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Forums - Sales Discussion - August NPD 2020: Switch 504k, PS4 197k, XBO 45k

BlackBeauty said:
Welfare said:

Xbox One and PS4 actually went up MOM in April compared to Switch going down.

April/May was when Nintendo started prioritizing US and Europe over Japan and elsewhere so sales didn't fall as much as they could have considering the sell outs.

April was when all built up supply for PS4 and XB1 were sold through as May was a dead heat between both because they barely had any supply left over.

After March the comparison isn't valid because Switch isn't planned to be replaced this year and had production ramps while PS4/XB1 were slowing down in anticipation for next gen. June shows this with XB1 as production ceased for the One X and SAD and were both sold out by late June. PS4 as well starts to show this and July on shows the potential that Sony is employing similar strats to Nintendo where they prioritize US and Europe over Japan. 

Ma’am I don’t want to sound offensive but comparing “percentage jump” is a bit buffoonery. Simply because there are different baseline for each console. Both Xbox and PS4 were trending downward for years already before COVID hit. The switch has been selling incredibly well and has never slowed down. So the fact that the jump in percentage are similar makes your comparison doo doo.💩💩💩

The baseline was not zero. Switch was breaking records in 2019 too. This is like statistic 101. The switch adds to already record breaking run. PS4 and Xbox were RECOVERING the downward spiral. They are NOT remotely similar in any shape or form. 

Bold: He's not saying that. He's saying that the pandemic boosted all consoles by a similar percentage.

No one's trying to take anything away from Switch's success or "record breaking run".



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Replicant said:
BlackBeauty said:

Ma’am I don’t want to sound offensive but comparing “percentage jump” is a bit buffoonery. Simply because there are different baseline for each console. Both Xbox and PS4 were trending downward for years already before COVID hit. The switch has been selling incredibly well and has never slowed down. So the fact that the jump in percentage are similar makes your comparison doo doo.💩💩💩

The baseline was not zero. Switch was breaking records in 2019 too. This is like statistic 101. The switch adds to already record breaking run. PS4 and Xbox were RECOVERING the downward spiral. They are NOT remotely similar in any shape or form. 

Bold: He's not saying that. He's saying that the pandemic boosted all consoles by a similar percentage.

No one's trying to take anything away from Switch's success or "record breaking run".

?? it’s much easier to get big percentage boost from a lower baseline versus a higher one. What’s not to get here?

”Similar percentage” is not the whole story. These consoles were not “boosted” the same way at all. I’m repetiting myself here....



BlackBeauty said:
Replicant said:

Bold: He's not saying that. He's saying that the pandemic boosted all consoles by a similar percentage.

No one's trying to take anything away from Switch's success or "record breaking run".

?? it’s much easier to get big percentage boost from a lower baseline versus a higher one. What’s not to get here?

”Similar percentage” is not the whole story. These consoles were not “boosted” the same way at all. I’m repetiting myself here....

No, I get that.

It is indeed a more impressive boost by the Switch. I just don't think his point was to talk more/less impressive.



BlackBeauty said:
Replicant said:

Bold: He's not saying that. He's saying that the pandemic boosted all consoles by a similar percentage.

No one's trying to take anything away from Switch's success or "record breaking run".

?? it’s much easier to get big percentage boost from a lower baseline versus a higher one. What’s not to get here?

”Similar percentage” is not the whole story. These consoles were not “boosted” the same way at all. I’m repetiting myself here....

Yes they were. 

Explain why sales for PS4/XB1 went up in April, breaking April records for both?

And to your previous post, percentage increases are translatable between multiple products in the same industry. It's how you can directly compare how well or bad certain items do on how they perform against the normal seasonal changes and if big events happen.

Percentages don't care if the product was "trending down". If an event happens that boosts the industry by 3x, it's expected that at least a good majority see something similar to that boost. Doesn't matter if sales start at 10, 100, or 100K.

Switch is selling out since March in quantities never before seen for the platform. It is keeping that up by increasing production and shipments.

XB1/PS4 have been selling out since March in quantities not seen before for the platforms. They can't keep up because production is slowing in favor of next gen replacing them in a few months.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
BlackBeauty said:

?? it’s much easier to get big percentage boost from a lower baseline versus a higher one. What’s not to get here?

”Similar percentage” is not the whole story. These consoles were not “boosted” the same way at all. I’m repetiting myself here....

Yes they were. 

Explain why sales for PS4/XB1 went up in April, breaking April records for both?

And to your previous post, percentage increases are translatable between multiple products in the same industry. It's how you can directly compare how well or bad certain items do on how they perform against the normal seasonal changes and if big events happen.

Percentages don't care if the product was "trending down". If an event happens that boosts the industry by 3x, it's expected that at least a good majority see something similar to that boost. Doesn't matter if sales start at 10, 100, or 100K.

