The price alone will probably prevent it from reaching Switch-level sales.
Farsala said:
As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m. Switch: 130m Japan- 29m Americas- 51m Europe- 33.5m Others- 16.5m Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30. 2021- 92.86m 2022-112m 2023- 122m 2024- 126m 2025 and etc.- 130m Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction. |
Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions). I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.
| Sept 30, 2021 | Farsala Lifetime | Laser Lifetime | |
| Japan | 22.06 | 29 | 37 |
| Americas | 36.31 | 51 | 58 |
| Europe | 23.6 | 33.5 | 49 |
| Other | 10.89 | 16.5 | 26 |
| Total | 92.86 | 130 | 170 |
One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters. That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year. That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate). That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
Farsala said:
As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m. Switch: 130m Japan- 29m Americas- 51m Europe- 33.5m Others- 16.5m Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30. 2021- 92.86m 2022-112m 2023- 122m 2024- 126m 2025 and etc.- 130m Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction. |
There's a zero chance the Switch doesn't reach 30mil in Japan.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters. That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year. That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate). That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. |
@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m
21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84%
DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81%
Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93%
PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80%
Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii.
Kakadu18 said:
There's a zero chance the Switch doesn't reach 30mil in Japan. |
Bump me when it does, I will still not be too far off.
Farsala said:
@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m 21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84% DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81% Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93% PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80% Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii. |
Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year.
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 05 November 2021curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year. |
It really isn't that abnormal.
NDS shipped an even more impressive 27.11m in a single fiscal year and then the rest of the lifetime was 25m.
Still, I guess we are part of opposite extremes when it comes to Switch LTD sales.
Farsala said:
It really isn't that abnormal. NDS shipped an even more impressive 27.11m in a single fiscal year and then the rest of the lifetime was 25m. Still, I guess we are part of opposite extremes when it comes to Switch LTD sales. |
There is one gigantic difference you're missing the ds had a successor straight after that fiscal year. The switch doesn't even have rumours of a successor yet.
Farsala said:
It really isn't that abnormal. NDS shipped an even more impressive 27.11m in a single fiscal year and then the rest of the lifetime was 25m. Still, I guess we are part of opposite extremes when it comes to Switch LTD sales. |
It is, in fact, abnormal. The DS had the steepest drop off of any system ever. On top of that, even in that scenario it's remainder was 92.5% of that 27.11 year, while you are predicting an even lower 89.5% for the remainder of Switch's life. The only notable DS software for that time period was Pokemon Black/White, while Nintendo is still planning plenty of software for the Switch. And the DS had gotten a price cut, while Switch still hasn't gotten one and has a whole lot of room to drop the price.
You are predicting the biggest cliff in history while all factors point to their being no cliff at all.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
The_Liquid_Laser said:
It is, in fact, abnormal. The DS had the steepest drop off of any system ever. On top of that, even in that scenario it's remainder was 92.5% of that 27.11 year, while you are predicting an even lower 89.5% for the remainder of Switch's life. The only notable DS software for that time period was Pokemon Black/White, while Nintendo is still planning plenty of software for the Switch. And the DS had gotten a price cut, while Switch still hasn't gotten one and has a whole lot of room to drop the price. You are predicting the biggest cliff in history while all factors point to their being no cliff at all. |
The steepest drop off for a high selling console would definitely be the Wii, Switch won't come close to being that bad.
There were definitely steeper than the Wii among low selling consoles.
So no, I think you are exaggerating quite a bit there.
Of note, I don't think the Switch will receive a price cut, at least not on time to affect sales.
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