Microsoft is def more pro consumer, but Sony is still going to sell more systems. And Nintendo is going to beat them both combined.
| drinkandswim said: Microsoft has clearly been moving away from Console Exclusivity. Which is why their games will be available on phones and are available on PC day one of release. I mean maybe you think they need to be part of the console war to be successful. It just isnt true. Software sales is where most of the money is made, not console sales. And the market is only headed further in that direction. Microsoft was one of the first heavy supporters of cross platform play.
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MS still wants gamers to use their platform over another platform. Whether it's consoles, PC, Windows store, Xcloud, gamepass. Putting games on Playstation isn't going to help them grow their ecosystem. Using gamepass on their phone is still on the xbox ecosystem.
Consoles sales are not profitable, but the software is. Phil Spencer has already stated they plan on making many more consoles in the future. He has stated, cloud gaming is still not close to play games from dedicated hardware.
You say Xbox can't win a console war, but that doesn't mean they can't be profitable. They were profitable with the Xbox one, why wouldn't they be with the Series S/X, especially with how much better things are going for them now. They have the largest number of 1st party studios between any other console now. They have the cheapest next-gen console and the most powerful. This seems like a good recipe to be successful this gen. I'm not saying they will sell more than ps5, but they will certain take a chunk of potential sales, especially with future Bethesda games being exclusive to the Xbox ecosystem.
Xbox isn't tight on money. recouping money back as quickly as possibly isn't their end goal.
I'm with you and many others on the comeback by MS and the following competition between them and Sony.
That being said, I don't think MS is playing in the same league. They seem to be looking at the bigger picture - the really really big one!
It seems like if Gamepass continues to grow, Sony might be forced to follow. We have already seen them back away from "We believe in generations". These two philosophies don't co-exist - or rather I cant see how they do.
This is ultimately the Netflix of gaming, and while Netflix is great for what it is, I would hate to see all the major publishers go this route.
People seem to think the Zenimax purchase is somehow related to Xbox Series X and an ensuing fight with Sony. I really don't think MS is thinking along those lines, or we would have seen some sort of Elder Scrolls Next Gen reveal with a "Exclusive to Xbox" statement. I think this is really about strengthening and consolidating MS's gaming IP and ensuring that their offering is up there with all the other essential gaming IP such as gaming IP from Nintendo, Sony, Activision/Blizzard, EA, etc. Perhaps if Halo, Fable, Gears, Forza and other newer IP's were established by MS over the last gen this purchase might not have been needed.
Not only does MS own the WRPG genre, they basically own the FPS genre as well. Sony "We have Killzone and resistance" Xbox: "Well we own.. Halo, Quake, Rage, Wolfenstein, Prey, Dishonest, Perfect Dark, Fallout and the grand daddy Doom" Only Valve have FPS's that could compete with that lineup.
Microsoft have a lot of power however i don't believe they will lock them into just the Xbox eco-system. Xbox and PC would be the bare minimal however i cannot see them holding these games off Switch and PS5. Sony's success is also Microsoft's success.
VAMatt said:
I think you're kind of making the point. Maybe Sony hasn't gotten sloppy exactly. But, they don't seem to be trying anything new. Cranking out good games is very important. Generally speaking, it's probably the most important thing for a publisher, especially the console marketer, to do. But, that's something that can easily be copied. Microsoft is definitely trying to do that same thing. We don't know for sure if they're going to succeed, but they're definitely trying. On the other hand, Microsoft has come up with a new distribution model and is trying a tiered console strategy. Either or both of these things may not work out for microsoft. But, they're trying. That's innovation that moves the industry forward. Whether Microsoft succeeds in launching a bunch of good exclusive games over the next couple years or not, somebody will eventually get on a hot streak with games, and Sony will at some point hit a cold streak. When that happens, if Sony doesn't have any other feathers in their cap they're going to take a beating in the marketplace. As gamers, we all want good games. Sony has definitely been delivering that. That's great. I buy most of the Sony first party AAA games. I want them to keep doing that. But, Microsoft is getting money from me every month for a Gamepass subscription. I appreciate this new distribution model, as it encourages me to play games that I otherwise might not have. If Sony will respond to the Gamepass threat, or otherwise do something new and different, that may result in another awesome thing for me to benefit from. As for the tiered console strategy, I'm not sure that it's going to benefit me directly, at least in the short term. But, opening up the ecosystem to people that are unwilling or unable to spend for the top tier systems strikes me as beneficial all around. I think gaming is a great hobby. I want every human that is interested in doing so to be able to play great games. This is the first time that I've seen a console manufacturer start the generation with an option that puts the system in reach of more people. So I think that's just a generally good development in gaming. But, let's say it results in an additional 10 million or 20 million people owning consoles over the next several years. That's a direct benefit to all of us that play games. That just makes the industry pie that much bigger, leaving room for more developers and publishers, more resources for more innovation, and just otherwise helps propel the industry forward. Anyway, I don't want to cheerlead for Microsoft too much. I just appreciate what they're doing. I want to see Sony do cool stuff too. To tie it all back in to the OP, I'll just say that buying Bethesda is a huge competitive move by Microsoft. Maybe it will help to wake Sony up. Microsoft this week is in a much better position to compete with Sony's strategy of cranking out hits. The sooner that Sony realizes that they have to do other things, in addition to cranking out hits, the better for all of us. This move can only help in that regard. |
I personally feel that the two approaches are fundamentally different though, and may have direct consequences on game quality.
For me, it seems like Microsoft has adopted the Gamepass model somewhat because of their relatively lackluster first party offering and not to mention its quite exec friendly. Any company will take subscription revenue over once off revenue. One is guaranteed and monthly the other can heavily fluctuate based on release dates and game quality.
