Capcom just announced Rise has already moved 4m units at launch, game is still sold out in Japan, for comparison World moved 5m at launch but was on two platforms at the time (PC release came later).

https://www.kitguru.net/gaming/matthew-wilson/monster-hunter-rise-sold-four-million-copies-at-launch/

It should be visually better than World on PC it's built on the RE engine and not MT Framework that World uses.

Considering that half of World's sales are on PC, and XBox only makes up a small portion of the total numbers, I will say that between Switch and PC it will sell similar to World. If I had to lean one way or the other, I would say it will sell a little more overall given Switch popularity in Japan (MH's biggest market).

The only thing that could hinder this is that World saw a sales boost when prices were slashed to sub 20 USD less than a year from launch.  I, for example, got my PS4 copy for 11 USD new.  I am not so sure we will see a price cut of that magnitude for a Switch console exclusive.

https://www.pcgamesinsider.biz/news/69823/monster-hunter-world-on-pc-sold-45m-copies-by-march-2019/

This is based off of 2019 sales data so it is a little dated, but at the time total sales on all platforms was around 12 mil.  If XBox accounts for 2 mil of those numbers, then PC is pretty in line with PS4.

Obviously it is not exactly half, and could lean one way or the other overtime.  But saying PC makes up about half of the overall sales is not a far cry at all, as a general statement.

20 to 25 million. Assuming that Switch sells 120 million lifetime, and MHR maintains the same 8.6% attach ratio that MH4 and Generations enjoyed, then we have over 10 million sales already. Lots of Switch titles outperformed their 3DS counterparts in attach ratio. Animal Crossing went from around 12 million units sold on 3DS to over 30 million on Switch. Splatoon 2, Smash, and Zelda all had similar improvements going to Switch. So taking that into account we can expect minimum 15 million units sold from Switch alone. Add in PC sales and it's an easy 20 million.

Ah nice, some updated numbers!

So it looks like PC makes up about half of overall sales outside of Japan, while PS4 makes up the vast majority within.  This will definitely be an interesting comparison to follow.

On one hand, the Switch is much more popular than the PS4 in Japan due to portability.  This could translate to even higher sales potential in that region than initially anticipated, since XBox is a non-factor there.  As for outside of Japan, I don't see it doing any worse than the PS4 version of World did alone as the floor.  Looking at how Nintendo is pushing the game and the timing of its release, that seems like a given.

What the total number will hinge on is how well the PC release does next year, and if that combined with the higher install base in the franchise's biggest market (Japan) will be enough to make up for XBox sales of World in other markets.

This is a very good start.  We all know that Nintendo first party games often have really good legs, but in Japan Switch third party games often have better legs than the same title on PS4.  This game might have good legs.  (Too early to tell.)  Part of it just has to do with how a good chunk of Switch gamers don't make a day 1 purchase.

PS4 version 8.7 mi

PC version 5.9 mi 

Xbox version 1.8 mi

Ok with this breakdown I'm now sure Rise will outsell PS4 version by a comfortably margin 

Switch popularity in Japan will hardcarry console sales, JP sales for World were about only 3.2 million. Rise will easily double this number, yes I'm taking about over 6.4 million in Japan alone

Number outside Japan might be weaker for Rise than it was for world but I don't think they will decrease for anything less than 4 million after World selling over 5.5 million outside Japan (in PS4)

10 million for Switch version only is doable, and even 11-12 million is possible just harder 

PC version however I don't see performing as good as World. There is no value for PC owners in playing local co-op, World have better graphics and overall a more accessible approach for newcomers, I think part of PC gamers are more likely to skip Rise and wait for World sequel than console owners. It will probably sell well over 3 million copies still

So the low-end scenario for Rise is about 8-9 million on Switch plus a bit over 2 million on PC, essentially flopping outside Japan 

The realistic scenario about 11-12 million on Switch plus something over 4 million on PC.  Almost outselling World or outselling World, but barely 

And the very optimistic scenario about 14-16 million on Switch plus more 7 million copies on PC, this game mist outsell World in every market and every platform, possible but not see it happening 

MHR won't easily double MHW in Japan. It can, but it won't be easy, since the as of now best selling MH game in Japan is Portable 3rd with 4.8mil on the PSP and 300k on the PS3 from the HD version.

If MHR sells 6.4mil units in Japan on the Switch alone it would be by far the best selling third party game ever in Japan. I hope this happens, but it's nowhere near guaranteed.

No Monster Hunter was ever issued in a platform as popular as Switch is in Japan