V-r0cK said:
You are correct, I just found some articles dated a few weeks ago that their production is almost recovered. Well I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong about that. But I'll just stick to saying that no the Switch wont over take the PS4, and sure ill take a stab and still guess it wont hit 100M sales, maybe in the 90Ms? lol |
Won't hit 100m?? haha what world are you living in? I don't understand these completely unrealistic predictions. You may as well predict PS4 will never hit 115 million.
It will be in the 90 millions by end of next year, with about two years left before it is replaced. At this point any prediction of under 115 million is absurd. Even if Nintendo replaced it very early (like Spring 2023), which we pretty much know they won't because common sense (or rather: business sense) and they've said multiple times now they want to keep the Switch around for a while, even in that early retirement scenario Switch would still finish at around 115 million. Assuming a more realistic replacement date of spring 2024 means it'll sell more like 125 to 130 million.
Realistic yearly sales:
2020 - low to mid 70s mil (~24mil)
2021 - low to mid 90s mil (~20 mil)
2022 - mid to high 100s mil (~16mil)
2023 - high 110s mil (~12 mil)
2024 (likely spring replaced) mid 120s mil (~7 mil)
2025 and beyond a few more mil = ~130 mil
Even if you knock a couple million off each year that still puts it around 120 million. A prediction of less than 100 million means you think Nintendo is going to replace the hottest video game system in over a decade in the middle of its life cycle...
...like literally the Switch 2 would have to come out probably next summer and Nintendo would have to refuse to drop the price of the Switch and just keep it at $300 forever, in order to stunt sales enough to have the Switch only make it to 90-something million.
