RFA gonna pass Minecraft next week, Mario Party in a week or two, and BotW in probably 4 weeks! RFA gonna cruise in to the top few spots for Switch soon. The 2 million mark and then Odyssey would be next, almost certainly both achievable by end of the year. Though I suppose it's possibly Mario 3D All-Stars passes RFA for a little while depending on how big that is in Japan.

Damn, RFA at 1.48 million right now. If it averages 50k a week the next two months, that puts it at 1.88 mil by end of october, Then let's say it does 70k/week in november, puts it at 2.16 mil by end of November, which I guess is roughly around where Odyssey is now, then let's say 100k/wk the first four weeks in December, and maybe 20k the final week of the year, that'd put it at 2.58 million end of year. And that all seems pretty reasonable at this point. RFA lifetime sales in Japan could get pretty crazy in the next 4 months and put it easily in 6th place for Switch.

Don’t forget people, there is roughly 200k sales missing for RFA cuz of mynintendo store

How much did RFA sell on its first week?

Amazing amount of info Chris compiled over on Resetera from the Media Create white book for 2019, so thankful we have this info. 

Overall there Switch had 61% of the Software Market, with PS4 having 34,38% in 2019

01. NSW - 16.646.620 <61,97%>
02. PS4 - 9.235.333 <34,38%>
03. 3DS - 664.355 <2,47%>
04. PSV - 301.706 <1,12%>
05. XB1 - 12.946 <0,05%>
06. ALL - 26.860.960 <100,00%>

NSW
01. Nintendo - 7.585.954 <45,57%>
02. Pokemon Co. - 3.115.023 <18,71%>
03. Bandai Namco Games - 1.499.753 <9,01%>
04. Square Enix - 906.194 <5,44%>
05. Microsoft Game Studios - 512.614 <3,08%>
06. Level 5 - 386.811 <2,32%>
07. Sega - 363.496 <2,18%>
08. Marvelous - 269.366 <1,62%>
09. Konami - 259.519 <1,56%>
10. Koei Tecmo - 247.348 <1,49%>
00. Other - 1.500.542 <9,01%>
00. All Publishers - 16.646.620 <100,00%>

• Nintendo and Pokemon Co. had over 10.7M sales on the Switch
• Top performing game was Minecraft with 512.614 sales
• Bandai despite only releasing about half of their games on the Switch stillhad a great year, Fishing Spirits with 326.119 was their Top performing Switch game. They had 4 other games with over 100K Sales
• Square is next thanks to DQXI which made a little over half their sales, DQB2 being the other game with over 100K sales
• Level 5 is in 6th place but YW5's performance was a big failure for the studio 
• Capcom is missing from the list selling less than Koei, Konami, Marvelous, Level-5 and Sega last year

PS4
01. Square Enix - 1.352.209 <14,64%>
02. Capcom - 1.316.122 <14,25%>
03. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.284.234 <13,91%>
04. Bandai Namco Games - 997.189 <10,80%>
05. Sega - 494.874 <5,36%>
06. Konami - 455.705 <4,93%>
07. Electronic Arts - 418.135 <4,53%>
08. Atlus - 410.352 <4,44%>
09. Ubisoft - 363.446 <3,94%>
10. Koei Tecmo - 352.340 <3,82%>
00. Other - 1.790.727 <19,39%>
00. All Publishers - 9.235.333 <100,00%>

• Square tops the list thanks to Kingdom Hearts III with its 838.661 sales, next up is DQB2 with 100K 
• Capcom sales are basically three games - MHW with 443.388, RE2 376.315 & DMCV 198.182
• Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown , Super Robot Wars T, Jump Force & Code Vein were the top-performing PS4 Bandai titles, it will be interesting if AC's & CV end up getting a late port on the Switch, I doubt Bandai is happy with their sales. They just ported Jump Force which will probably end up doing over 50K in Japan by the end of the year. 

Heh, I asked this same question.  Answer below.

Top 30

NSW 22 (9 of which are third party)
PS4 8 (7 of which are third party)

Switch has 9/16 = 56% of third party games on the top 30 this week.  Japanese third party titles that are multiplat seem to be performing better overall on the Switch.  The Switch versions have better first week sales, and we can look at eBaseball Powerful Pro which has been on the chart for several weeks and see that the Switch version is now selling over double the weekly amount of the PS4 version.  On the other hand NBA 2K21 launched significantly higher on the PS4.  Overall, Switch seems to be the prefered platform for Japanese third party titles, although even in Japan, PS4 seems preferred for Western third party games.

10. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 – 7,318 / 215,075
20. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 – 3,565 / 177,864

16. [NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered Edition – 5,138 / 54,094
23. [PS4] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered Edition – 3,034 / 33,203

21. [NSW] Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions – 3,285 / 19,963
24. [PS4] Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions – 2,994 / 16,882

7. [PS4] NBA 2K21 – 8,541 / NEW
26. [NSW] NBA 2K21 – 2,489 / NEW

hang on just a little bit longer Mario Maker 2...just 39,020 to go to hit a million in Japan!

