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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The console war is over

DonFerrari said:

And since you can`t provide revenue or profit for xbox we can only really look at their hw sales estimatives from several different places.

From the 3 companies the only one that really can have much higher profit than the others with a lot lower sales is Nintendo because first their games budget is a lot smaller, they have a very high attach ratio and mostly sell first party games. MS and Sony their profit is very dependent on the number of consoles sold (with subs about 40-50% of the HW sales, games sold total about 12 per consoles and most being 3rd party). So you won`t have Xbox selling half of PS and profiting double unless you want to pick up money made on other markets (let`s say consider GP, SW, Gold sales done on PC, minecraft sales done on PS, PC and Switch that isn`t a comparison to include against Switch or PS as much as isn`t picking Pokemon Go revenue or anime or merchandise that go to Nintendo) even if in current gen even if you pick every single source of revenue and profit and for the whole department (that have more than even every Xbox market) it doesn`t win from Nintendo or Playstation.

You just answered my question and that's exactly the direction Xbox is taking. Now that doesn't mean it made XB1 more successful this gen than the PS4, far from it, it just means they are building on a model where they don't need to rely on console hardware to deliver record breaking profits etc.

RolStoppable said:

It's just like I said the first time I responded to you: You can't tell the difference between revenue and profit. When you first posted your example, you said that company A made $3 billion in revenue and company B made $5 billion in revenue. Now you use the same numbers as profit figures. Something like that can only happen when somebody doesn't know that revenue and profit are not the same thing.

A proper example would look like this:

Company A sells 10m consoles, makes $8 billion in revenue, a profit of $1 billion.
Company B sells 5m consoles, makes $6 billion in revenue, a profit of $2 billion.

That's how you get your desired result of company B doing better than company A despite selling less hardware.

But even if you get the example correct, the question remains how it applies to the real world. When Microsoft gets outclassed by a big margin in hardware sales, their competitors can naturally sell a lot more games and subscriptions than Microsoft can. Furthermore, Microsoft's only growing business right now are Game Pass subscriptions, but they have been selling most of them at such low prices that they've been almost given away for free; this allows Microsoft to brag about subscription numbers, but it's far from a profitable business at this point.

I made the question simpler which i stated so we can get to the point. Hardware and profits. The potential for bigger sales is correct if you sell more hardware however keep in mind that producing more hardware eats up costs as well. To manufacture millions of consoles as well as Sony and Xbox eating the costs is like a double edge sword and that's if you sell the consoles to begin with. MS is looking past that by making their games suitable on PC and based on rental services like GamePass so they wont have to produce as many Xboxes or rely on trying to sell them. By going outside the walls of the consoles industry, not only does it increase their audience beyond the console market but also promoting their own brand in the mean time. The revenue that GamePass will be making for Xbox over the long term will be massive it they continue to grow the service and maintain the quality. They wont sell as many consoles with this strategy and that's the point, its not about selling as many consoles anymore for Xbox, its about getting onto Xbox Live/GP. If they sell consoles in the process than obviously that's a good thing too, they have an audience their and they will continue to offer the options.

Consoles are important, just each company prioritizes hardware differently, Sony and Nintendo's structure is all about selling the consoles and they heavily rely on it, if the PS5 or next Nintendo console doesn't sell well it hurts the business as they don't have any other type of alternatives, well Sony has PSNow. If Xbox doesn't sell well next gen, they have plenty of other ways of earning money so the business risk is also a lot less..

Keep in mind, not all console owners buy into PSN or Live, something these companies want you to do, and it looks like Xbox is trying to turn more people towards the service so instead of having 30% subscribed, they want 100% subscribed and that's where GamePass comes in, its not Live but its an affordable entry which is crazy not to sub if you are a Xbox owner, its even a good bargain for PC gamers. Add in Xcloud and you have plenty of potential to make more money than they would have if they just stay locked in the console market.



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Azzanation said:

DonFerrari said:

And since you can`t provide revenue or profit for xbox we can only really look at their hw sales estimatives from several different places.

From the 3 companies the only one that really can have much higher profit than the others with a lot lower sales is Nintendo because first their games budget is a lot smaller, they have a very high attach ratio and mostly sell first party games. MS and Sony their profit is very dependent on the number of consoles sold (with subs about 40-50% of the HW sales, games sold total about 12 per consoles and most being 3rd party). So you won`t have Xbox selling half of PS and profiting double unless you want to pick up money made on other markets (let`s say consider GP, SW, Gold sales done on PC, minecraft sales done on PS, PC and Switch that isn`t a comparison to include against Switch or PS as much as isn`t picking Pokemon Go revenue or anime or merchandise that go to Nintendo) even if in current gen even if you pick every single source of revenue and profit and for the whole department (that have more than even every Xbox market) it doesn`t win from Nintendo or Playstation.

