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Forums - Sales Discussion - New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe shipped 8.32m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe shipped 8.32m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 10 million 55 8.69%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 97 15.32%
 
11.0 - 12.9 million 153 24.17%
 
13.0 - 14.9 million 110 17.38%
 
15.0 - 16.9 million 127 20.06%
 
17.0 - 18.9 million 20 3.16%
 
19.0 - 20.9 million 22 3.48%
 
21.0 - 22.9 million 8 1.26%
 
23.0 - 25.0 million 8 1.26%
 
More than 25 million 33 5.21%
 
Total:633

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe, a release that contains both the original Wii U game and its expansion New Super Luigi U, is another surefire 10m+ seller in Nintendo's Switch portfolio, but how high can it go?

Here is its quarterly sales progression since its release in January 2019:

March 2019 - 3.31m/3.31m
June 2019 - 0.79m/4.10m
September 2019 - 0.49m/4.59m
December 2019 - 1.26m/5.85m
March 2020 - 0.75m/6.60m
June 2020 - 0.84m/7.44m
September 2020 - 0.88m/8.32m

...

Bonus question: Another Super Mario Bros. game is long overdue with the last game in the series releasing in 2012. Nintendo's longest stretch of depriving home console owners of new entries in the Super Mario Bros. series dates from 1990 (Super Mario World) to 2009 (New Super Mario Bros. Wii), so a 19-year-stretch without a new game in one of Nintendo's biggest IPs of all-time. Will we get a new Super Mario Bros. game on Switch or has Nintendo fallen back into their old habit of not recognizing the powerful appeal of 2D Mario?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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With NSMB U Deluxe and Mario Maker 2 already on Switch I'm not sure they will release another 2d mario. But whenever they do I hope to see a fresh take that isn't NSMB.



If a new 2D Mario game was right around the corner it legs could get cut off hard, but since I expect it'll be a while before that and U Deluxe is selling damn well as of late, I expect it to cross the 15 mil mark.

Bonus question: Oh, it will happen, the only question is whether it'll be "New" or new.

Last edited by UnderwaterFunktown - on 16 November 2020

I went with 11 to 12.9m because I do think Nintendo will release a new 2D Mario on the Switch and that it won't be part of the "New" series (maybe wishful thinking but I really want this to happen).



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Is this game good? I like 2D marios. Should I buy it?



I am a Nintendo fanatic.

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I voted 15 - 17m.  The game has serious legs.  I defintely think it will cross the 15m mark.  If I voted wrong, then it's because my guess was too low.

I don't think we are getting a truely new 2D Mario game on the Switch.  Instead we are getting stuff like Mario Maker 2 and Super Mario 35.  These are variations on the 2D Mario theme, but I don't think we are getting a full new entry in the traditional sense.  



I think it'll end up around 12 million. I'd expect a fresh 2D Mario game (saying fresh instead of "new" to avoid any confusion, as it clearly needs to be a fresh 2D series and not continue the now tired New series) either in 2021 or 2022. They've gotta be well into development of another 2D Mario game seeing as how this one was just a quick port and it was released nearly two years ago. Didn't realize the quarterly sales were as high as they are, but still the next 2D Mario game should cut off a lot of sales for this one. Though if the next 2D Mario doesn't drop until late in 2022 this one could see 13/14 million since it will continue to sell well until it is replaced by the next game.



Stellar_Fungk said:
Is this game good? I like 2D marios. Should I buy it?

If you like 2D Mario you'll probably like it. It doesn't bring many new ideas to the table but is still a solid enough game.

Personally I prefer Mario Maker 2, but that's of course a matter of taste.



I wish Mario Maker 2 wasn't treated like such a joke in the Nintendo community. That game really deserved Splatoon 2 levels of success. My favorite Switch game.

Edit: I voted on the 12.9 mil max option, but it might do a little more. Also, I think a new 2D Mario is now guaranteed for Switch 2. Won't release on Switch I think though. Still hoping for a new 2D Zelda, at least. 



AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I wish Mario Maker 2 wasn't treated like such a joke in the Nintendo community. That game really deserved Splatoon 2 levels of success. My favorite Switch game.

Yeah I thought Mario Maker 2 would be more popular than an old port of a 2D Mario series that feels very long in the tooth. I'm very surprised that Mario Maker 2 might not even hit 10 million. I don't get why it isn't more popular. Maybe less people are interested in making their own levels than I would have thought.