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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results Prediction Thread

 

Super Mario 3D All-Stars initial shipment + digital

under 3M 0 0%
 
3 to 4M 2 6.25%
 
4 to 5M 4 12.50%
 
5 to 6M 23 71.88%
 
10+ Million, itsa mee, Mario 3 9.38%
 
Total:32

Hardware:

6.1M in this past quarter/67.5M total sales

Software (each in total LtD sales):

MK8D: 27.9M
AC:NH: 26.7M
SSBU: 21.2M
BotW: 19.2M
Pokemon SwoSh: 18.5M
SMO: 18.4M
PLG: 12.4M
SMP: 11.3M
Splatoon 2: 11.1M
NSMBUD: 7.7M
LM3: 6.9M
SMM2: 5.8M
SM3DA: 5.2M
Link's Awakening: 4.7M
RFA: 4.5M

And a million+ Karts sold to drive through living rooms



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Official Results

Hardware: 6.85M

Software: 49.82M

Top 5 Software: 

  1. Super Mario 3D Collection: 5.21M
  2. New Horizon: 3.64M
  3. Paper Mario: 2.82M
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 2.24M
  5. Ring Fit Adventure: 1.94M 


UnderwaterFunktown said:

Hardware: 66.8 mil

Software: 455 mil

Team Evergreen:
MK8DX - 28.2 mil
AC:NH - 25.2 mil
SSBU - 21 mil
BotW - 19.7 mil
Sw/Sh - 18.9 mil
SMO - 18.7 mil
Ring Fit - 5.6 mil


Debuts:
3D All-Stars - 6.4 mil
Paper Mario - 3.1 mil

So I overshot a bit of 3D All-Stars, but other than that the predictions that were off by much were due to being too low.

Hardware went wild and MK8 and AC performed much better than I had expected. Pretty happy with how accurate the rest was.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Actual results bolded

Hardware:

6.1M in this past quarter/67.5M total sales 68.30M

Software (each in total LtD sales):

MK8D: 27.9M 28.99M
AC:NH: 26.7M 26.04M
SSBU: 21.2M 21.10M
BotW: 19.2M 19.74M
Pokemon SwoSh: 18.5M 19.02M
SMO: 18.4M 18.99M
PLG: 12.4M 12.49M
SMP: 11.3M 12.10M
Splatoon 2: 11.1M 11.27M
NSMBUD: 7.7M 8.32M
LM3: 6.9M 7.68M
SMM2: 5.8M
SM3DA: 5.2M 5.21M
Link's Awakening: 4.7M
RFA: 4.5M 5.84M

And a million+ Karts sold to drive through living rooms

Lowballed quite a bit except AC:NH, which I expected to do a bit better tbh. Just SM3DA was really on point.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 05 November 2020

I picked 4-5M, not too far off from 5.21M and the game slightly exceeded my expectation.



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mk7sx said:
For the quarter:

[NSW] 6,800K

[SM3DAS] 8,000K
[PMTOK] 3,000K

[ACNH] 6,000K
[MK8D] 2,000K
[RFA] 2,000K
[BOTW] 1,200K
[SSBU] 1,100K

Actuals:

[NSW] 6,850K

[SM3DAS] 5,210K
[PMTOK] 2,820K

[ACNH] 3,640K
[MK8D] 2,250K
[RFA] 1,940K
[BOTW] 1,140K
[SSBU] 1,110K

HW almost on point.  Evergreens not too far off (high on everything except for MK8D).  ACNH way overpredicted.  Paper Mario close enough.  Mario 3D All Stars way overpredicted.



the Switch had the best Q3 since the NDS in 09 according to NPD



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 said:
the Switch had the best Q3 since the NDS in 09 according to NPD

No NPD thread yet or did I miss it?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
kirby007 said:
the Switch had the best Q3 since the NDS in 09 according to NPD

No NPD thread yet or did I miss it?

not on vgc afaik i saw this tidbit on resetera



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
kirby007 said:
the Switch had the best Q3 since the NDS in 09 according to NPD

No NPD thread yet or did I miss it?

NPD October release is tomorrow morning, 9:00 AM ET.

This was just a tidbit from NPD regarding last quarter (Jul-Sep) that came out this week.  Technically we knew this information already since we received NSW numbers for all three months, they just didn't remark on it until now.  I see that you found the thread!