By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Old Analyst Prediction table for the 7th Generation. PS3/360/NRV (Wii)

curl-6 said:

Reminds me of when Gamespot ran an article that Wii would win the 7th Gen sales race as an April Fools joke in 2006:

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/april-fools-analyst-revolution-will-take-lead-in-2010/1100-6146958/

That's how convinced the gaming media was that Nintendo would lose, that just the possibility of them winning was considered joke material

Looks like that guy pranked himself.

PAOerfulone said:

I really get a kick out of seeing these old predictions and how off the market they were. Especially the Nintendoom analysts. (Pachter)

The funny thing is, this is almost exactly how the PS4/Xbox One/Wii U race panned out. 

Their basic (faulty) assumption is that the coming generation 7 would be a lot like Generation 6 but with XBox doing a little better.  People still make this terrible assumption today.  The automatic assumption is that the PS5 will do well simply because the PS4 did well.

I kind of think all of these analysts are overpaid, because it doesn't take much skill to predict that the near future will be similar to the recent past.  If they had seriously studied video game history, then they would know that sales performance is often quite different from one generation to the next.  Here is a quick breakdown of expectations right before the next iteration of systems was released:

1982 (before the crash) - Atari 5200 is going to be the successful successor to the Atari 2600. (nope)
1985 (before Gen 3 in NA) - Consoles were a fad and now all gamers have permanently switched to computers. (nope)
Late 80's (before Gen 4) - Nintendo is the favorite, but they need to watch electronics giant NEC as a serious threat.  (half right, SNES ended up on top, but Genesis was the real threat and not NEC.)

Mid 90's (before Gen 5) - Nintendo is the favorite, but the need to watch electronics giant Sony.  (half right, Playstation was a threat and it clobbered N64)
Late 90's (before Gen 6) - PS2 will have the easy win.  (Ding!  Expectations were actually right for the first time.)
Mid 2000's (before Gen 7) - PS3 is the favorite, but they need to watch tech giant Microsoft.  Nintendo will go third party soon. (heh, nope.  They were right about Microsoft being a threat, but dead wrong about everything else.)   

Early 2010's (before Gen 8) - Should be a close 3 way race.  (nope.)
Late 2016 (before the Switch) - Will be lucky if it does as well as the 3DS.  (heh, nope.)

Basically, the common wisdom is that the next generation wll always be like the current state of the market, although a large player entering the market can change things.  In making these assumptions, the analysis is usually wrong.  And yet analysts make these assumptions every single time.  This is why I am laughing to myself about everyone expecting the PS5 to do great.  It probably won't.  People are just seeing that the PS4 did well and so assume the PS5 will do well.  If history is any indication, the safe bet is against the PS5.



Around the Network

Its actually nearly spot on (for the next generation)
Ps4, Xbox one, Wii U, Wii U slightly under though



That generation over performed haha



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Basically, the common wisdom is that the next generation wll always be like the current state of the market, although a large player entering the market can change things.  In making these assumptions, the analysis is usually wrong.  And yet analysts make these assumptions every single time.  This is why I am laughing to myself about everyone expecting the PS5 to do great.  It probably won't.  People are just seeing that the PS4 did well and so assume the PS5 will do well.  If history is any indication, the safe bet is against the PS5.

The difference is the gen 7 predictions were made before Sony screwed up while now there isn't really any opportunity left for them to screw up and that combined with the PS5 getting positive reception and more attention than the Series X/S is strong evidence I think for gen 9 to be similar but with the PS5 maybe doing somewhat worse and the Series X/S somewhat better since Microsoft isn't screwing up nearly as hard this time. 



