Forums - Sales Discussion - I explain why the Nintendo Switch and Nintendo consoles in general will always exceed the sales of PlayStation in general

Ryng said:

PS4 realistically will stop at 125 million,

Yeah, okay.

Edit: going through the rest of your post. What I mean by 'slow start' is that it'll take a long time for the sales to really pick up. I think it won't be doing great numbers in 2021 and maybe not 2022 either. Pre-orders don't matter, if we're going by launch sales then by all means the Wii U should have been a success. How many people flock to the console at launch is irrelevant, I don't think the PS5 will hit the ground running with general audiences.

Personally, I'd say the Switch will stop at 125 million, 130 at best. Exactly what you think the PS4 will do.

Last edited by mZuzek - on 15 October 2020

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wohufana said:
Manlytears said:

why the @$#$3% some people here are comparing PS4 vs Switch? The generations for "the big three" are:

Dreamcast vs PS2 Vs Game cube Vs xbox > Ps2 won.
Ps3 vs Wii vs X360 > Wii won.
Ps4 Vs WiiU vs X1 > PS4 won.

You guys need to stop acting like wii U is "inexistent"... just adimit, Ps4 won the generation.

It's funny when Playstation diehards like you used to consider Switch as 8th Gen (some even ridiculed it belonging to 7th Gen) because it was "UNDERPOWERED". And now that the Switch is on track to beat PS4 on the finish line, you now regard the Switch being in the 9th Gen so that PS4 will safely secure the 8th Gen Championship Belt

Hahaha, yes I remember those times. Since this is a sales site, I think we can compare their sales no matter the Gen.



Bandorr said:
Manlytears said:

why the @$#$3% some people here are comparing PS4 vs Switch? The generations for "the big three" are:

Dreamcast vs PS2 Vs Game cube Vs xbox > Ps2 won.
Ps3 vs Wii vs X360 > Wii won.
Ps4 Vs WiiU vs X1 > PS4 won.

You guys need to stop acting like wii U is "inexistent"... just adimit, Ps4 won the generation.

The switch is quite impressive. Gen 1, 7, 8, 9 - it can do it all.  It's power level is around 7(slightly more?)

It released around 8. But because the wii U bombed it is 9. Oh and its the first "real" handheld and console so gen 1.

But I never considered that people are arguing the switch is "beating" the ps4 but also possibly arguing it is gen 9. 

Switch is quite a bit more powerful than 7th gen machines. Wii U was as well and Switch docked is about double Wii U.

As for gens. It's not 7th gen. Not 8th gen. Not 9th gen. It belongs in its own category in that regard. It was still be compared to PS4 in sales in the general sense. Not head to head as equal hardware



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
Switch will finish in the 110 million range going by how Nintendo systems usually go out with a whimper in software support and Sony systems go out with a boom. PS4 probably finished close to 130 maybe a little more.

Wii made a bit over 100 million, Switch on its 43rd month is barely 4.5 million behind Wii on the same period, but Switch in one Christmas season behind and it's pretty much confirmed to surpass Wii total cumulative monthly by at least 10 million units this December

This was Wii sales pattern after its 3rd year:

2008: 25.95 (peak)
2009: 20.53 (-21%)
2010: 15.58 (-24%)
2011: 9.84 (-37%)
2012: 3.98 (-59%)
2013 onward: 1.79 (-55%)

Using a (very) conservative 30.5 million estimate for Switch:

2020: 30.5 (peak)
2021: 24.1
2022: 18.3
2023: 11.5
2024: 4.7 / new system release?
2025 onward: 2.1
Total lifetime: 138 million

So if Switch perform like Wii, 130 million is the bare minium lifetime sales for Switch. The system has a really good shot for 150 million, 2021 line up so far looks better than 2020, system support won't stop anytime soon

To get only 110 million Switch will need to crash and burn, like decreasing 50% YOY in 2021, 2022 and then again in 2023 a sharp 87.5% decline in mere 3 years from the system peak. Not realistic



IcaroRibeiro said:
Leynos said:
Switch will finish in the 110 million range going by how Nintendo systems usually go out with a whimper in software support and Sony systems go out with a boom. PS4 probably finished close to 130 maybe a little more.

