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Forums - Sales Discussion - August NPD 2020: Switch 504k, PS4 197k, XBO 45k

With Nintendo digital software included NPD chart will looks similar to Germany chart.



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Jranation said:
src said:

PS4 has been stock constrained in Japan for weeks.

Or are you saying XB1 is stock constrained in the US? Otherwise, cute try at being clever.

I thought both Sony and MS reduced production for PS4 and XB1 to make room for next gen? 

Reduced production =/ sold out

So again, please post evidence of XB1 being sold out in US at that time period.



Nintendo Switch is still facing stock problems in Japan and WorldWide but still managed to sell many consoles because Nintendo knows the demand for that is huge while Sony didn't even bother to replenish the stock in Japan because demand isn't that big and probably didn't worth the hassle.

It doesn't change much from 1-2k PS4 sales to 6-10k sales because those numbers are still low. 



src said:
Jranation said:

I thought both Sony and MS reduced production for PS4 and XB1 to make room for next gen? 

Reduced production =/ sold out

So again, please post evidence of XB1 being sold out in US at that time period.

Oh sorry I dont have any evidence. I just read that from somewhere which I dont remember. But my point still stands. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/16/21327330/microsoft-xbox-one-x-s-digital-edition-discontinued



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Ryng said:
@Shadow1980
I really like reading your post most of the times and you are one of my favourite user in those threads.
I hope you'll see this comment as an advice and not criticism.

I think something you are missing as a predictor is the "fantasy". That's actually a very important factor. Fantasy does not mean making unrealistic and stupid predictions, it just mean that you can see things outside of the written story. I talked about something very similar in a youtube video, where people were saying "NO YOU CAN'T SAY AC NH WILL SELL FOR SURE 10 MILLION IN JAPAN, THAT'S MORE THAN THE BEST SELLING GAME", and is very worthless to say i was right.

Looking at the history of the market is very important for predictions, i totally agree, and that's why i think you are a very good analist. (yes i just used the word analist)
but lack of fantasy is a big problem, and if you wanna be one of the best, you really should start to be more brave with your predictions. Fuck if something seem insane, if you find reasons to something crazy happening, and you have the felling of a crazy prediction happening, then just do it. Look at me and Tbone. We don't give a fuck what people say, and we keep doing a lot of good predictions.

I will not reply to every points you made, because you can understand is just so much to read. if you want my opinion on the whole Animal Crossing, COVID, and Switch sales, i'll just say this:

COVID or not COVID, there's no way Switch would have sold less in 2020 than in 2019. Switch is not just slighly up YOY, it's massacring last year peformance, WITH SHORTAGES, there is no way that withouth COVID Switch would be down YOY right now. 2020 was destinated to be up YOY.
Now, if the biggest reason for this increase is COVID, or Animal Crossing, i don't really care. All i know is that both had a very important role, and made those insane numbers possible.

I believe the word you are looking for is "imagination" instead of "fantasy".  (I am just saying this, because I am aware that English is not your first language.)  The overall point of your first two paragraphs is, "Looking at past history is important, but under unusual circumstances imagination is also very important."

I also agree with the point of your last paragraph.  The main problem with the conclusions of @Shadow1980 is that he is ignoring the magnitude to which the Switch is up YoY.  People who study a lot of data are actually the most susceptible to confirmation bias, because we all naturally tend to focus on the data which reinforces what we already believe.  It can happen to the best of us.  Normally the way to get around this is to make a prediction.  If your prediction is right, then your explanation becomes stronger.  If your prediction is wrong, then you are supposed to change your beliefs about what is happening.  Here is what happened with Shadow1980.

He predicted, "PS4, XB1 and NSW will all be down YoY in 2020."  Here is what the data (worldwide) is currently saying:

2019 YTD 2020 YTD growth
NSW    8,199,543    15,597,300 90.2%
PS4    8,243,566      7,222,247 -12.4%
XB1    2,063,413      2,166,685 5.0%

His prediction was right about PS4, wrong about XB1 and massively wrong about Switch.  COVID alone would be enough to explain why XB1 is up YoY, but that isn't sufficient to explain the Switch's massive growth.  He wants to explain everything away with COVID, because he wants to stick to all of his current assumptions about how the video game market works.  That is confirmation bias.  He also tends to only use US data only, and the US just happens to be where the effects of COVID are the largest and longest lasting.  That further fuels his confirmation bias.  NPD data isn't even that reliable anymore, because it all comes from leaks at this point, but he insists on using US data.