M-C 2018

01. Nintendo - 9.971.257 <35,00%>
02. Capcom - 2.735.760 <9,60%>
03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.231.249 <7,83%>
04. Pokemon Co. - 1.996.035 <7,01%>
05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.608.904 <5,65%>
06. Square Enix - 1.410.270 <4,95%>
07. Sega - 900.363 <3,16%>
08. Koei Tecmo - 849.747 <2,98%>
09. Konami - 738.612 <2,59%>
10. Microsoft Game Studios - 541.094 <1,90%>
11. Electronic Arts - 521.318 <1,83%>
12. Ubisoft - 487.701 <1,71%>
13. Level 5 - 458.876 <1,61%>
14. Atlus - 394.455 <1,38%>
15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 347.951 <1,22%>
16. Spike Chunsoft - 330.352 <1,16%>
17. Marvelous - 320.936 <1,13%>
18. Nippon Columbia - 250.211 <0,88%>
19. Bethesda Softworks - 234.078 <0,82%>
20. Nihon Falcom - 186.604 <0,65%>
00. Other - 1.974.548 <6,93%>
00. Total Software Sales - 28.490.321 <100,00%>

M-C 2019

01. / 01. Nintendo - 7.903.662 <29,42%> (-20%YOY)
02. / 04. Pokemon Co. - 3.216.372 <11,97%> (+61%YOY)
03. / 03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.543.566 <9,47%> (+14%YOY)
04. / 06. Square Enix - 2.288.930 <8,52%> (+14%YOY)
05. / 02. Capcom - 1.576.212 <5,87%> (-42%YOY)
06. / 05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.290.509 <4,80%> (-20%YOY)
07. / 07. Sega - 878.618 <3,27%> (-2%YOY)
08. / 09. Konami - 798.504 <2,97%> (+8%YOY)
09. / 08. Koei Tecmo - 628.410 <2,34%> (-26%YOY)
10. / 10. Microsoft Game Studios - 518.952 <1,93%> (-4%YOY)
11. / 11. Electronic Arts - 507.476 <1,89%> (-3%YOY)
12. / 14. Atlus - 470.285 <1,75%> (+19%YOY)
13. / 13. Level 5 - 433.404 <1,61%> (-6%YOY)
14. / 12. Ubisoft - 396.122 <1,47%> (-19%YOY)
15. / 17. Marvelous - 311.499 <1,16%> (-3%YOY)
16. / 00. From Software - 302.470 <1,13%>
17. / 15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 274.347 <1,02%> (-21%YOY)
18. / 16. Spike Chunsoft - 219.447 <0,82%> (-34%YOY)
19. / 20. Nippon Columbia - 176.539 <0,66%> (-29%YOY)
20. / 00. Warner Entertainment Japan - 161.596 <0,60%> 
00. Other - 1.964.040 <7,31%> (-0.5%YOY)
00. All Publishers - 26.860.960 <100,00%> (-5.71%YOY)

• 11.9M vs 11.1M from Nintendo & Pokemon Co that 800K difference is actually what made 2019 down compared to 2018
• Sony also saw a 20% drop in their 1st party published titles
• The most substancial drop by a third party was suffered by Capcom
• In the Top 10 the 3rd party companies who saw growth were Bandai, Square & Konami 
• Atlus saw the biggest growth thanks to Persona 5 Royale
• Ubisoft and Take-Two also saw drops in their sales - Bethesda wasn't even among the Top 20 Publishers last year
• EA and Microsoft were able to stay pretty much flat

I can only use Famitsu numbers to compare with 2020 thus far, but this gives us a good idea about what to expect for the annual totals

Famitsu 2020 Top 50:

