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Forums - Politics Discussion - Paula Jean Swearengin fights for turning a senate seat blue

I wanted to point a light towards the campaign of Paula Jean Swearengin, who is democratic candidate for senate in West Virginia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtkdixtwm4Y

It is pretty hard to see how this race is shaping up, as there is literally no polling of this race. 538 has as latest senate polling for the state the 2018 race between Manchin and Morrisey: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/west-virginia/

So no idea how this race will might go.



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Sadly, all pollsters put the state's senate seat as "safe Republican", so I fear her chances are very slim. That's probably also the reason why there are no polls there.

Thus, if she would win, it would be an ever bigger upset than what AOC managed to do. And a killing blow to a Republican senate majority anytime soon in the process.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 30 September 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Sadly, all pollsters put the state's senate seat as "safe Republican", so I fear her chances are very slim. That's probably also the reason why there are no polls there.

Thus, if she would win, it would be an ever bigger upset than what AOC managed to do. And a killing blow to a Republican senate majority anytime soon in the process.

Yeah, it is considered a republican seat, but based on what? No polling was done, with Joe Manchin the state has also a democratic senator, Capitos senate seat was democratic before. There is no indication, why this race should be considered save for Capito. With at least some polls we would have an indication, but it isn't there.



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While it's hard to say how the West Virginia Senate race will turn out, here in South Carolina Lindsey Graham's seat is looking like it's up for grabs. Graham's popularity has dropped, and most polls have shown the race between him and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison have narrowed to the point where it's a dead heat. This is the first time in a long time a Senate race in SC has been a toss-up rather than a safe bet for a GOP candidate. If Harrison is elected, he will be the first Democratic Senator from South Carolina since Fritz Hollings, who retired in 2004.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 30 September 2020

Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Sadly, all pollsters put the state's senate seat as "safe Republican", so I fear her chances are very slim. That's probably also the reason why there are no polls there.

Thus, if she would win, it would be an ever bigger upset than what AOC managed to do. And a killing blow to a Republican senate majority anytime soon in the process.

Yeah, it is considered a republican seat, but based on what? No polling was done, with Joe Manchin the state has also a democratic senator, Capitos senate seat was democratic before. There is no indication, why this race should be considered save for Capito. With at least some polls we would have an indication, but it isn't there.

Probably based on the fact that in 2014, the democratic nominee didn't win even a single county, with Shelley winning the election with over 62% of the votes and getting over 50% in each and every county.

So yeah, that's a very uphill battle for her to win out here. But considering what she stands for, I can only wish her all the best.



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If there are no polls, that generally means that they don't think it's worth polling. That's why we see very few presidential polls in NY or California. So... she probably doesn't have a chance.



I knew I saw her before. She was one of the 4 in Knocking Down The House, where she tried to become Senator in 2018, but sadly only got 30% of the votes in her primary. I hope she will do better this time around.



Hoping for the best for Swearengin, but not hopeful considering the some of the Republican candidates that have been getting in like Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Laura Loomer, and Lauren Boebert.

I'm focused on my own Senate race. I'm hoping Mark Kelly will send Martha McParticipation Trophy home for good. Kyrsten Sinema pulled out a decent enough win against her the last time, I suppose.



I really want Paula Jean Swearengin to win, and hopefully turnout for WV could be huge.

https://sos.wv.gov/elections/Pages/HistVoteTurnout.aspx

Look at these turnout history for West Virginia. The lowest turnout was in 2014 when 20 percent voted in the primary and 37.8 percent voted in the general election.

I read from an article from a while ago that registered Democrats and Republicans arent that far apart with the rest of voters being Independent. This was enforced later when I got an email from her campaign talking about the percentage of people registered as Democrats or Republicans. If Democrats turnout is big and get some Independents to vote for Paula there might be a chance she can win the senate.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mnementh said:

Yeah, it is considered a republican seat, but based on what? No polling was done, with Joe Manchin the state has also a democratic senator, Capitos senate seat was democratic before. There is no indication, why this race should be considered save for Capito. With at least some polls we would have an indication, but it isn't there.

Probably based on the fact that in 2014, the democratic nominee didn't win even a single county, with Shelley winning the election with over 62% of the votes and getting over 50% in each and every county.

So yeah, that's a very uphill battle for her to win out here. But considering what she stands for, I can only wish her all the best.

Maybe my post above can show you why she might have a shot of winning the Senate race.



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