Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Speculation: No big fall title due to COVID, what can fill the void?

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A lot of things will be revealed when Nintendo releases their quarterly report in a few weeks. So ahead of that I do want to speculate on what the rest of this crazy year will bring to Nintendo. This is shaping up to be the current peak of Switch sales, if they manufacture 30M units that's how much they would sale for FY2020. This increase can be driven by Animal Crossing, Ring Fit Adventure, and a strong evergreen library. In Japan, we are also finally seeing actual titles that can sell half a million and contribute to the perception of the system.  

Now one thing Nintendo is notorious about is keeping things under wraps. There are constantly rumors around what they are working on:

Pikmin, Donkey Kong, Tomodachi, Wario, new 3D Mario have all been talked about in the past few years.

What we do know is that the Zelda team is working on Breath of the Wild 2 and this was supposed to be Nintendo's big fall title. We still don't know if the game has been delayed but looking at the history and complications around COVID it's a real possibility. This is the first time we've faced no major fall title confirmed so late into the year. IF Breath of the Wild 2 makes it, it would be insane but what would they have if it doesn't make it and how could they still ensure hitting such lofty numbers?

Nintendo sells 50% of hardware and software during the final quarter and they've had enough time to prepare to continue growth while everyone seemingly is looking to join their ecosystem. What their rivals are doing isn't going to affect them because Switch is a proven complementary device to either PS/XB/PC or bought by blue ocean audience. This is why we would see the biggest fall sales in the industry in a while and despite strong launch especially by PS5 it would still be Nintendo coming out on top. This will happen regardless of whether Breath of the Wild 2 launches. And I will overview my reasoning on this below. 

Now Nintendo is definitely working on a few things, Mario Kart 9 must be at least in Prototype phase but Nintendo probably isn't in a hurry to finish this as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe continues to maintain massive sales while also maintaining it's the high price. I think maybe someone at Nintendo read the famous Polygon article and decided they won't launch Mario Kart 9 until they've ensured 8 is the best selling game in the franchise. 

The other sure thing is a new 3D Mario(hoping for a new Galaxy), now this reveal might coincide with the reveal of some ports of games from prior generations. These ports might give Nintendo the option of pushing this title to the fall 2021 window. It's would be four years from Super Mario Odyssey.

Below are the internal resources and what they are likely working on, outside of Breath of the Wild 2 I don't see what other game could have been the big Fall Title planned for this year(supplemented by New Horizon & Ring Fit Adventure DLC and Pokemon Snap). Now if Breath of the Wild 2 is pushed back there is still a chance of an unannounced game to launch in the fall but it's unlikely to be able to fill the void by itself.

  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No1 is known to be associated with the Development of Bayonetta 3, usually, this is the group that works on games together with external or internal partners. There are a few different 3rd Party games coming out that this team could be involved in(Pokemon Snap being a recent example we learned about). 
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No2 is the team responsible for Animal Crossing and Splatoon 2, currently, they could be early into the Development of Splatoon 3.  But the majority of their resources is the continued content in New Horizon. This team is a key team in terms of growth driven by games like Animal Crossing and Splatoon. With future content in New Horizon being a key part of Nintendo's holiday strategy. Also since their new game released, they've started to support Splatoon 2 as well, which I will return to. 
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 3 focused around all things Zelda and Hyrule, at this point, we cannot say whether Breath of the Wild 2 will be able to launch this year but the majority of this group is definitely focused around building on the huge success of the original. To me they would be the key in keeping the focus on Nintendo as the sequel if pulled off flawlessly will shift attention from Sony and Microsoft's console launches. They could also be involved in a smaller project that we will probably hear about next year. 
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 4 I believe this group's last game was Super Mario Maker 2, unclear on what they are working on right now
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 5 & 6 this is another key group that will be driving success right now, their latest hit is Ring Fit Adventure. But these two teams also produced Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training.
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 7 Not know what they are working on - could be a new Wario, Tomodachi or Rhytumn Heaven
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 8 Only involved in Super Mario Maker 2 and Smash Ultimate recently
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 9 Working on Mario Kart Tour and NSBMU, this group is potentially working on unknown projects. 
  • Nintendo EPD Production Group No. 10 Last worked on Super Mario Maker 2 and NSBMU

As theorized before a lot of these groups are involved in Mario Kart 9 and new 3D Mario. What I expect revealed the next 6 months

  • Group 1: Pokemon Snap & Bayonetta 3
  • Group 2: New Horizon DLC & Splatoon 2 Support 
  • Group 3: Breath of the Wild 2
  • Group 4, 8, 9, 10: New 3DS Mario, Mario Kart and rumored Mario remasters/ports
  • Group 5 & 6: Support for Ring Fit Adventure + AA Game
  • Group 7: Unannounced title
  • Retro: Metroid Prime 4 
  • Monolith: Supporting Breath of the Wild 2 and an unannounced title
  • NDCube: Just launched Clubhouse Games