You just answered my question and that's exactly the direction Xbox is taking. Now that doesn't mean it made XB1 more successful this gen than the PS4, far from it, it just means they are building on a model where they don't need to rely on console hardware to deliver record breaking profits etc.

RolStoppable said:

It's just like I said the first time I responded to you: You can't tell the difference between revenue and profit. When you first posted your example, you said that company A made $3 billion in revenue and company B made $5 billion in revenue. Now you use the same numbers as profit figures. Something like that can only happen when somebody doesn't know that revenue and profit are not the same thing.

A proper example would look like this:

Company A sells 10m consoles, makes $8 billion in revenue, a profit of $1 billion.
Company B sells 5m consoles, makes $6 billion in revenue, a profit of $2 billion.

That's how you get your desired result of company B doing better than company A despite selling less hardware.

But even if you get the example correct, the question remains how it applies to the real world. When Microsoft gets outclassed by a big margin in hardware sales, their competitors can naturally sell a lot more games and subscriptions than Microsoft can. Furthermore, Microsoft's only growing business right now are Game Pass subscriptions, but they have been selling most of them at such low prices that they've been almost given away for free; this allows Microsoft to brag about subscription numbers, but it's far from a profitable business at this point.

I made the question simpler which i stated so we can get to the point. Hardware and profits. The potential for bigger sales is correct if you sell more hardware however keep in mind that producing more hardware eats up costs as well. To manufacture millions of consoles as well as Sony and Xbox eating the costs is like a double edge sword and that's if you sell the consoles to begin with. MS is looking past that by making their games suitable on PC and based on rental services like GamePass so they wont have to produce as many Xboxes or rely on trying to sell them. By going outside the walls of the consoles industry, not only does it increase their audience beyond the console market but also promoting their own brand in the mean time. The revenue that GamePass will be making for Xbox over the long term will be massive it they continue to grow the service and maintain the quality. They wont sell as many consoles with this strategy and that's the point, its not about selling as many consoles anymore for Xbox, its about getting onto Xbox Live/GP. If they sell consoles in the process than obviously that's a good thing too, they have an audience their and they will continue to offer the options.

Consoles are important, just each company prioritizes hardware differently, Sony and Nintendo's structure is all about selling the consoles and they heavily rely on it, if the PS5 or next Nintendo console doesn't sell well it hurts the business as they don't have any other type of alternatives, well Sony has PSNow. If Xbox doesn't sell well next gen, they have plenty of other ways of earning money so the business risk is also a lot less..

Keep in mind, not all console owners buy into PSN or Live, something these companies want you to do, and it looks like Xbox is trying to turn more people towards the service so instead of having 30% subscribed, they want 100% subscribed and that's where GamePass comes in, its not Live but its an affordable entry which is crazy not to sub if you are a Xbox owner, its even a good bargain for PC gamers. Add in Xcloud and you have plenty of potential to make more money than they would have if they just stay locked in the console market.

Except you have a humongous bridge on to close from not selling much HW to still manage to sell a lot of SW and subs



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Azzanation said:

Glad you can see what i am trying to say in my example, and not turning this into a PS4 vs XB1 post. The major profits is with the software and subs, the more software and subs sold the more profit is made.

Look what Pokemon GO did for Nintendo, it made $7.5b in revenue for Nintendo just for 1 game and it wasn't on a Nintendo platform. 360 lost $3b in hardware and PS3 lost $5b in hardware by 2013. Excluding the profits Live made for the 360 and the profits from the games sold on both consoles, the Hardware lost billions. 1 game from Nintendo did the complete opposite number 

Currently the top 6 best selling Steam games, 4 of them are from Xbox. Add PC GamePass subscribers to the mix and you can start seeing the growth. Xbox is covering more markets and soon Streaming will be in the mix as well.  

You don't need to explain this to me as I totally understand what are you talking about. My question is: why do you think that success of games made by MS internal studios on Steam is suddenly gonna triple their revenue or something that you heavily suggest judging by your posts. What makes you think that it will suddenly result in such a huge growth of revenue that it will not only offset the potential tens of millions consoles sales loss and therefore the loss of all the royalties that could have been made from the software sales on these consoles, but also will allow MS to somehow become bigger than Playstation? That's the question



 

JapaneseGamesLover said:
Xbox Series X is looking kinda gloom. I see the console getting a Wii U reception sadly.

