Yes, I believe so.

I've checked the numbers too, but why dont we just wait and find out at the end of the Switches life cycle then.  Yes sales are up YoY, but sales will eventually not be up you know that too right?  

Also I've done the math but you cant do math on the change of market. Think of all the time where you hear companies didnt meet their quarterly/yearly expectations etc.., they did the math but yet they still ended up short. But I guess you haven't sat down and done any business.

Seems like you're trying to go out of your way with me just because I believe it wont hit 100M.  You know others on here also posted that they don't think itll hit 100M why not talk to them?  Was it cause I burned you the last time we had a discussion and that even a mod had to step in and put you in your place ;P 

Look, I'm down for more discussion but 1) this is just my opinion that I dont think it'll hit 100M, you can't argue opinion but you can argue a fact, and 2) you shouldn't say stuff like "Also you may not be aware that production is actually not in decline." when you can just simply google it and see that Nintendo did had to stop/slow down production, so not sure what you call that then.

But to keep this short as I mentioned at the beginning, why dont we just wait and find out at the end of the Switches life cycle then.  Or when it hits 100M feel free to msg me and I will gladly tell you that I was wrong :)

You just described the reason you see lite in stock but not the OG, There is more demand for the original vs the lite.

I guess Nintendo needs to push more for the OG Switch.  I have both versions and I use both equally, surprisingly, but if I had to choose one I'd go with the OG too.

First, I don't think it is an issue of getting them back into stock for buyers, it's people buying as many as they can when they hit shelves to try and turn a profit. Jump on Facebook Marketplace, you will see all sorts NIB Switches for sale above retail.

Second, the Switch will mostly likely be to almost 100 million units sold in 5 years (if not over it), so anything less than that is a joke. Add in two or three more solid years of 15+ million units per year and a couple more years of it selling out inventories and there is no reason not to think that this console will not easily be pushing to beat the PS2.

Any fears of it having the Wii drop I think are funny, 4K gaming will not kill the Switch like HD gaming killed the Wii. Add in the huge handheld market as well that is still migrating to the Switch.

It hits 90m easily next year and at current pace it's possibly be mid 90m by the end of next year are you really telling us you think it won't sell 5-10m in the year after?

Won't hit 100m?? haha what world are you living in? I don't understand these completely unrealistic predictions. You may as well predict PS4 will never hit 115 million.

It will be in the 90 millions by end of next year, with about two years left before it is replaced. At this point any prediction of under 115 million is absurd. Even if Nintendo replaced it very early (like Spring 2023), which we pretty much know they won't because common sense (or rather: business sense) and they've said multiple times now they want to keep the Switch around for a while, even in that early retirement scenario Switch would still finish at around 115 million. Assuming a more realistic replacement date of spring 2024 means it'll sell more like 125 to 130 million.

Realistic yearly sales:

2020 - low to mid 70s mil (~24mil)

2021 - low to mid 90s mil (~20 mil)

2022 - mid to high 100s mil (~16mil)

2023 - high 110s mil (~12 mil)

2024 (likely spring replaced) mid 120s mil (~7 mil)

2025 and beyond a few more mil = ~130 mil

Even if you knock a couple million off each year that still puts it around 120 million. A prediction of less than 100 million means you think Nintendo is going to replace the hottest video game system in over a decade in the middle of its life cycle......like literally the Switch 2 would have to come out probably next summer and Nintendo would have to refuse to drop the price of the Switch and just keep it at $300 forever, in order to stunt sales enough to have the Switch only make it to 90-something million.

Do you not remember the 3DS tanked before having a price cut and the DS tanked before getting a lite version ? Switch got a moderate boost in July last year after they release an updated battery Switch console without even marketing it. I'm sure a 50$ price cut will come handy next year if it starts to decline.

But for now, we don't even know how much it can sell each week since it is out of stock WW

Again.. same thing. Price cut saved the 3DS and the 2DS came pretty late in the life cycle so it's pricing was already pretty cheap. They did A LOT of 2DS + MK7 80$ bundle here, probably less than that in the US and it made it survive it's last years. 

I'm sure MANY are waiting for the OG Switch to get a price reduction. There is a big market for that you know. 

For the ones saying the production is declining.. y'all don't get it the demand is just sky high and the production is actually higher than usual, they just still can't match it hence the low amount of stock WW. I do think it should stay low in stock all year but still manage to hit 25 millions.. while being supply constrained. 

No. I expect Nintendo to release the successor for the Switch as soon as holiday 2022 with better tech and pushing an even bigger library, with full retrocompatibilty, following the current success and outselling both Xbox Series X and PS5.

Of course, that if they continue with the same ideas behind the Switch: hybrid affordable console with a big and diverse library from indies, third and first party titles, plus a very good marketing machine behind it.

Holiday 2022 is not even remotely realistic. That would be a GBA type scenario where they rushed out a new system and tried to treat it as a different market than the GBA because they were afraid by how much more advanced the PSP was than the GBA. There is no equivalent scenario to that for the Switch. Unless Sony suddenly announces that the PS5 also comes in a portable version haha, then no, holiday 2022 is a year early from even an early launch of Switch 2. A 2024 launch should be about right.