1. NSW: Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 5.660.598
2. NSW: Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 988.346
3. PS4: Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
4. NSW: Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co)- 736.823
5. NSW: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 486.372
6. PS4: Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) -  385.143
7. NSW: Smash Ultimate (Nintendo) - 364.616
8. NSW: Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 362.420
9. NSW: Minecraft (Microsoft) - 348.159
10. NSW: Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 298.919
11. NSW: Super Mario Party (Nintendo) -  280.255
12. NSW: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) - 259.513
13. PS4: Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 
14. NSW: Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) - 254.742
15. NSW: Paper Mario: The Origami King (Nintendo) - 244.110
16. PS4: Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769
17. PS4: The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943
18. NSW: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 215.075
19. PS4: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 177.864
20. NSW: Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) - 172.088
21. PS4: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco Games) - 161.014
22. NSW: Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 160.476
23. NSW: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 159.701
24. PS4: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898
25. PS4: Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654
26. NSW: Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 148.940
27. NSW: New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 144.967
28. NSW: Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
29. PS4: Trials of Mana (Square) - 133.593
30. PS4: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315
31. NSW: Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo) - 128.989
32. NSW: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
33. PS4: Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094
34. NSW: Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
35. PS4: The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 91.286
36. NSW: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 89.751
37. PS4: Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai) - 85.010 
38. NSW: Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137
39. NSW: Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
40. NSW: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
41. PS4: Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Take-Two) - 54.860
42. NSW: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 54.094
43. PS4: Marvel's Avengers (Square Enix) - 42.979
44. PS4: Romance of the Three Kingdoms 14 (Koei) - 33.644
45. PS4: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 33.203 
46. NSW: Human: Fall Fla (Teyon Japan) - 29.004
47. NSW: Tokyo Mirage Session ♯FE Encore (Nintendo) - 27.017
48. NSW: My Hero Academia: One's Justice 2 (Bandai) - 26.915
49. PS4: Remnant: From the Ashes (DMM Games) - 26.670
50. NSW: Kotoba no Puzzle: Moji Pittan Encore (Bandai) - 25.457

TOTAL: 15.395.840

• NSW - 31
• PS4 - 18

Most Titles:

1. Nintendo & Pokemon Co - 17
2. Bandai - 9
3. Square - 7
4. Other - 7
5. Sega - 3
6. Sony - 2
7. Konami - 2
8. Atlus - 2

NSW Software TOTAL: 12.250.659 <79.6%>

PS4 Software TOTAL: 3.145.181 <20.4%>

By Publisher:

1. Nintendo - 9.453.370
2. Square Enix - 1.379.278
3. Pokemon Company - 996.336
4. Bandai Namco - 936.010
5. Sony - 608.086
6. Sega - 460.877
7. Konami - 392.939
8. Microsoft - 348.159
9. Capcom - 258.676
10. Atlus - 215.551

All Other: 356.558

• Overall with the release of Super Mario 3D Collection Nintendo will surpass its last year TOTAL from M-C Top 1000 prior to the holidays
• There has never been such a dominant year for Nintendo since it started to have competition 
• Software on the PS4/PS5 is extremely unlikely to surpass 6M, there is no title slated for the fall that could push the PS5 or sell over 300K on the PS4
• Without it's the biggest title FFVII PS4 software would be at 2.2M, without New Horizon Switch would be at 6.6M
• Nintendo will add a lot of sales thanks to Ring Fit, New Horizon, Super Mario 3D Collection, Pikmin and the rest of the evergreens 
• I don't think Nintendo or Pokemon Company have a major fall title to announce for 2020
• So far the biggest 3rd party titles for the fall are from Konami, Bandai & Koei Tecmo and will all launch exclusively on the Switch
• Square, Capcom, Marvelous could potentially shake things up with Monster Hunter, Rune Factory 5, and Bravely Default 2

Until there is clarity on what else is launching in 2020, I won't be making a prediction for the end of year totals, but the Switch should be around 20M software without a Monster Hunter, Bravely, Rune Factory 5 releasing. If everything releases we'd be looking at over >25M units of Software in next year's M-C Top 1000

Meanwhile on last year's used Market Playstation games continue to do well, and one of the reasons PS5 DE won't be such a hot item for hardcore gamers in Japan.

Top 500 Software Sales - 10.877.865 <68,57%>
Software Sales - 15.863.843 <100,00%>

Most Titles:

PS4 - 214
3DS - 129
NSW - 56
PSV - 52
PS3 - 22
WIU - 13
NDS - 11
WII - 3

01. PS4 - 5.492.746 <34,62%>
02. 3DS - 3.615.476 <22,79%>
03. NSW - 2.731.133 <17,22%>
04. PSV - 1.484.220 <9,36%>
05. PS3 - 1.215.502 <7,66%>
06. NDS - 504.064 <3,18%>
07. WIU - 328.275 <2,07%>
08. PSP - 296.773 <1,87%>
09. WII - 193.466 <1,22%>
10. XB1 - 2.188 <0,01%>
00. ALL - 15.863.843 <100,00%>

As we can see here Playstation ecosystem actually still has an edge with over 50% market share, only 56 games from the Switch make the Top 500, next year Switch should overtake 3DS on here as well. The main thing is this is why Retailers will probably also be inclined to push the more expensive PS5 model since all these old games from the PS4 will be compatible. This is one of the reasons that PS5 will have a very low attach rate for new games, as owners can purchase a vast library of used games and resell them after purchasing them. Still PS5 will be limited to a very hardcore audience that is also likely to own a Switch. It will probably be able to maintain over 10% Software share but will be a niche product in Japan with limited appeal. Without a portable, the 3rd biggest gaming market in the World will be dominated by Nintendo during the next few years.

I remember back in 2017, a lot of people doubted 25-30 million lifetime but it will happen