PS4 version 8.7 mi
PC version 5.9 mi
Xbox version 1.8 mi
Ok with this breakdown I'm now sure Rise will outsell PS4 version by a comfortably margin
Switch popularity in Japan will hardcarry console sales, JP sales for World were about only 3.2 million. Rise will easily double this number, yes I'm taking about over 6.4 million in Japan alone
Number outside Japan might be weaker for Rise than it was for world but I don't think they will decrease for anything less than 4 million after World selling over 5.5 million outside Japan (in PS4)
10 million for Switch version only is doable, and even 11-12 million is possible just harder
PC version however I don't see performing as good as World. There is no value for PC owners in playing local co-op, World have better graphics and overall a more accessible approach for newcomers, I think part of PC gamers are more likely to skip Rise and wait for World sequel than console owners. It will probably sell well over 3 million copies still
So the low-end scenario for Rise is about 8-9 million on Switch plus a bit over 2 million on PC, essentially flopping outside Japan
The realistic scenario about 11-12 million on Switch plus something over 4 million on PC. Almost outselling World or outselling World, but barely
And the very optimistic scenario about 14-16 million on Switch plus more 7 million copies on PC, this game mist outsell World in every market and every platform, possible but not see it happening
Essay Pro