Wanna bet that it will sell at least double than what WiiU did?



 

DonFerrari said:
 

yvanjean said:
Major Nelson knows there are many people that are locked to one ecosystem. Microsoft's strategy is to give gamers as many options to join the Xbox ecosystem even if it's just for a short time. Microsoft wants to break the narrative that you need to own a console to play exclusives. I fear what would happen if the Gamepass grows too much and what would happen to the game industry as a result.

And he do that by not having exclusives anymore right...

Don't be stupid, there a huge difference between no exclusives and Xbox exclusives. Microsoft doesn't have true consoles exclusives but I see that as a positive especially with Xcloud which is going to be free with my Gamepass ultimate. I play with friends and family that aren't going to upgrade right away, so I'm very happy with the Xbox approach. 

Anyone that buys Gamepass, play Xbox games on Xcloud or PC is supporting Xbox brand which will result in having more games and capital to push more investment. Which is going to benefits console owners. 

Microsoft has finally listen to what we been asking for and that's games games games. My gamepass ultimate subscription goes till March 2022, which will give me access to over $2000 worth of games for less than $120 subscription costs.  Microsoft is going to have the biggest launch library ever with Xbox Series X and a true killer app right at launch with Halo Infinite. 

What the article is actually referring to is Microsoft is now giving an easy option for people in the PS5 ecosystem to play with their friends on the Xbox ecosystem for cheap. Xcloud is going to be a big game-changer in terms of accessibility. PS5 owner can play any Microsoft game going forward without really having to invest and commit to the Xbox ecosystem. 



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yvanjean said:
DonFerrari said:

And he do that by not having exclusives anymore right...

Don't be stupid, there a huge difference between no exclusives and Xbox exclusives. Microsoft doesn't have true consoles exclusives but I see that as a positive especially with Xcloud which is going to be free with my Gamepass ultimate. I play with friends and family that aren't going to upgrade right away, so I'm very happy with the Xbox approach. 

Anyone that buys Gamepass, play Xbox games on Xcloud or PC is supporting Xbox brand which will result in having more games and capital to push more investment. Which is going to benefits console owners. 

Microsoft has finally listen to what we been asking for and that's games games games. My gamepass ultimate subscription goes till March 2022, which will give me access to over $2000 worth of games for less than $120 subscription costs.  Microsoft is going to have the biggest launch library ever with Xbox Series X and a true killer app right at launch with Halo Infinite. 

What the article is actually referring to is Microsoft is now giving an easy option for people in the PS5 ecosystem to play with their friends on the Xbox ecosystem for cheap. Xcloud is going to be a big game-changer in terms of accessibility. PS5 owner can play any Microsoft game going forward without really having to invest and commit to the Xbox ecosystem. 

And you certainly will explain to us how 10 or 20M subscriber putting 120 (2.4B) for a 2,5 year worth of 2000 content will pay out right... Because the 3rd parties will get a cut, the cost to develop 1st party will also get that... while you do that Sony is getting 40M subs on plus paying just as much for multiplayer and some freebies much cheaper since they are older games.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

And you certainly will explain to us how 10 or 20M subscriber putting 120 (2.4B) for a 2,5 year worth of 2000 content will pay outright... Because the 3rd parties will get a cut, the cost to develop 1st party will also get that... while you do that Sony is getting 40M subs on plus paying just as much for multiplayer and some freebies much cheaper since they are older games.

I think you really need to differentiate between console sales and financial success. Besides both Microsoft and Sony are really going to benefit financially from the switch to all-digital, both aren't going anywhere anytime soon. 

Wow, your giving us the baseline for what Gamepass currently offers with10-20M subscribers.   

Xbox Live has 90 million monthly users, plus hundreds of thousands testing xCloud. Microsoft recently revealed Xbox Live user numbers for 2020, noting that the service attracts almost 90 million monthly players.Apr 30, 2020

You must have missed the news that both Xbox live and Gamepass service will get merge in September.

So, you are looking at 90M+ Gamepass subscribers. Microsoft is always going to have more subs when compare to Sony since they include all of Xbox consoles, Xcloud and PC. Xcloud is only going to grow the service so we will soon see well above 100m+ subscribers.

Edit: Sony future streaming solution is going to use the Microsoft Azure server. 

"It is expected Sony will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud service to host its upcoming PlayStation streaming service."

Last edited by yvanjean - on 31 July 2020

yvanjean said:
DonFerrari said:

And you certainly will explain to us how 10 or 20M subscriber putting 120 (2.4B) for a 2,5 year worth of 2000 content will pay outright... Because the 3rd parties will get a cut, the cost to develop 1st party will also get that... while you do that Sony is getting 40M subs on plus paying just as much for multiplayer and some freebies much cheaper since they are older games.