I expect Group 1 is helping with Pokemon Snap, and Bayonetta 3 expecting Snap to be Oct/Nov and Bayonetta 3 Dec/Jan

The big fall game planned was Breath of the Wild 2 but it's unclear if it will make it in a 2020 launch window, if it doesn't Nintendo is very likely to push it back to March 2021. I don't expect Monolith to be releasing anything and most of their resources are probably focused on assisting with Breath of the Wild 2

Finally, there is Retro, announced to be working on Metroid Prime 4 in January 2019, its hard for me to believe that the game would be ready by the end of this fiscal year. But that mainly depends on when Retro began to be involved in the restarted project.

So what is the best way to ensure at least 45-50% of Yearly sales are made in the fall?

New Horizon, Splatoon 2, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Ring Fit Adventure DLC

It's obvious that New Horizon will continue to be a GaaS, we don't know whether to expect new content to be paid or continued to be free but I do expect something pretty major for the fall. Currently, everything is happening on an island, but what about a Mountain Resort? If this game isn't supported for at least 2 years I would be massively surprised. The floor for New Horizon with 2 years of support is 40 Million World wide without any problems. It would be one of the best selling games World Wide in November and December.

Group 2 is extremely adept at supporting games and they are behind two of Nintendo's most often updated games. Now with New Horizon released it likely released a certain percent of the team to return to Splatoon. Now the question is whether Splatoon 2 had some PoC additional content that never made it into the game(we know about two such modes), so to Nintendo already realizing COVID would affect development they might have decided to push back Splatoon 3 if they are able to push sales of Splatoon 2 this year through additional content. One Splatfest seem to reignite interest in the game in Japan and with digital promotions, we aren't getting the full picture of the sales. Thus far this has only lead to Splatfests, but it would be pretty easy if these new concepts were somewhat developed but scrapped or put off for the sequel. Now with no fall games Group 2 could have been tasked with a bit more support of Splatoon 2 that they could get to the audience before the end of the year. I don't expect these to be major but a few more maps, or some customization options, with a new mode being an outside possibility to that a dev team could build in a 9 month period. 

Ring Fit Adventure's lack of stock actually makes it central to Nintendo's fall plans, personally's my opinion is that they've been holding back stock since May. Ring Fit's current lack of stock is probably focused around preparing enough stock for a "second launch" for the game during Q3 when Nintendo usually makes 50% of their Software and Hardware sales. Ring Fit bundle and DLC could be how Nintendo approaches the holidays if Breath of the Wild 2 isn't where the majority of their marketing is focused on. We've already seen one major update for the game without much notice but we always gotta keep in mind that this game is currently 3.5M to 5M World Wide but the team behind this created hits that sold much much more namely Wii Sports a game thats sold 82M and people still actually buy Wii and buy it... Did Ring Fit really get a major marketing push during it's launch? I think the potential is there with the announcement of DLC and new Peripherals you could buy. 

Finally, this is more of hope considering how well it's selling but I still would love to see Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC.. if they aren't planning 9 anytime soon.. they could still release new maps and characters from Splatoon, Breath of the Wild, New Horizon, Minecraft universe. I love my Mario Kart 8 but I bought it back in 2014 for the Wii U.. I would totally pay $30 just for one DLC Pack with 4 maps and characters

Let me know what you think? Still, hoping for a big announcement or a Breath of the Wild 2 date? Pessimistic about their chances because of competition? 

To me, they are going from strength to strength at the moment. This will be a historic year for them...

Last edited by noshten - on 01 August 2020

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They could literally release nothing else this year and do insane fall numbers. And because of that, I'm fearful this may be the biggest drought holiday season ever and excited that we may have the best Spring ever in 2021 when these delayed games come out.

Nintendo only releases games when they are ready and only when they can make the most profit from them. If one of those two things doesn't lineup in the fall, then it will make no sense for them to release their heavy hitters when they can wait until Spring when there wouldn't normally be as much demand. If they are gonna sell 20-25 mil Switch's this year regardless due to production restraints from Covid, why release new heavy hitters earlier than that production line can catch-up?



noshten said:

What we do know is that the Zelda team is working on Breath of the Wild 2 and this was supposed to be Nintendo's big fall title. We still don't know if the game has been delayed but looking at the history and complications around COVID it's a real possibility. This is the first time we've faced no major fall title confirmed so late into the year. IF Breath of the Wild 2 makes it, it would be insane but what would they have if it doesn't make it and how could they still ensure hitting such lofty numbers?

I'm sorry but this is where I stopped reading.

