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I do not think this Quarter will be down form Q1 since we've seen bigger shipments WW starting July. It's still out of stock yet they keep increasing the production numbers, meaning more are being shipped and sold. Would be weird if it ended up down from the quarter they struggled with stock.

The holidays will be huge, i don't know if next gen will be that big, we still need more info on that and on Nintendo's lineup. But it will be Animal crossing's first Holiday and many families only buy such presents at that time. I'm sure it can deliver a 10+ million quarter again.
For Q4, i'm expecting it to be moderately big as well. Nintendo don't really release game there but it will just come off the holiday hype and stock issues.

I do think they will reach 26 millions SOLD this calendar year and around 29-30 units shipped for sure.