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Forums - Sales Discussion - New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe shipped 8.32m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?


New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe shipped 8.32m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 10 million 55 8.69%
10.0 - 10.9 million 97 15.32%
11.0 - 12.9 million 153 24.17%
13.0 - 14.9 million 110 17.38%
15.0 - 16.9 million 127 20.06%
17.0 - 18.9 million 20 3.16%
19.0 - 20.9 million 22 3.48%
21.0 - 22.9 million 8 1.26%
23.0 - 25.0 million 8 1.26%
More than 25 million 33 5.21%

All I know is that it'll reach +10M copies sold at some point. 15M sounds a bit too out of reach since the game won't increase the pacing at which it sells so imma guess around 12M as a fair assessment ^^

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It's a very good game that suffered from being on Wii U and being too safe. I 100%'d it.

Stellar_Fungk said:
Is this game good? I like 2D marios. Should I buy it?

Its fine.  Mario U is fun but Luigi U is the star of the package.  Some of the Luigi levels are pretty fun and tough later on.  I beat both on the Wii U when they came out and never went back to them.  One of the issues with the game besides the basic New Super Mario feel, is similar to Yoshi Crafted World where there are some beautiful creative levels, but a lot of rather plain filler levels.   If Super Mario Maker 2 didn't exist I think its worth it as a fun game, but Mario Maker 2 is flat out the better game.  In America I believe its on sale for $30 for Black Friday and I think that is a fair price for it.  If you can get it for a similar price in Sweden I say go for it. 

I'll say 13M and no; there won't be a new 2D Mario game.

My guess is around 12 million. I'll be picking it up during the black friday deals this year!


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12 million, the legs have far exceeded my expectations

I see many people in here saying ~12m. I wish I had this level of optimism that the next Super Mario Bros. game is just around the corner and will release during 2021.

NSMBU Deluxe is on pace to hit 10m or close to it by the end of 2020, selling ~4m this year alone. In order to finish at ~12m lifetime, it would take something to really cripple its legs real soon, because otherwise the ~12m are in the bag by the end of 2021.

I don't expect Nintendo to make a new Super Mario Bros. game for Switch, because they already let the opportunity of the 35th anniversary pass and before they were more interested in making a sequel to the level editor Super Mario Maker from 2015 than a series that was more in need of a new game. LTD sales progression for NSMBU Deluxe:

End of 2020: 5.85m
End of 2021: ~10m
End of 2022: ~13m
End of 2023: ~15.5m
End of 2024: ~17m
End of 2025: ~18m
End of 2026: ~18.5m
End of life: 19m+

So I picked the 19.0-20.9m option.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 16 November 2020

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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NSMB will hit 20m imo unless a ground up 2D Mario game is released.

+11M for sure, it's got legs but not as crazy as other Nintendo games.Give me another NSMB or at least port over the DS&3DS versions.

I'm guessing it'll be higher than 20 million, but not much more than that. So I went with the 19-20.9 million option.

Bonus Question:
Not on the Switch we will. Nintendo seems very content with just letting the Wii U Mario ports constantly sell well and rake in the easy millions they bring in. That's why we're not going to see Mario Kart 9 until Switch 2. We might still get a new 3D Mario game. But with 3D World Deluxe right around the corner, along with the 3D All Stars collection, I've gone from "likely" to "doubtful." Just like I think they're content with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and New Mario U constantly selling, I think they'll be just as content to let 3D World do the same thing and let that game keep selling along with 3D All Stars (until the end of March anyways) and Odyssey.

The Switch is still going to get a plethora of new games, big and small, most of which I think will be 3rd party. But as far as Mario is concerned, B-C tier spinoffs like another Mario Party, Mario Golf, Mario Sports Mix, or another Mario RPG (Whether it's a new Paper Mario, Mario & Luigi, something new, etc.) is all we're going to get. I think the big, blockbuster, A-S tier stuff like Mario Kart and the platformers are being saved for Switch 2. I fully expect Mario Kart 9 to be a launch title and the next 3D Mario game within the first year of its cycle. Once Switch 2 or whatever their next system is comes around, THEN I think we might see a brand new 2D Mario game... Assuming they haven't just replaced the 2D line with Mario Maker.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 16 November 2020