Wii made a bit over 100 million, Switch on its 43rd month is barely 4.5 million behind Wii on the same period, but Switch in one Christmas season behind and it's pretty much confirmed to surpass Wii total cumulative monthly by at least 10 million units this December

This was Wii sales pattern after its 3rd year:

2008: 25.95 (peak)
2009: 20.53 (-21%)
2010: 15.58 (-24%)
2011: 9.84 (-37%)
2012: 3.98 (-59%)
2013 onward: 1.79 (-55%)

Using a (very) conservative 30.5 million estimate for Switch:

2020: 30.5 (peak)
2021: 24.1
2022: 18.3
2023: 11.5
2024: 4.7 / new system release?
2025 onward: 2.1
Total lifetime: 138 million

So if Switch perform like Wii, 130 million is the bare minium lifetime sales for Switch. The system has a really good shot for 150 million, 2021 line up so far looks better than 2020, system support won't stop anytime soon

To get only 110 million Switch will need to crash and burn, like decreasing 50% YOY in 2021, 2022 and then again in 2023 a sharp 87.5% decline in mere 3 years from the system peak. Not realistic

Amazing seeing those sales numbers that people think Wii, "dropped off a cliff" when it actually, gradually declined by around 5 million units or so each year after the peak year.



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IcaroRibeiro said:

The system has a really good shot for 150 million, 2021 line up so far looks better than 2020

I find it funny when people say this, given the extreme lack of information on 2021 games. There's basically nothing announced for release next year in terms of first-parties, and not much for third-parties either.

Obviously there will be plenty of announcements, maybe some TBD games will make it, but saying that the lineup looks good is just baseless speculation at this point.



mZuzek said:
Ryng said:

PS4 realistically will stop at 125 million,

Yeah, okay.

Edit: going through the rest of your post. What I mean by 'slow start' is that it'll take a long time for the sales to really pick up. I think it won't be doing great numbers in 2021 and maybe not 2022 either. Pre-orders don't matter, if we're going by launch sales then by all means the Wii U should have been a success. How many people flock to the console at launch is irrelevant, I don't think the PS5 will hit the ground running with general audiences.

Personally, I'd say the Switch will stop at 125 million, 130 at best. Exactly what you think the PS4 will do.

You are not seriusly comparing Wii U pre orders to PS5. No, Wii U pre orders were nothing special, outside of being "sold out" in some stores, which doesn't mean a shit.

PS5 is confirmed to have bigger pre orders than PS4 which was sold out everywhere, you see the difference there? 2021 may be better or lower than PS4 2014, not gonna bet on that but it's definitively gonna be close, PS4 sold 14 million in 2014 and if PS5 sells a bit less than that i would not call this a low start.

The COVID boost is still a thing and will continue in 2021, you must keep that in mind.

What i really find funny about your post is that you didn't even replied to a single point of what i said for Switch, literally just "i think it'll sell 125/130 max". I would be ok with your opinion if you at least arugue, if you look at my post you can see why 125/130 million for Switch is unrealistic, and it doesn't matter how big this number looks to you or to anyone, there's nothing that suggest Switch to sell less than that, but there are a lot of reasons to think Switch will become the biggest console of all time, let alone beat PS4.

While your only argument is "we can't know what's gonna happen with Switch because is the first console like this".



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

There is so much wisdom in this thread that my brain has swollen and is now pressing against my cranium. Vgchartz delivers and educates, always.



it is true that Nintendo Consoles do sell alot but Ps2 remains the best selling Console of all time, as for Switch it should sell more than 120M LT (if not more) seeing the way things are going.

Nintendo produces great systems with outstanding SW & their brand like PlayStation is huge so it is no surprise they sometimes outsell PlayStation & others don´t.



Mummelmann said:
There is so much wisdom in this thread that my brain has swollen and is now pressing against my cranium. Vgchartz delivers and educates, always.

We're long overdue for a return of JohnLucas and his novels about Nintendo supremacy.



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