No one ever said Breath of the Wild 2 was coming this year. We didn't "know" that at all, because it's not true. If you thought it was gonna happen, then good for you I suppose, but it was always a very hopeful prediction to say the least. If it doesn't come out this year, it wasn't "delayed", that's only your perception of it as you had your hopes up too high.

And yeah, there will be no major fall title for Nintendo, get over it. Play older games to fill the void, I don't know.



But what if they had the capacity to sell 30 million. Unlike prior years now they have two production lines NSW and NSW L. Also they diversified their supply chain which meant that now factories in Vietnam can scale NSW L production. It's very likely the vast majority of NSW are still being made in China because they require far more work from a qualified workforce. Vietnam simply doesn't have the needed workforce for the NSW but that's why NSW Le was created. This is what allows them to scale production with demand. Personally I expect that Switch production to be pretty limited by the type of qualification needed to work with the three components(dock, tablet, joycons). This is one of the reasons they've never been able to scale production of the OG Switch and Lite was launched.

NSW is still not that far from where we started in 2019 they sold 16.95M while in 2020 14.83M for this year I expect 16-20M. It's diffucult to know whether we can see growth for the rest of the fyscal year but that's what I expect.

NSW L is the device they could use to greatly expand sales during the holidays. In Japan, NSW is at flat compared to last year, but due to NSW L hardware sales have doubled. NSW L sales were at 6.19M FY2020 according to their FY results, but for FY2021  they could very well produce 15M. 

But to justify such a supply either Breath of the Wild 2 needs to release in the fall or they need to have a great DLC Strategy in place currently we know about New Horizon and Smash Ultimate but to keep momentum Ring Fit Adventure and either Splatoon 2 or Mario Kart 8 Deluxe need to also receive some more support. Specifically, Ring Fit Adventure bundles, new content and big marketing could push it into the zeitgeist this holiday season for all types of consumers. This game's full potential is still unknown there was a thread whether it could be compared to Wii series and I definitely believe if Nintendo pushes it it could sell 10M this holiday quarter alone.   

I do agree with you that they could end up releasing nothing additional for the rest of the year and still end up with 25M sales easily.. 

 




I'm sorry but this is where I stopped reading.

No one ever said Breath of the Wild 2 was coming this year. We didn't "know" that at all, because it's not true. If you thought it was gonna happen, then good for you I suppose, but it was always a very hopeful prediction to say the least. If it doesn't come out this year, it wasn't "delayed", that's only your perception of it as you had your hopes up too high.

And yeah, there will be no major fall title for Nintendo, get over it. Play older games to fill the void, I don't know.

I'm pretty sure Bayonetta 3 will come out by February which is enough for me, in terms of Breath of the Wild 2 you are right it was always TBD but I doubt Nintendo initially wanted the holiday quarter to lack any major title from their side. That's why I bring it up, there is no other more likely candidate for their big holiday game. I don't have expectations about when it comes out personally, I'm a patient person. 

In any case, I mostly play Splatoon 2 and indies, last 1st party title I bought was Bayonetta since I wanted to replay it. When I decide to fill the void I might just buy New Horizon ;) 

This is mainly to speculate on how they are planning to keep mindshare in the West, maintain momentum with the sales, while their competitors are launching their new systems - especially in a post-COVID World which is looking for escapism. With no big fall title yet dated but huge demand they would likely want to capitalize in some way even if they aren't able to launch another major game this holiday. 



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Hentai, tons and tons of Nintendo hentai



             

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noshten said:

I'm pretty sure Bayonetta 3 will come out by February which is enough for me,

That's... umm..... yeah, man, good for you.



Holly Michaels cosplay Bayonetta porn..erm I'm sorry I mean just give me a Bayonetta 3 trailer and I will be fine. I have so many other games and I also get old games. I survived worse droughts.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

If they don't end up having a major new release (which obviously they still could, we simply know nothing about future game releases at this point), I think it's likely they realized that a couple months ago and can probably put together some ports in time for the holidays. Mario Collection? Wind Waker HD? Metroid Prime Trilogy HD? 3D Mario World? Skyward Sword HD? If a few of those came out, along with some third party games, it'd be a lackluster holiday sure but enough to get plenty of gamers excited. A good Mario Collection alone would probably be a 10 million seller. Heck I'd eventually pick up the first three of those ports so I'd be perfectly fine with that holiday if then 2021 is a huge year since Fall 2020 games got pushed back to Winter/Spring 2021.

The fact that they only announced Paper Mario what like less than two months before it came out or something makes me think we'll be getting some game announcements in the next two months and the people who just assume nothing is coming will be pleasantly surprised.



Nothing can fill the void. Nintendo has to get their shit together. No excuses. Sony and Microsoft are releasing their new consoles, while Nintendo can’t have a freaking game ready for the holidays? Unacceptable.