The amount of FIFA licence fee is premised on the total market size, which would be lost by cutting off Playstation market.
Even if MS was willing to pay ongoing "tax" to FIFA for purposes of cutting of Playstation, it's not clear that FIFA would go along with it,
Since it's in their interests to maximally promote their brand, they don't want to see the franchise restricted from largest part of consoles.
Consider how consoles are vast majority of FIFA market, and Playstation is vast majorituy of that console market, this doesn't make sense.
And if MS tried it, it would be easy deal for Sony to buy the licence from FIFA when it next comes available, in the mean time developing
the basis of game to implement that, with deal for Konami's PES perhaps being most plausible route for that.
I mean, this is reflected in MS' own words about "reaching larger communities", yet discussion keeps ignoring that and financial aspects,
to focus on simplistic console war mentality that only thinks in terms of total exclusivity. It's not clear why this is about consoles as such,
when it's impact on PC gaming is more clear: Why wouldn't MS favor their own game store infrastructure? That doesn't cut off customers
since anybody can access all PC gaming stores, although it would then feed into their offer with Game Pass there which is very credible.