GProgrammer said:
Its actually nearly spot on (for the next generation)
Ps4, Xbox one, Wii U, Wii U slightly under though

He wasn't predicting Gen 8 though, he was predicting Gen 7, so with Nintendo alone he was wrong to the tune of over 80 million.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network

What analysts generally do is just analyze the patterns, and assume that what happened previously will happen again. They are very bad at actually seeing the impact of disruptive technology or general market changes. If they actually were good at that, they'd have so much money from their investments, that they wouldn't have to be analysts, and would just be swimming in their pool of coins like scrooge mcduck.



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Basically, the common wisdom is that the next generation wll always be like the current state of the market, although a large player entering the market can change things.  In making these assumptions, the analysis is usually wrong.  And yet analysts make these assumptions every single time.  This is why I am laughing to myself about everyone expecting the PS5 to do great.  It probably won't.  People are just seeing that the PS4 did well and so assume the PS5 will do well.  If history is any indication, the safe bet is against the PS5.

The difference is the gen 7 predictions were made before Sony screwed up while now there isn't really any opportunity left for them to screw up and that combined with the PS5 getting positive reception and more attention than the Series X/S is strong evidence I think for gen 9 to be similar but with the PS5 maybe doing somewhat worse and the Series X/S somewhat better since Microsoft isn't screwing up nearly as hard this time. 

The analysts weren't just wrong about Generation 7.  The analysts are almost always wrong.  

Also your post seems to assume that Sony is supposed to win unless they screw up.  Sony isn't supposed to win.  Neither are Nintendo or Microsoft.  The winner has to actually earn it every single generation.  Past success does not determine future success.  Once the new system get released, then the company starts over at zero.  They can't rest on their laurels.  They have to actually offer new games and a good value on hardware, etc....  If the competition does a better job, then that company loses, even if that company is named "Sony".

Anyone who assumes Sony is supposed to win is making the same mistake as the analysts.  The success of the PS4 won't really help the PS5.  They still have to do the hard work of competing all over again.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

The difference is the gen 7 predictions were made before Sony screwed up while now there isn't really any opportunity left for them to screw up and that combined with the PS5 getting positive reception and more attention than the Series X/S is strong evidence I think for gen 9 to be similar but with the PS5 maybe doing somewhat worse and the Series X/S somewhat better since Microsoft isn't screwing up nearly as hard this time. 

The analysts weren't just wrong about Generation 7.  The analysts are almost always wrong.  

Also your post seems to assume that Sony is supposed to win unless they screw up.  Sony isn't supposed to win.  Neither are Nintendo or Microsoft.  The winner has to actually earn it every single generation.  Past success does not determine future success.  Once the new system get released, then the company starts over at zero.  They can't rest on their laurels.  They have to actually offer new games and a good value on hardware, etc....  If the competition does a better job, then that company loses, even if that company is named "Sony".

Anyone who assumes Sony is supposed to win is making the same mistake as the analysts.  The success of the PS4 won't really help the PS5.  They still have to do the hard work of competing all over again.

It does contain that assumption but I think it's a fair one due to how consistently strong the brand is. Even their worst selling home console is still the 7th best selling system of all time with their other three all being in the top 5 with the PS2 taking the number 1 spot. It's like how iPhones will always be big sellers due to how strong that brand is. You're right they need to do the hark work of competing again and so far they've done a good job at that I think. However the surprise acquisition of Bethesda by Microsoft definitely shakes things up and if Microsoft continues being willing to invest so heavily into this then I could for sure see the PS5 doing considerably worse than the PS4. 



curl-6 said:

Reminds me of when Gamespot ran an article that Wii would win the 7th Gen sales race as an April Fools joke in 2006:

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/april-fools-analyst-revolution-will-take-lead-in-2010/1100-6146958/

That's how convinced the gaming media was that Nintendo would lose, that just the possibility of them winning was considered joke material

The comments on this article are gold, 6 pages of "It'll never happen!" marked 14 years ago and then the comments from 13, 12, 10 years ago laughing at those guys.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 21 September 2020

Signature goes here!

It's a pretty funny graph, though it does show why we shouldn't make assumptions before a console and their competition has launched.