Now I do agree with Shadow1980 on one thing.  Animal Crossing alone doesn't explain the Switch's massive growth.  However, the idea that COVID alone expains the Switch's sales is an even worse explanation.  There is actually more going on here than COVID+Animal Crossing, but Shadow's explanation is that it is less going on.  He thinks it's COVID alone.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I believe the word you are looking for is "imagination" instead of "fantasy".  (I am just saying this, because I am aware that English is not your first language.)  The overall point of your first two paragraphs is, "Looking at past history is important, but under unusual circumstances imagination is also very important."

I also agree with the point of your last paragraph.  The main problem with the conclusions of @Shadow1980 is that he is ignoring the magnitude to which the Switch is up YoY.  People who study a lot of data are actually the most susceptible to confirmation bias, because we all naturally tend to focus on the data which reinforces what we already believe.  It can happen to the best of us.  Normally the way to get around this is to make a prediction.  If your prediction is right, then your explanation becomes stronger.  If your prediction is wrong, then you are supposed to change your beliefs about what is happening.  Here is what happened with Shadow1980.

He predicted, "PS4, XB1 and NSW will all be down YoY in 2020."  Here is what the data (worldwide) is currently saying:

2019 YTD 2020 YTD growth
NSW    8,199,543    15,597,300 90.2%
PS4    8,243,566      7,222,247 -12.4%
XB1    2,063,413      2,166,685 5.0%

His prediction was right about PS4, wrong about XB1 and massively wrong about Switch.  COVID alone would be enough to explain why XB1 is up YoY, but that isn't sufficient to explain the Switch's massive growth.  He wants to explain everything away with COVID, because he wants to stick to all of his current assumptions about how the video game market works.  That is confirmation bias.  He also tends to only use US data only, and the US just happens to be where the effects of COVID are the largest and longest lasting.  That further fuels his confirmation bias.  NPD data isn't even that reliable anymore, because it all comes from leaks at this point, but he insists on using US data.

Now I do agree with Shadow1980 on one thing.  Animal Crossing alone doesn't explain the Switch's massive growth.  However, the idea that COVID alone expains the Switch's sales is an even worse explanation.  There is actually more going on here than COVID+Animal Crossing, but Shadow's explanation is that it is less going on.  He thinks it's COVID alone.

That kind of post isn't going to get us any further.

1. This is an NPD thread, so the focus will naturally be on US sales.

2. He doesn't think that it's COVID alone. The point of contention this month and in the past month has been how much of an effect COVID has had; neither side took the stance that it is a single factor alone that has resulted in this year's Switch sales.

3. You have to play dumb to call him wrong on the XB1 because it's a foregone conclusion that it will finish 2020 down year over year.

We have already been dealing with long posts from both sides, but if time's going to be wasted on sorting out strawman arguments, then we won't be getting anywhere.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I believe the word you are looking for is "imagination" instead of "fantasy".  (I am just saying this, because I am aware that English is not your first language.)  The overall point of your first two paragraphs is, "Looking at past history is important, but under unusual circumstances imagination is also very important."

I also agree with the point of your last paragraph.  The main problem with the conclusions of @Shadow1980 is that he is ignoring the magnitude to which the Switch is up YoY.  People who study a lot of data are actually the most susceptible to confirmation bias, because we all naturally tend to focus on the data which reinforces what we already believe.  It can happen to the best of us.  Normally the way to get around this is to make a prediction.  If your prediction is right, then your explanation becomes stronger.  If your prediction is wrong, then you are supposed to change your beliefs about what is happening.  Here is what happened with Shadow1980.

He predicted, "PS4, XB1 and NSW will all be down YoY in 2020."  Here is what the data (worldwide) is currently saying:

2019 YTD 2020 YTD growth
NSW    8,199,543    15,597,300 90.2%
PS4    8,243,566      7,222,247 -12.4%
XB1    2,063,413      2,166,685 5.0%

His prediction was right about PS4, wrong about XB1 and massively wrong about Switch.  COVID alone would be enough to explain why XB1 is up YoY, but that isn't sufficient to explain the Switch's massive growth.  He wants to explain everything away with COVID, because he wants to stick to all of his current assumptions about how the video game market works.  That is confirmation bias.  He also tends to only use US data only, and the US just happens to be where the effects of COVID are the largest and longest lasting.  That further fuels his confirmation bias.  NPD data isn't even that reliable anymore, because it all comes from leaks at this point, but he insists on using US data.

Now I do agree with Shadow1980 on one thing.  Animal Crossing alone doesn't explain the Switch's massive growth.  However, the idea that COVID alone expains the Switch's sales is an even worse explanation.  There is actually more going on here than COVID+Animal Crossing, but Shadow's explanation is that it is less going on.  He thinks it's COVID alone.

That kind of post isn't going to get us any further.

