Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware August 30 to September 5

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Doesn't seem that long ago when some folks were insisting Switch had no chance of outselling Xbox One because it lacked graphics, third party support, and multimedia features compared to it.

Before the Switch came out I thought the worst it would sell was 3DS + Wii U, so in the 80-90 million range. But that is the worst I thought it would do with around 100 million more likely. Unless sales drop like a rock it will fly past 100 million and even has a chance of matching or outselling the DS and PS2.

Before the Switch came out I thought it'd be another flop like the Wii U haha. I quickly changed my mind though once it became clear Nintendo had learned their lessons.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

Before the Switch came out I thought the worst it would sell was 3DS + Wii U, so in the 80-90 million range. But that is the worst I thought it would do with around 100 million more likely. Unless sales drop like a rock it will fly past 100 million and even has a chance of matching or outselling the DS and PS2.

Before the Switch came out I thought it'd be another flop like the Wii U haha. I quickly changed my mind though once it became clear Nintendo had learned their lessons.

I knew it was going to be a success because of its first year line-up and it having Pokemon. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 said:
Mar1217 said:
While the Switch might explode every records in recent memories, the Xbone is ....

Dead. Let's just say it as it is. It might not reach the 50M by the end of it's run ...

Doesn't seem that long ago when some folks were insisting Switch had no chance of outselling Xbox One because it lacked graphics, third party support, and multimedia features compared to it.

So you are missing those left and right Nintendoom threads and Nintendo should go 3rd party? These threads disappeared like they were quietly sucked by a black hole.



wohufana said:
curl-6 said:

Doesn't seem that long ago when some folks were insisting Switch had no chance of outselling Xbox One because it lacked graphics, third party support, and multimedia features compared to it.

So you are missing those left and right Nintendoom threads and Nintendo should go 3rd party? These threads disappeared like they were quietly sucked by a black hole.

I wouldn't say I miss them, but they are hilarious in retrospect.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

mk7sx said:

Jan-Aug using VGChartz (Final YTD in ())

07 NDS 15.1M (29.3M)

08 NDS 14.2M (29.5M)

09 NDS 13.8M (27.3M)

08 Wii 11.9M (24.1M)

09 Wii 8.4M (21.1M)

20 NSW 14.7M (???)

Considering all of Nintendo's quarterly data has resulted in adjustments up for VGC data so far this year, it's quite possible that actuals for NSW right now are above 07 DS.  We'll see come Q2 results.

With new NPD data today, 2020 is up to 14.84M now for Jan-Aug.

Given the way the rest of this year has gone, I expect adjustments upwards for Europe/ROTW once we get Nintendo's offical FYQ2 data.

US YoY for Jul+Aug is now up 71%.  Sep will be huge in the US with the stock ticking back up again, I think anywhere from 6-800K.  Lite launch last year won't matter.  US NPD Sep 2019 was 429K.

JP YoY for Jul+Aug is up 129%.  Sep will be huge as well, but hard comp against Lite launch in Japan last year.  5 weeks of Sep were 656K.  We'll see what happens.

Sell-through for the quarter overall looks to be targeting 5.7-6.2M - maybe a tad bit higher if Europe is indeed a little undertracked.  Shipments could exceed NDS records and cross 7M for the quarter I think.



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mk7sx said:
mk7sx said:

Jan-Aug using VGChartz (Final YTD in ())

07 NDS 15.1M (29.3M)

08 NDS 14.2M (29.5M)

09 NDS 13.8M (27.3M)

08 Wii 11.9M (24.1M)

09 Wii 8.4M (21.1M)

20 NSW 14.7M (???)

Considering all of Nintendo's quarterly data has resulted in adjustments up for VGC data so far this year, it's quite possible that actuals for NSW right now are above 07 DS.  We'll see come Q2 results.

With new NPD data today, 2020 is up to 14.84M now for Jan-Aug.

Given the way the rest of this year has gone, I expect adjustments upwards for Europe/ROTW once we get Nintendo's offical FYQ2 data.

US YoY for Jul+Aug is now up 71%.  Sep will be huge in the US with the stock ticking back up again, I think anywhere from 6-800K.  Lite launch last year won't matter.  US NPD Sep 2019 was 429K.

JP YoY for Jul+Aug is up 129%.  Sep will be huge as well, but hard comp against Lite launch in Japan last year.  5 weeks of Sep were 656K.  We'll see what happens.

Sell-through for the quarter overall looks to be targeting 5.7-6.2M - maybe a tad bit higher if Europe is indeed a little undertracked.  Shipments could exceed NDS records and cross 7M for the quarter I think.

Considering Super Mario 3D All Stars is releasing in September, I expect Nintendo to ship out a bunch of hardware too.  Of course, the marketplace is going to quickly buy up whatever they ship, but the 2nd biggest game of the year (after Animal Crossing) should probably accompany a really big hardware shipment too.



Switch adjusted up by 27k for the week, based on NPD I presume.

372k in a week with no major new games, price cut, or hardware model, in September. Just bonkers.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

meanwhile in japan ps4 selling 3ds levels shows us that it has hit the market cap for traditional home consoles, AND that said market cap is shrinking quite rapidly due to the switch, at least in japan.
I'm fully expecting the ps5 to sell 70% of ps4 at best, 50% at worst, in japan, while the switch is aproching the all star reigion of 17-20 milion units that the all time bests reside in... in its fourth year, the peak year.
if they sell 5 mil, they'll surpass the LT sales of GBA, SNES, PS1, NES, PSP, and PS2 in japan, all potentially within Q3.

This is going to be a record setting year in japan.



Woooooow Switch!



Gaming was supposed to be dead, because everyone would move to iPad.

Then, millions and more millions of Switches and PS4s out there.

I wish I had saved all those gaming doom news articles.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?