The game shipped 5 million units at launch weekend, which was enough to "break even" on development costs. It was the fastest selling launch in franchise history at the time.

So yeah, I think they were able to make a little profit off the game. Juuuust a little.

Thats not how it works, I work in Finance and I can tell you that financial news releases from companies will do everything they can to be vague and paint a good picture since most of the people do not have a proper knowledge of how it works.

For example, what exactly covers the development costs? The total revenue generated by the sales or juts the portion that stays with square? The number already exclude taxes? The development costs includes the other products related to FFXV that may not had good sales, like to 2 hour movie and the other related games? Does it include all the marketing expenses? Was there any write off of costs when the game was still called FF Vs? What about the development costs post launch? Also, development costs does include overhead costs, what about the net final profitability after all overhead costs?

We will never know the answer to those questions and believe me, they will never tell us in their financial statements.

Im not saying the game had a loss, just saying the probably the net final % profitability of the game was probably lower than the good old FF7-FF10 times.

FFXV was sold for 20 EU 2 years after release. That sums it up, loads of unsold copies in retailers. Overshipped game.

I don't think any main FF release ever really flopped. They always enjoyed over average reviews and sales compared to their competitors. Why would they be scared now ?

It still sold over 9 million which is good for any game. And about average for a Final Fantasy.

FFXV was in development hell as they were constantly switching between platforms, engines and people internally. SE these days are a lot more focused and streamlined. It wouldn't make sense of SE to be scared since its their cash cow. Plus they have selected their preferred engine (Unreal Engine) so development times should at least be more consistent now; which is around 5-6 years average (going by recent games on current gen - KHIII, FFVII Remake).

They might be scared of falling into development issues that may drag the game's release for years, like it happened with FFXV. Its a lot of work and a lot of assets put into it. It must be much more comfortable for them that they can remake an old game, release it in 3 years and it breaks sales records.
I dont think they fear it'll flop with the current standing and popularity of the franchise.

While I certainly haven’t enjoyed any of their games since 12, financially I think they are still making lots of money. Final Fantasy still carries a lot of weight and will sell a lot off of name alone. My hope is they find some new writers and stop trying to make action games...

Sums what up? That those unsold overshipped copies of FFXV still sold more than FFXIII?

OT:  Since PS1, it seems like every big FF games has about 2-3 year gap while FFXV to FFVIIr has a 4 year gap.  So dont expect a new big FF game until at least 2022.  It wont mean FF16 will be next but more likely another FFVII remake part 2. 

I dont think Square is scared to release FF16 but more likely they just want to take their time or have other projects in mind like Kingdom Hearts or Project Aitha etc.   

As well, Square hasn't been "traditional" in a sense of releasing games numerically one after another as their big FF game since after FFX.  We can no longer assume that Square should be working on FF16 (ie. Square didnt release a FFXV last gen but rather focused on FFXIII-2 and FFXIII Lightning returns)

If they are afraid to release a new game of their most successful, famous and influential franchise they'd better given up gaming industry altogether

Have you seen FF15? They clearly have no sense of shame.