Switch is selling out since March in quantities never before seen for the platform. It is keeping that up by increasing production and shipments.

XB1/PS4 have been selling out since March in quantities not seen before for the platforms. They can't keep up because production is slowing in favor of next gen replacing them in a few months.

Yeah I’m sure you’d agree with this too.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/gbiz-japan-is-xboxs-fastest-growing-market.294203/

I’m going to quote users there:

“Xbox sales up 747% percent from last year amazing.”

“Sales DOUBLE from 10 to 20!” 

That’s how you’re sounding right now...
Percentage don’t care? What are you even talking about?? Lol it’s all relative. I’m OUT this is too much.



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BlackBeauty said:
Welfare said:

Yes they were. 

Explain why sales for PS4/XB1 went up in April, breaking April records for both?

And to your previous post, percentage increases are translatable between multiple products in the same industry. It's how you can directly compare how well or bad certain items do on how they perform against the normal seasonal changes and if big events happen.

Percentages don't care if the product was "trending down". If an event happens that boosts the industry by 3x, it's expected that at least a good majority see something similar to that boost. Doesn't matter if sales start at 10, 100, or 100K.

Switch is selling out since March in quantities never before seen for the platform. It is keeping that up by increasing production and shipments.

XB1/PS4 have been selling out since March in quantities not seen before for the platforms. They can't keep up because production is slowing in favor of next gen replacing them in a few months.

Yeah I’m sure you’d agree with this too.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/gbiz-japan-is-xboxs-fastest-growing-market.294203/

I’m going to quote users there:

“Xbox sales up 747% percent from last year amazing.”

“Sales DOUBLE from 10 to 20!” 

That’s how you’re sounding right now...
Percentage don’t care? What are you even talking about?? Lol it’s all relative. I’m OUT this is too much.

Are two things.

One is a console selling on par to Wii and DS peak levels.

Another is a console sale spiral down get up because of the macroeconomic effect. 

The same growth is not the same thing because of type of grow. One is a record breaker and another is surviving sales.



BlackBeauty said:
Welfare said:

Yes they were. 

Explain why sales for PS4/XB1 went up in April, breaking April records for both?

And to your previous post, percentage increases are translatable between multiple products in the same industry. It's how you can directly compare how well or bad certain items do on how they perform against the normal seasonal changes and if big events happen.

Percentages don't care if the product was "trending down". If an event happens that boosts the industry by 3x, it's expected that at least a good majority see something similar to that boost. Doesn't matter if sales start at 10, 100, or 100K.

Switch is selling out since March in quantities never before seen for the platform. It is keeping that up by increasing production and shipments.

XB1/PS4 have been selling out since March in quantities not seen before for the platforms. They can't keep up because production is slowing in favor of next gen replacing them in a few months.

Yeah I’m sure you’d agree with this too.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/gbiz-japan-is-xboxs-fastest-growing-market.294203/

I’m going to quote users there:

“Xbox sales up 747% percent from last year amazing.”

“Sales DOUBLE from 10 to 20!” 

That’s how you’re sounding right now...
Percentage don’t care? What are you even talking about?? Lol it’s all relative. I’m OUT this is too much.

You're not even debating anything.

Like really, what's the explanation behind XB1 and PS4 getting boosted at the exact same time as the Switch when COVID happened, and both had uncharacteristic performances in April, having their best April's for each brand ever, in the year where they were trending down?

"It's all relative" Wow I wonder who brought up the percentage increases being similar between all three consoles which means they were impacted to similar degrees 

How am I wrong



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Shadow1980 said:

Mandalore76 said:

Except they aren't.  I can readily & easily purchase a PS4 or an XBox One in the US right now, but I cannot do the same for a Nintendo Switch console, unless I want to pay a scalper on Amazon or Walmart.

That's now. We're talking about past months, and there were clearly stock issues for all three systems during late spring/early summer, considering the big bump for all three in August (restocks) and the XBO's awful July.

The post I quoted stated "All hardware is selling out because of COVID" <--- present tense.



Shadow1980 said:
theDX said:
Are we expecting the Switch to be the top seller for the rest of the year?

Yes.

Unless the Switch is way down YoY during the holidays (unlikely) and/or the PS5 & Series X/S have far better launches than the record-setting launch of the PS4, the Switch should be #1 every month for the rest of the year. Next year? Maybe. Maybe not. But definitely this year.

You don't think PS5 and/or XBSX will win their launch month??



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Shadow1980 said:

Yes.

Unless the Switch is way down YoY during the holidays (unlikely) and/or the PS5 & Series X/S have far better launches than the record-setting launch of the PS4, the Switch should be #1 every month for the rest of the year. Next year? Maybe. Maybe not. But definitely this year.

You don't think PS5 and/or XBSX will win their launch month??

If Nintendo stocks the NSW and has at least one good bundle ($300 sku) it’ll probably be up significantly YoY which would be at least 1.6mil imo.