That being said, I think we are yet to see how MS manages to do it. There certainly needs to be a balance between the number of studios they are funding and the monthly rate. I think we are in for a really good next 2 to 3 years from gamepass. But once it expands beyond that with an increased appetite for new games they might struggle to continue to push out true AAA games.
On the other hand Sony seems intent on continuing the old school model. But can they really maintain that if MS's strategy picks up momentum? I highly doubt it. We might see Sony be forced to follow suite.
I really hope both companies manage to find a good balance between quality and quantity of games. It seem quite likely that all major publishers will follow this strategy.
I never said they cant be profitable. I actually think Microsoft can be more profitable if they focus 100% on Software and not keep anything confined to the Xbox Ecosystem. I dont think that is what will happen this upcoming Gen. but i dont see them making Doom or Fallout Xbox Ecosystem exclusive. I mean thats just my opinion. If they do thats fine then im wrong. I just think Microsoft wants to maximize profits. I dont believe locking it to Microsoft ecosystem ( which is rather large as it is and doesnt require a microsoft console) is the route they are going.
I have an Xbox One but I recently built a PC. I have Game Pass on PC so im thrilled with the IP expansion. Im also happy EA-Play is coming to Gamepass. I do expect this subscription price is going to rise at some point with the cost of all these additions.
I really dont think Microsoft is going to do well with Consoles. I just dont. I see the system as aimed toward a hardcore gaming audience. A hardcore gaming audience will need more than 800 gb of disk drive space. Add $200 for an expansion and you are priced pretty close to a decent gaming PC. You also removed any reason with any gamer with a decent PC to need an Xbox. There is nothing wrong with this model it still makes Microsoft money, but console sales are obviously not the focus and i expect will do worse than the Xbox One. Unless there are enough games limited to the console itself.
| drinkandswim said: I never said they cant be profitable. I actually think Microsoft can be more profitable if they focus 100% on Software and not keep anything confined to the Xbox Ecosystem. I dont think that is what will happen this upcoming Gen. but i dont see them making Doom or Fallout Xbox Ecosystem exclusive. I mean thats just my opinion. If they do thats fine then im wrong. I just think Microsoft wants to maximize profits. I dont believe locking it to Microsoft ecosystem ( which is rather large as it is and doesnt require a microsoft console) is the route they are going.
I really dont think Microsoft is going to do well with Consoles. I just dont. I see the system as aimed toward a hardcore gaming audience. A hardcore gaming audience will need more than 800 gb of disk drive space. Add $200 for an expansion and you are priced pretty close to a decent gaming PC. You also removed any reason with any gamer with a decent PC to need an Xbox. There is nothing wrong with this model it still makes Microsoft money, but console sales are obviously not the focus and i expect will do worse than the Xbox One. Unless there are enough games limited to the console itself. |
I disagree. Things are going much better than with the Xbox One. The majority of gamers are excited about the Series X/S, and with the huge investment in 1st party games, you know the part gamers criticize Xbox for, I've seen a lot more excitement for the new Xbox. I don't see how they could do worse than the Xbox one. Xbox now has; The cheapest console price, investment in 1st party, most powerful hardware, better 3rd party support, best BC support, and Gamepass.
Sure, they are releasing their games on PC/Xbox, but it's not suddenly going to cause all these console gamers to jump over to PC. You're speaking too much as a PC master race gamer, and not looking at it as your average console gamer. Not everyone has this beefed up PC that can play Xbox games at the same specs as the Series X. I've actually seen PC gamers saying they are getting a Series X because it has the same benefit as a monster PC, but without the hassle.
you can just use an external HDD, like myself, and transfer games back and forth. The external SSD isn't necessary to have.
I see the Series X/S selling more than the Xbox One. Ps5 will still outsell it, but Xbox will close the gap. My estimate is Ps5 90-100 Million, Series S/X 75-85 million. Then looking into gen 10, Xbox's 1st party will be firing on all cylinders, and should close the gap even more.
We shall see. I predict 35 million console sales for Microsoft. 75 million PS5. Switch (if they come out with the Pro model and cut prices) will surpass PS2 in lifetime sales, assuming they dont completely split the base with a Switch 2.
But I just want to make it clear its not because I have a PC. I also own Xbox One and Nintendo Switch, and the only reason I dont own a PS4 is because I have two kids and limited time to play all those games lol. I play my Switch more than I play my PC.
The reason I expect a decline for Microsoft is because you dont have to own their system to play their games. Cloud gaming is on the horizon too. I dont think their overall gaming profits will decline. I think they will increase. I think console sales are going to decline. With the exception of handheld gaming. Because I think handheld gaming will see an increase. Most people already play games on their phones. Switch is cheaper than the average phone these days. I think Switch Lite price will drop to $150, and households with kids will have multiple Switch’s. I will probably have 3-4 in my household. I have two kids. My son plays Switch. Im planning on getting a Pro if it makes sense. Im sure in a few years my daughter will want to play.
| drinkandswim said: We shall see. I predict 35 million console sales for Microsoft. 75 million PS5. Switch (if they come out with the Pro model and cut prices) will surpass PS2 in lifetime sales, assuming they dont completely split the base with a Switch 2. |
I'm not sure how you predict both consoles go backwards in sales when there is zero indication of this happening. Xbox has a next-gen console at $299 and Sony has their cheapest at $399. Switch will continue to sell great, but it's not going to take away sales from these consoles like how you think it will. The Switch still doesn't get the 3rd party support Playstation and Xbox have. The Switch is more of a complementary console with other systems.
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