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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your Xbox Series SX & PS5 lifetime sales predictions

The thing is Switch isnt a traditional home console. Its part handheld and that is its major selling feature. Because cloud gaming isn’t there yet and mobile controls are barely acceptable for any decent game, plus the screen is too small.

Causes of console demand decline IMO:

1) Casuals moving towards mobile/handheld gaming

2) Cloud gaming

3) PC Gaming subscriptions (EA Play/Game Pass, etc.)

4) Gaming PC cost decline

There are still a lot of hardcore Playstation and Microsoft gamers and they will probably still buy consoles. But here is the thing u dont need an expensive PC to cloud game. U can cloud game on your phone now. But even so when u add all the costs of really utilizing a 4k/8k console (TV, hard drive expansion) and the limitations of a console vs a PC then the costs really aren’t that much different.

Im not saying my projections will be right but its just what i see is the market moving more away from dedicated consoles. If u look at Stadia, Amazon, Microsoft u see they are getting third party games too. And Nvidia Geforce Now. Theres a ton of competition. I think gaming in general is growing, but gaming on consoles specifically will continue to decline.

Its very interesting to me though and fun to watch. 

Last edited by drinkandswim - on 30 September 2020

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src said:
MasonADC said:

Imagine all of the doom articles we would get if these numbers turned out true 

This generation is going to end on:

PS4 : 130 million

XB1 : 50-60 million

yeah i know why are you telling me this



PS5 90 million
Xbox 40 million



drinkandswim said:

Yeah PS5 might be higher than I predict, but im sticking with it. I doubt Microsoft will sell over 35 million life time. Console demand is in decline.

Handheld Gaming was taken over by Mobile Gaming, thats true, but to say that the demand for Consoles are down due to PC/etc, thats completely false. 



PS5 - 150M
XBOX Series - 80M

I have a feeling that both of them will be very sucessfull.



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I said there are multiple factors. But my numbers are def wrong now that Microsoft has stated all Bethesda games will not be on playstation going forward need to rethink my estimates.



drinkandswim said:

The thing is Switch isnt a traditional home console. Its part handheld and that is its major selling feature. Because cloud gaming isn’t there yet and mobile controls are barely acceptable for any decent game, plus the screen is too small.

Causes of console demand decline IMO:

1) Casuals moving towards mobile/handheld gaming

2) Cloud gaming

3) PC Gaming subscriptions (EA Play/Game Pass, etc.)

4) Gaming PC cost decline

There are still a lot of hardcore Playstation and Microsoft gamers and they will probably still buy consoles. But here is the thing u dont need an expensive PC to cloud game. U can cloud game on your phone now. But even so when u add all the costs of really utilizing a 4k/8k console (TV, hard drive expansion) and the limitations of a console vs a PC then the costs really aren’t that much different.

Im not saying my projections will be right but its just what i see is the market moving more away from dedicated consoles. If u look at Stadia, Amazon, Microsoft u see they are getting third party games too. And Nvidia Geforce Now. Theres a ton of competition. I think gaming in general is growing, but gaming on consoles specifically will continue to decline.

Its very interesting to me though and fun to watch. 

You're assuming that cloud gaming takes off this generation. Stadia is pretty much dead right now. XCloud, we don't have much info on and Geforcenow isn't really being taken up by the masses. And Amazon's Luna is a big question mark, I'm not trying to dismiss cloud gaming. I believe it will come but not until we have the infrastructure on a global scale to make it a good, lag free and stable experience for everyone. And as such it won't be adopted by the mainstream. Its like VR. Unless its cheap, fuss free, wireless the mass won't adopt such technologies. See 3D and why that failed to gain traction.

Meanwhile the Switch is selling 90% in hardware YOY without even a price cut https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-09-30-nintendo-switch-dominates-in-september-uk-monthly-charts. Console preorders are tracking above previous generation consoles. And sales for software the highest its been in the UK - TLOU2 topping the chart and Super Mario All-Stars selling a buckload and that's a collection of remastered ports.

I just don't see it. Console gaming is here to stay and people are thirsty for the next generation of consoles. Watch as Nintendo sales soar as the new Switch get announced next year. 



PS5 - 108 million

Xbox Series - 77 million



There are a lot of factors to take into consideration, how long the generation lasts, rather or not Xbox will make the ZeniMax games Xbox ecosystem exclusive, how many more acquisitions MS and Sony make. For the purposes of this thread and not needing to write out dozens of different predictions for different scenarios, I will assume that it is a 7 year generation (next consoles releasing Holiday 2027), and that there are no more acquisitions for either of them, with the only variable being ZeniMax exclusivity.

With ZeniMax exclusivity:
PS5: 95-105m
Xbox Series: 75-85m

Without ZeniMax exclusivity:
PS5: 105-115m
Xbox Series: 65-75m

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 01 October 2020