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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your Xbox Series SX & PS5 lifetime sales predictions

Lryu222 on 30 September 2020

PS5 - 150M
XBOX Series - 80M

I have a feeling that both of them will be very sucessfull.



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drinkandswim on 30 September 2020

I said there are multiple factors. But my numbers are def wrong now that Microsoft has stated all Bethesda games will not be on playstation going forward need to rethink my estimates.



hinch on 30 September 2020
drinkandswim said:

The thing is Switch isnt a traditional home console. Its part handheld and that is its major selling feature. Because cloud gaming isn’t there yet and mobile controls are barely acceptable for any decent game, plus the screen is too small.

Causes of console demand decline IMO:

1) Casuals moving towards mobile/handheld gaming

2) Cloud gaming

3) PC Gaming subscriptions (EA Play/Game Pass, etc.)

4) Gaming PC cost decline

There are still a lot of hardcore Playstation and Microsoft gamers and they will probably still buy consoles. But here is the thing u dont need an expensive PC to cloud game. U can cloud game on your phone now. But even so when u add all the costs of really utilizing a 4k/8k console (TV, hard drive expansion) and the limitations of a console vs a PC then the costs really aren’t that much different.

Im not saying my projections will be right but its just what i see is the market moving more away from dedicated consoles. If u look at Stadia, Amazon, Microsoft u see they are getting third party games too. And Nvidia Geforce Now. Theres a ton of competition. I think gaming in general is growing, but gaming on consoles specifically will continue to decline.

Its very interesting to me though and fun to watch. 

You're assuming that cloud gaming takes off this generation. Stadia is pretty much dead right now. XCloud, we don't have much info on and Geforcenow isn't really being taken up by the masses. And Amazon's Luna is a big question mark, I'm not trying to dismiss cloud gaming. I believe it will come but not until we have the infrastructure on a global scale to make it a good, lag free and stable experience for everyone. And as such it won't be adopted by the mainstream. Its like VR. Unless its cheap, fuss free, wireless the mass won't adopt such technologies. See 3D and why that failed to gain traction.

Meanwhile the Switch is selling 90% in hardware YOY without even a price cut https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-09-30-nintendo-switch-dominates-in-september-uk-monthly-charts. Console preorders are tracking above previous generation consoles. And sales for software the highest its been in the UK - TLOU2 topping the chart and Super Mario All-Stars selling a buckload and that's a collection of remastered ports.

I just don't see it. Console gaming is here to stay and people are thirsty for the next generation of consoles. Watch as Nintendo sales soar as the new Switch get announced next year. 



irvingeleniak on 30 September 2020

PS5 - 108 million

Xbox Series - 77 million