I think you really need to differentiate between console sales and financial success. Besides both Microsoft and Sony are really going to benefit financially from the switch to all-digital, both aren't going anywhere anytime soon. 

Wow, your giving us the baseline for what Gamepass currently offers with10-20M subscribers.   

Xbox Live has 90 million monthly users, plus hundreds of thousands testing xCloud. Microsoft recently revealed Xbox Live user numbers for 2020, noting that the service attracts almost 90 million monthly players.Apr 30, 2020

You must have missed the news that both Xbox live and Gamepass service will get merge in September.

So, you are looking at 90M+ Gamepass subscribers. Microsoft is always going to have more subs when compare to Sony since they include all of Xbox consoles, Xcloud and PC. Xcloud is only going to grow the service so we will soon see well above 100m+ subscribers.

Edit: Sony future streaming solution is going to use the Microsoft Azure server. 

"It is expected Sony will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud service to host its upcoming PlayStation streaming service."

Do you have source for XBL 90M MAU? Last I remember it was about 50M, with Gold being possibly 50% of that.

PS+ have like 45M, but PSN MAU was like 110M beggining of 2020 if I`m not wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
yvanjean said:

I think you really need to differentiate between console sales and financial success. Besides both Microsoft and Sony are really going to benefit financially from the switch to all-digital, both aren't going anywhere anytime soon. 

Wow, your giving us the baseline for what Gamepass currently offers with10-20M subscribers.   

Xbox Live has 90 million monthly users, plus hundreds of thousands testing xCloud. Microsoft recently revealed Xbox Live user numbers for 2020, noting that the service attracts almost 90 million monthly players.Apr 30, 2020

You must have missed the news that both Xbox live and Gamepass service will get merge in September.

So, you are looking at 90M+ Gamepass subscribers. Microsoft is always going to have more subs when compare to Sony since they include all of Xbox consoles, Xcloud and PC. Xcloud is only going to grow the service so we will soon see well above 100m+ subscribers.

Edit: Sony future streaming solution is going to use the Microsoft Azure server. 

"It is expected Sony will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud service to host its upcoming PlayStation streaming service."

Do you have source for XBL 90M MAU? Last I remember it was about 50M, with Gold being possibly 50% of that.

PS+ have like 45M, but PSN MAU was like 110M beggining of 2020 if I`m not wrong.

https://www.vg247.com/2020/04/30/xbox-live-user-numbers-2020/#:~:text=Animal%20Crossing-,Xbox%20Live%20has%2090%20million%20monthly%20users,hundreds%20of%20thousands%20testing%20xCloud&text=Microsoft%20recently%20revealed%20Xbox%20Live,almost%2090%20million%20monthly%20players.

vs

SAN MATEO, Calif., January 6, 2020 - Following another year of successful holiday sales, Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) today announced that PlayStation™Network’s (PSN) December 2019 monthly active users have reached 103 million*1, demonstrating that gamers worldwide are enjoying PlayStation®’s offerings. Additionally, the PlayStation®4 (PS4™) console has sold through more than 106 million*2 globally, and the cumulative sales of PS4 software titles from retailers and PlayStation™Store (PS™Store) have reached 1.15 billion*3 as of December 31, 2019.

Both numbers can be miss leading because active users do not really mean paying users. Sony playing hardball with only supporting PS5 at the start of next-generation might hurt their subscription numbers compare to Microsoft who's expected to actually grow the numbers of subscriptions with Adding Xcloud and supporting the older consoles for the next two years.



derpysquirtle64 said:

You don't need to explain this to me as I totally understand what are you talking about. My question is: why do you think that success of games made by MS internal studios on Steam is suddenly gonna triple their revenue or something that you heavily suggest judging by your posts. What makes you think that it will suddenly result in such a huge growth of revenue that it will not only offset the potential tens of millions consoles sales loss and therefore the loss of all the royalties that could have been made from the software sales on these consoles, but also will allow MS to somehow become bigger than Playstation? That's the question

Its not just Steam, its a combination of many things. Steam is a major player in the gaming industry which has a massive market. The bigger the audience the bigger the potential of sales. Xbox is also focusing on Xcloud and GP on universal devices which only adds to the audience. If Xbox was solely a console brand, they wouldn't have anywhere near the potential sales for their software. Xbox's direction is clearly going into the way of the App, and i reckon after next gen, that's what we will have, just a Xbox App on multi devices.