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I voted 15 - 17m.  The game has serious legs.  I defintely think it will cross the 15m mark.  If I voted wrong, then it's because my guess was too low.

I don't think we are getting a truely new 2D Mario game on the Switch.  Instead we are getting stuff like Mario Maker 2 and Super Mario 35.  These are variations on the 2D Mario theme, but I don't think we are getting a full new entry in the traditional sense.