Old Analyst Prediction table for the 7th Generation. PS3/360/NRV (Wii)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Norion said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Basically, the common wisdom is that the next generation wll always be like the current state of the market, although a large player entering the market can change things.  In making these assumptions, the analysis is usually wrong.  And yet analysts make these assumptions every single time.  This is why I am laughing to myself about everyone expecting the PS5 to do great.  It probably won't.  People are just seeing that the PS4 did well and so assume the PS5 will do well.  If history is any indication, the safe bet is against the PS5.

The difference is the gen 7 predictions were made before Sony screwed up while now there isn't really any opportunity left for them to screw up and that combined with the PS5 getting positive reception and more attention than the Series X/S is strong evidence I think for gen 9 to be similar but with the PS5 maybe doing somewhat worse and the Series X/S somewhat better since Microsoft isn't screwing up nearly as hard this time. 

The analysts weren't just wrong about Generation 7.  The analysts are almost always wrong.  

Also your post seems to assume that Sony is supposed to win unless they screw up.  Sony isn't supposed to win.  Neither are Nintendo or Microsoft.  The winner has to actually earn it every single generation.  Past success does not determine future success.  Once the new system get released, then the company starts over at zero.  They can't rest on their laurels.  They have to actually offer new games and a good value on hardware, etc....  If the competition does a better job, then that company loses, even if that company is named "Sony".

Anyone who assumes Sony is supposed to win is making the same mistake as the analysts.  The success of the PS4 won't really help the PS5.  They still have to do the hard work of competing all over again.