1. This is an NPD thread, so the focus will naturally be on US sales.

2. He doesn't think that it's COVID alone. The point of contention this month and in the past month has been how much of an effect COVID has had; neither side took the stance that it is a single factor alone that has resulted in this year's Switch sales.

3. You have to play dumb to call him wrong on the XB1 because it's a foregone conclusion that it will finish 2020 down year over year.

We have already been dealing with long posts from both sides, but if time's going to be wasted on sorting out strawman arguments, then we won't be getting anywhere.

Not sure why you are arguing with me.  We both think Shadow1980 is wrong, but you can't stand that I'm saying he is wrong in a different way, lol.  Anyway, as to your points...

1. True this is an NPD thread, but Shadow1980 mostly only makes these posts in NPD threads.  He seems to mostly ignore worldwide data or data from other regions.  Shadow1980 will sometimes make comments about how well Switch will sell worldwide, but his explanations always come back to US data.  It's a lot harder to come to these same conclusions when data from other regions is taken into account.

2.  His position is that the sales boost of the past two months is due to COVID plus stimulus checks, which themselves are a result of COVID.  He is in fact saying that the sales boost is due to COVID alone.

3.  You are nitpicking at a few words while missing my whole point.  XB1 sales are higher so far this year than what most people would have predicted on January 1, 2020.  This sales boost can be explained entiredly due to COVID.  However the Switch sales boost is much, much greater.  COVID alone does not explain why this sales boost is so much higher than XB1.



RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I believe the word you are looking for is "imagination" instead of "fantasy".  (I am just saying this, because I am aware that English is not your first language.)  The overall point of your first two paragraphs is, "Looking at past history is important, but under unusual circumstances imagination is also very important."

I also agree with the point of your last paragraph.  The main problem with the conclusions of @Shadow1980 is that he is ignoring the magnitude to which the Switch is up YoY.  People who study a lot of data are actually the most susceptible to confirmation bias, because we all naturally tend to focus on the data which reinforces what we already believe.  It can happen to the best of us.  Normally the way to get around this is to make a prediction.  If your prediction is right, then your explanation becomes stronger.  If your prediction is wrong, then you are supposed to change your beliefs about what is happening.  Here is what happened with Shadow1980.

He predicted, "PS4, XB1 and NSW will all be down YoY in 2020."  Here is what the data (worldwide) is currently saying:

2019 YTD 2020 YTD growth
NSW    8,199,543    15,597,300 90.2%
PS4    8,243,566      7,222,247 -12.4%
XB1    2,063,413      2,166,685 5.0%

His prediction was right about PS4, wrong about XB1 and massively wrong about Switch.  COVID alone would be enough to explain why XB1 is up YoY, but that isn't sufficient to explain the Switch's massive growth.  He wants to explain everything away with COVID, because he wants to stick to all of his current assumptions about how the video game market works.  That is confirmation bias.  He also tends to only use US data only, and the US just happens to be where the effects of COVID are the largest and longest lasting.  That further fuels his confirmation bias.  NPD data isn't even that reliable anymore, because it all comes from leaks at this point, but he insists on using US data.

Now I do agree with Shadow1980 on one thing.  Animal Crossing alone doesn't explain the Switch's massive growth.  However, the idea that COVID alone expains the Switch's sales is an even worse explanation.  There is actually more going on here than COVID+Animal Crossing, but Shadow's explanation is that it is less going on.  He thinks it's COVID alone.

That kind of post isn't going to get us any further.

1. This is an NPD thread, so the focus will naturally be on US sales.

2. He doesn't think that it's COVID alone. The point of contention this month and in the past month has been how much of an effect COVID has had; neither side took the stance that it is a single factor alone that has resulted in this year's Switch sales.

3. You have to play dumb to call him wrong on the XB1 because it's a foregone conclusion that it will finish 2020 down year over year.

We have already been dealing with long posts from both sides, but if time's going to be wasted on sorting out strawman arguments, then we won't be getting anywhere.

1. Yes

2. Nobody is denying Covid effect here, shadow creates a strawman argument if he thinks this. The COVID helps a lot all videogames, because all outside activities go down, and videogame have grows because of this. But the Nintendo grown is drive by Animal Crossing. 

3. XB1 and PS5 go down. Switch depends more on the game output and this game's outputs bring different tier of consumers. 



honestly, i think it just comes down to shadow massively underestimating just how much of a viral phenomenon animal crossing was and continues to be. i don't think any game comes close to the internet presence this has, other than maybe like peak fortnite and thats a F2P game. you cant use historical analysis for a game like this - a full priced exclusive selling 22 million in a few months is completely unprecedented territory. this game is frankly an outlier.

taking AC out of the equation, everything else shadow says makes sense