There is a conflict between this page and the other about ring fit, 19285 here and 12285 on the other page.

Switch sales this year up to this week is on par with it's sales last year on week 42. In other words, it has a 15 week lead over last year.

Let that sink in for a while...

PS4 down over 200k with FFVII and TLOU 2. A long wait until the PS5 comes out and then poof goes PS4.

Is this a new record low for the PS4, or has it been lower?

I feel like we seen it go 3k. 

Here:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/444409/japan-weekly-week-27-2020/

I'm about 80% certain at this point that overall Shipped+Digital numbers for New Horizons have passed 7 million and is getting close to tying Gold/Silver.

I'm sure we'll know more in 3 weeks with Nintendos next quarterly report.

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2019:

1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2.744.658
2. Smash Ultimate - 1.057.012
3. Super Mario Maker 2 - 774.102
4. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 735.437
5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 587.829
6. Minecraft - 579.998
7. Super Mario Party - 464.208
8. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - 456.426
9. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 446.649
10. Ring Fit Adventure - 443.118

TOTAL: 8.289.437

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2020:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.058.226
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 658.970
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 597.160
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 356.071
5. Smash Ultimate - 291.828
6. Minecraft - 286.766
7. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 259.513
8. Splatoon 2 - 225.989
9. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 221.713
10. Super Mario Party - 217.418

TOTAL: 8.173.654

Next week 2020 would likely overtake 2019 total with 25 Weeks left of the year - including the biggest ones we see in terms of sales(outside of Animal Crossing New Horizon launch). Usually, Nintendo sells 50% of Software/Hardware in the Q4 period, this will be difficult to achieve because nothing can match with New Horizon hype and the way it has risen the demand for the system.

New Horizon sales are just insane

FAMITSU TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME(physical):

9. Brain Age 2 (DS) - 5.082.322

10. Animal Crossing: New Leaf (3DS) - 5.067.988

11. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 5.058.226

Next week Animal Crossing: New Horizons will become the 9th best selling game of all time overtaking Brain Age 2 and New Leaf

In the last 14 weeks, Nintendo has sold 1M Switches & 2.2M physical copies of New Horizon

Currently, the game has 35% physical attach rate in Japan, assuming it sold 1M-1.5M ditital we are looking at 42-46% attach rate on 14.1M user based for 16 Week on the Market, the only game that sold more copies quicker was Pokémon Gold / Silver which ended up being 4th Best Selling game of all time but before the end of the year.

If we see 1M Switch units sold in the next 12 weeks, I would estimate we would see something like 800K units of New Horizon

Ring Fit Adventure could be the sleeper hit in Q3

The unknown question is Ring Fit Adventure's sales in Q3, the game sales are strongly linked with supply. So if Nintendo provides a similar supply to Q2 we would be looking at 300K sales, but it's possible for Nintendo to provide a larger supply to sell 500-800K units easily. The game is mainly limited by the physical peripheral and is not meeting demand anywhere in the World. Currently, in most markets we are seeing stock disappear as soon as it's shipped to retailers. This is why it could be that the game really blows up during this quarter if they have finally solved their supply chain woes. 

Paper Mario to me is #3 for Q3

Paper Mario will be third but it remains to be seen how much it is able to sell. I would estimate it's sales around 350K for the Quarter for the time being. 

Predictions by Q3:

• Animal Crossing: New Horizon >5.9M
• Ring Fit Adventure >900K
• Pokemon Sword / Shield - >750K
• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >525K
• Smash Ultimate & Minecraft >375K
• Paper Mario: The Origami King >350K
• Splatoon 2 & Clubhouse Games >325K
• Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training & Super Mario Party >275K

TOTAL for TOP 10 by end of Q3 >10M

Another interesting thing to watch out for is the number of games that end up selling over 300K in 2020, don't be surprised if we have over 20 titles with over 300K in sales. 

NSW 23  (9 of which are third party)
PS4 7 (4 of which are third party)

This week Switch has 9/13 = 69% of third party games on the top 30.  This is not terribly different from the past two weeks.  Most third party games on the Top 30 are Switch games now.  It should be obvious that NSW is the platform of choice for third party developers in Japan.  That is the platform where third party games are selling, it has the largest install base, and it is powerful enough to play about 90% of the third party games coming out of Japan.

Most weeks going forward, I'd expect Switch to have the majority of the third party games in the top 30.