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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - FY2021 Q3 result of Nintendo : can it be the biggest Q3 of all time ?

 

Biggest Q3 of all time in both $ and HW sales ?

YES 6 46.15%
 
NO 7 53.85%
 
Total:13
Amnesia on 31 January 2021

It is for tomorrow 1st February.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nintendo-quarter-earnings-preview-q3-1030022099

Overview of all shipments for: DS - Wii - Switch - PS4

Last edited by Amnesia - on 31 January 2021

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Amnesia on 31 January 2021
RolStoppable said:

Hard to tell when the currency exchange rate between yen and USD fluctuated a lot over the years. It's not as simple as opening old financial reports, looking at the yen figures and comparing them to today's.

Nintendo has certainly sold more hardware and software units during the DS and Wii peak, but those were sold at lower prices than Switch hardware and software. Simply put, if you are going to ask such a question, present the historical numbers yourself instead of relying on someone else to do the work.

You are right I have been lazy here. Can we find easily the shipments of the DS ? With this I could complete a table and put it on the OP



Dulfite on 31 January 2021

I look forward to the completion of this OP!



javi741 on 31 January 2021

Based off of the sales numbers we've seen from NPD and Famitsu this past holiday season, it doesn't seem like Nintendo shipped much more units then the 2019 Holiday season, so ill say no.



Amnesia on 31 January 2021
javi741 said:

Based off of the sales numbers we've seen from NPD and Famitsu this past holiday season, it doesn't seem like Nintendo shipped much more units then the 2019 Holiday season, so ill say no.

So VGC is tracking it too high and they wait tomorrow for big correction to lower numbers ?

Here I see 10,02 millions for holidays 2019 and 12,15 millions for holidays 2020



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mk7sx on 31 January 2021

HW yes.  Profit will also be the biggest for Nintendo ever.  However, revenue can't match 08 and 09 Q3, when two systems were moving >21M units together at almost $400 combined MSRP.

Here's what I posted in the other Q3 thread and Era (expecting 12.8-12.9M for NSW).

Here's what I just posted on Era.

BEGIN QUOTE

---------

Nintendo Shipments

Nintendo Sell-through Pixel Counting:

FY | Q |    JP |    NA |   EUR |   TOT |

18 | 1 |   560 |   730 |   510 | 1,800 |

18 | 2 |   630 |   800 |   640 | 2,070 |

18 | 3 | 1,690 | 3,610 | 2,580 | 7,880 |

18 | 4 |   970 | 1,200 |   750 | 2,920 |

19 | 1 |   510 |   890 |   670 | 2,070 |

19 | 2 | 1,010 | 1,030 |   810 | 2,850 |

19 | 3 | 1,990 | 4,080 | 2,860 | 8,930 |

19 | 4 | 1,500 | 1,680 | 1,050 | 4,230 |

---------

With the two sets of data above, the net inventory buffer (Q3 shipment - (tracked sales + Q2 net inventory buffer) = 8% across NA/JP/EUR.  I plugged 10% for JP/Other and 5% for NA/EUR, yielding 6.6% overall with the numbers below.  Last year Japan was much higher than that figure, as was Europe, but NA was approx 3%.  I think these assumptions are conservative.

For Europe, I built a breakdown of 475/975/1410K for 2019 Oct/Nov/Dec then plugged known Oct/Nov 2020 shifts and kept Dec flat to get to a round 3,275K sell-through for the quarter.  For JP I plugged ~120K for MyNintendo Store sales of plain HW, ACNH bundles, and RFA bundles.  Honestly have no idea if that is too aggressive or not, this is the 2nd weakest assumption IMO.

For NA untracked sales, I used US NPD sell-through as 90% of total NA sell-through (last year was 92.3% - we know CA has been tracking relatively higher this year).

Other + Eur was 127% of Q1 US and 114% of Q2 US.  Using my Europe shipment figure and an assumption of 110% for Q3, I get just under 2M shipped for "Other".  This is the least sound assumption I'd argue, so we'll see how much it varies.

Here's what I get (everything at the end is rounded down to the nearest 10K.

All of that yields ~12.9M shipped.  If Dec 2020 Europe is up at all, we hit 13M.  If my assumption is too soft on the "Other" bucket, we hit 13M.  If My Nintendo store sales are larger, we hit 13M.  If all of the above, we target 13.5M.

If stock was more plentiful at the end of Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019, then my net buffer assumptions are too large and we trend closer to 12.5M (or maybe even lower).  <12M seems difficult unless global net inv buffer is negative, ie more leftover stock at the end of Q2 instead of Q3.  Based on really strong relative Oct in US/EUR, that's not impossible, but US December rebound from Nov (+23.5% weekly sales) goes against that (but not strongly) - similar story in JP (especially early Jan).

---------

END QUOTE

  

Last edited by mk7sx - on 31 January 2021

mk7sx on 31 January 2021
javi741 said:

Based off of the sales numbers we've seen from NPD and Famitsu this past holiday season, it doesn't seem like Nintendo shipped much more units then the 2019 Holiday season, so ill say no.

NPD US is up 11% for the quarter from 2019.

NPD CA was up stronger through Nov (Nov was up YoY, whereas US was down), but didn't get Dec numbers yet.

JP Famitsu was basically flat, but calendar alignment means that more of Week 1/53 falls inside calendar of 2020 than it did in 2019.  That plus stronger first weeks of January should help.

JP also had unknown quantity of new RFA bundle and ACNH bundle sell through My Nintendo Store that are not tracked by Famitsu (plus any plain Switches sold through the store as well - same as last year).  Neither was present last year, so these should offer a little buffer as well.

Europe I posted above - if Dec is flat, it'll have a nice increase over last year (Nov was around 95-98% of 2019, Oct was almost double 2019).  

Brazil was absent in 2019 Q3 and China only had 3-4 weeks of sales in 2019.  This year, both are being supplied for all 13 weeks.