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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - “Another One Again?” BOLD Prediction: Switch Going to Ship 30mil+ This Fiscal Year

 

No it won’t, It’ll sell

Under 25mil 5 11.11%
 
25mil 6 13.33%
 
26mil 2 4.44%
 
27mil 7 15.56%
 
28mil 7 15.56%
 
29mil 2 4.44%
 
Actually your right 30mil!!! 12 26.67%
 
Pessimistic, over 32mil!! 4 8.89%
 
Total:45

Beating Wii 09 (26M) should be a safe bet. If we don't see stock issues, 28M could be possible. Even 30M I don't see out of reach, if we get another lockdown in Europe.



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Nintendo already shipped 24,600K in the last rolling 12 months. They shipped 5,670K in the most recent quarter (Apr-Jun) which is an annualized number of 22,680 without accounting for the seasonal effects present in the holiday quarter and this is before their recently reported production increase. I think the 25M number reported is inaccurate or lacking context - they already had the capacity to move that many units in a 12 month time frame. Their increased production has to be for a higher target than that.



mk7sx said:
Nintendo already shipped 24,600K in the last rolling 12 months. They shipped 5,670K in the most recent quarter (Apr-Jun) which is an annualized number of 22,680 without accounting for the seasonal effects present in the holiday quarter and this is before their recently reported production increase. I think the 25M number reported is inaccurate or lacking context - they already had the capacity to move that many units in a 12 month time frame. Their increased production has to be for a higher target than that.

That’s what I was thinking of when I made a 30mil prediction. The thing that stuck out to me the most which was odd was back At the end of March, NSW were all sold out, and production was on halt. That said they still manage to ship 5.6mil+ this quarter which should be impossible yet here we are going into Q2 and japan is up QoQ by 50% currently.



I do not think this Quarter will be down form Q1 since we've seen bigger shipments WW starting July. It's still out of stock yet they keep increasing the production numbers, meaning more are being shipped and sold. Would be weird if it ended up down from the quarter they struggled with stock.

The holidays will be huge, i don't know if next gen will be that big, we still need more info on that and on Nintendo's lineup. But it will be Animal crossing's first Holiday and many families only buy such presents at that time. I'm sure it can deliver a 10+ million quarter again.
For Q4, i'm expecting it to be moderately big as well. Nintendo don't really release game there but it will just come off the holiday hype and stock issues.

I do think they will reach 26 millions SOLD this calendar year and around 29-30 units shipped for sure.



Failure!!! Was off by a little more than a million



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tbone51 said:

Failure!!! Was off by a little more than a million

The only failure is those never making BOLD predictions.



With Nintendo having missed the mark last year by just under 1 million, it makes sense to discuss Switch's chances for 30m this year. As I said in the fiscal thread, Nintendo's forecast of 25.5 Million now represents the floor of any prediction that can be made this year, as in the investors meeting, Nintendo themselves stated that said figure was based solely on the level of production that they are certain they will be able to meet. As such, I feel that 26-30 Million is a reasonable range for predictions this year. If I were a betting man, I would definitely bet on the Switch shipping 30mil this year, but after having overshot my shipment predictions for 2 quarters running, I'll be keeping my estimates on the low end for now. Nonetheless, in my mind, there is a greater probability that the Switch will ship 30 million this year than under 25 million.



Only way Switch doesn't sell 30m units this FY is if they can't meet the demand.



Nintendo with the Switch:

CheddarPlease said:

With Nintendo having missed the mark last year by just under 1 million, it makes sense to discuss Switch's chances for 30m this year. As I said in the fiscal thread, Nintendo's forecast of 25.5 Million now represents the floor of any prediction that can be made this year, as in the investors meeting, Nintendo themselves stated that said figure was based solely on the level of production that they are certain they will be able to meet. As such, I feel that 26-30 Million is a reasonable range for predictions this year. If I were a betting man, I would definitely bet on the Switch shipping 30mil this year, but after having overshot my shipment predictions for 2 quarters running, I'll be keeping my estimates on the low end for now. Nonetheless, in my mind, there is a greater probability that the Switch will ship 30 million this year than under 25 million.

I’m going to be that guy and say close to 35mil shipped this FY 😳 



I'm betting on another 28mil year.