020, just as Animal Crossing released. That's just an extremely fortunate turn of events. Then for the rest of the 12 months, the lineup Nintendo has had has been mediocre (Musou game as their big holiday title, a new Paper Mario as really their only medium sized release, no big scale releases) but it hasn't really mattered. They're also in the middle of their product cycle so they have much more inventory to sell, MS/Sony who are selling out of every PS5/XBS are seeing benefit too but they're basically bottlenecked by not having enough supply because those are brand new systems. So the timing isn't really as great for them.

Amazing Nintendo games + compelling hardware concept vs two expensive similar systems that play a lot of the same games and don't do anything new but have better graphics.

The idea that Switch's hybrid concept should be a surprise success because the Nvidia Shield exists is a bizarre opinion. Like, who the hell care about the Nvidia Shield?? What games can even be played on it? So Nvidia made a tablet. Big deal. There are lots of tablets out there. Nintendo provides a fluent ecosystem focused on hardware/software synergy with incredible quality and they are a highly regarded consumer brand. It'd be like saying you're surprised iPhones are popular when so and so random company also has a smart phone.

Switch is bringing in casual non-gamers with stuff like Ring Fit, AC, etc. It's of course bringing in Nintendo fans. It's bringing in children and their parents cuz it's got a load of fun games and the big games in the library aren't all focused on violent action games. And it brings in everyone because its got loads of amazing games and you can play anywhere. It also opens up usage for more types of games because portable is more amenable to play sessions of any length as opposed to home consoles which have the general idea that you're sitting down for a longer play session.

Basically the Switch tells a compelling story:
Play a variety of the best modern games (not small handheld games) and the treasure trove of Nintendo first party games that you'll never get anywhere else, and literally anywhere you want instead of being stuck on your couch.

Compare that to the story essentially told by the other two.
Sony: Play all the best graphics big action games and sports games.
Microsoft: Same as Sony but not as many.

I don't know about Xbox but there are tons of family friend titles in PS Store

I think Nintendo putting all its focus on one device helps. We've also reached a point where console quality games are mobile at a reasonable price.

Vita wasn't quite there, it didn't connect to a TV and Sony gave it half ass support given it wasn't their priority. I like the Vita, but it was more of the same we kinda expect from portables.

People also need to stop this narrative Switch owners are somewhat different than any other kind or gamers

For instance, in UK a market with no clear allegiance to any console brand where all 3 big consoles have a healthy performance 60% of Switch userbase have a ​PS4 and 51% have a Xbox. This data is tricky because they are including people who have all 3 consoles together in both groups 

Source: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/12/switch_owners_most_likely_to_own_a_rival_console_2020_study_shows

A little basic of maths can help us to solve this puzzle. Let's call Switch and PS4 owners SP, Switch and Xbox SX, Switch only S and all 3 SPX

SP + SX + S - SPX = 100% of Switch owners 

Hence:

S - SPX = 100 - 60 - 51

S - SPX = -11

Granted there is MORE Switch owners who have all 3 systems than Switch owners who only have a Switch 

Well mathematically speaking the limit threshold for SPX (owners who owns all 3 consoles) is 51%, same number of owners of SX group. In this scenario:

- Switch owners who have a PS4 but not a Xbox are 9%

- Switch owners who have a Xbox but no PS4 are 0%

- And the number of people who only have a Switch is 40% 

A the floor limit is 11% (i.e. no Switch-only owners). In this case:

- 49% of Switch owners have a PS4 but no Xbox

- 40% of Switch owners have a Xbox but no PS4

- No Switch one have only a Switch 

The most realistic number is somewhere in-between: 31% Switch owners having all 3 consoles. In this case 

- 20% of Switch owners have only a Switch 

- 38% of Switch owners have a PS4 but no Xbox

- 30% of Switch owners have a Xbox but no PS4

Point is no matter how much you torture and stretch data you will always fall in a scenario where over 60% of Switch owners have at least one more console

Remember CONSOLE

This is even excluding PC gamers who can have neither XBONE nor PS4 and still having a Switch 

TDLR, I don't see any reason to think Switch userbase is in anyway different from other consoles, at least in markets where all 3 consoles can stand in the same ground

If we go to Japan Nintendo will utterly destroy both only due to the fact they have the IPs that appeals Japanese market the best. This is so clear that even when Nintendo bombed (Wii U) we have seen no substantial upward trajectory in console sales for neither Sony or Microsoft in Japan 

In other hand when we go to emergent markets like Latin America, Middle West and East Europe Nintendo awful distribution, lack of IP awareness and high price policy hold them back. People will buy Sony or Microsft because they are actually bother lowering their profits to make a secure foot in those markets

This.  Nintendo's nostalgia factor is like wine: it only gets better with time.  I am sure that the lockdown only accentuates this nostalgia factor making people (like myself) yearn for the simpler days of the 80's/90's when life was just fun. 

Nintendo's biggest enemy has always been its own ability to produce hardware that gamers and game developers want.  People (adults and kids) want to play Nintendo's IP and are just looking for a reason to do so.  The Switch hardware being sleek and cool has given people this reason.